Category: Uncategorized

The OMB leader named Mick.

For the poor, he won’t care–not a lick.

If you’re rich, he’s the man.

Big tax cuts are the plan.

And the white working class has been tricked.

It has always been clear that the Obama Administration viewed a negotiated settlement as the only acceptable solution to the Syrian problem.  Negotiations were only likely to succeed if none of the parties had the ability to win a complete victory.  As a result, the objective was to maintain an acceptable balance of power, and to force a stalemate.

The concept wasn’t pretty, to be sure, but it made cold political sense.  The problem was that the Administration wasn’t willing to ratchet up its commitment to the rebels when the Russians intervened in force.  There were several legitimate reasons for that, including the lack of legal justification and domestic political support for our intervention, the fear that the rebels might not prove to be very “moderate,” and obvious concerns about the risks of a military conflict with the Russians.  The bottom line, however, is that, whatever the merits of the approach, the execution was flawed, and the outcome was a failure.

What can we learn from this experience?  If there is a lesson here, it is to avoid public overseas interventions when you know the other side is more motivated than you are to win.  The application of this to military support for Ukraine is obvious.

Yesterday’s NYT had a fairly lengthy article about limited experiments with the UBI, in Finland and elsewhere.  There is a pretty compelling theoretical argument in favor of the UBI;  the two countervailing questions are cost and the disincentive to work. The experiments will give us some real world data to see whether the concept can be successful.

This is exactly how the issue should be addressed.  I approve.

The demise of the TPP has dealt a severe blow to the effort to construct a rules-based system to either accommodate or deter China, depending on its behavior. Trump thinks rules are for suckers, anyway;  power is all that matters.  In light of that, how, if at all, does he propose to stop Chinese aggression in the South China Sea?

Trump’s principal concern about China is its trade surplus, so it may be safely assumed that he would be willing to swap Chinese predominance in its immediate neighborhood for a better deal on commercial issues.  Assuming, for purposes of argument, that such a deal cannot be made, here are his options:

1.  Indifference:  Trump could simply decide that East Asia is a far away place about which we know little, and permit the Chinese to convert it into a sphere of influence.  Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, among others, would become Chinese vassal states.  Call it the Xi Doctrine.

2.  A Show of Force:  Perceiving that time is not on his side, Trump could order an attack on the lightly populated Chinese “islands” early in his administration. The objective would be to send a message of American military predominance without creating too great a risk of escalation.

3.  Encirclement, with Russian Assistance:  As part of a deal in which Putin is given a free hand in the former Soviet Union, Trump could call on the Russians to ratchet up tensions along the Chinese border, thereby relieving some of the pressure in the South China Sea.

Nixon and Kissinger reached out to China in the early 1970’s in order to create leverage with the Soviet Union.  This was known as “playing the China card.”  If Trump were to choose Option #3, he would be doing precisely the opposite.

 

Donald Trump doesn’t have enough of an attention span to want to run the country on a day-to-day basis.  He wants to be:  (a) the center of attention; (b) popular; (c) in charge of all negotiations of any consequence; and (d) the man who makes all of the really important decisions.  Everything else can and will be delegated.

Carrier is a good example of what we can expect over the next four years:  a very public intervention in the economy which created lots of favorable headlines, but ultimately accomplished less than met the eye.

 

The Twitter King

“Our firm is still struggling” said the big CEO.

“We have to move lots of jobs to Mexico.”

“The wall’s a distraction, created by clowns.”

TWEET, went the Trumpster, and then he backed down.

 

“We care very deeply about workers’ rights.

If you try to erode them, you’re in for a fight.

Opponents of unions are ignorant slobs.”

TWEET, went the Trumpster, and he lost his job.

 

She’s really pissed off by the big oil spill.

Of corporate malfeasance she’s had quite her fill.

She’s called out the system as blind and corrupt.

TWEET, went the Trumpster, and she shut up.

 

A cop shot his cousin three times in the back.

He thinks that it happened because he was black.

He called on the President to take a side.

TWEET, went the Trumpster, and he had to hide.

 

Some call this bullying–some call it worse.

For four years it seems that we’re probably cursed.

You can do lots of harm with a casual tweet.

I just wish he’d learn to be much more discreet.

I’m not old enough to hate Henry Kissinger.  His realism always seemed to me to be an island of sanity in a sea of imperial overstretch and misplaced idealism.  As a result, for me, his original sin was not Cambodia or Vietnam, but the Iraq War, for which his support was a clear violation of his principles.   Metternich would have known better.

There is an interview with Kissinger in the most recent edition of The Atlantic which largely focuses on Obama’s record with regard to China.  Kissinger gives Obama a B+ for his China policy, which seems fair to me, but he criticizes the President for lacking a long-term vision in the Far East, which does not.  It is reasonable to say that Obama’s approach to foreign affairs has been largely fact-driven and ad hoc, but his “pivot to Asia” was an exception to that.  He actually did have a long-term goal of creating a rules-driven economic and security framework in the Pacific which could either accommodate or thwart the rise of China, depending on the behavior of the Chinese.  The cornerstone of that approach was the TPP.

Now, with the election of Trump, this approach is in ruins.  More on that in a subsequent post.

 

 

 

Given Trump’s authoritarian tendencies, it is virtually a given that he will attempt to stretch his legal powers to the maximum extent possible.  When that happens, the first line of defense will be the federal judiciary.

You can expect to see plenty of litigation filed in District Courts in blue states. Many of the judges in these areas will be Obama appointees, and Trump cannot fire them.  The outcomes will depend on the facts and the legal issues, of course, but in general, I would anticipate that Trump’s won/loss record won’t be very good.

How will the man on golf cart react to adverse court orders?  Will he obey or ignore them?  Based on his behavior relative to the judiciary to date, it’s hard to be very optimistic on this point.

              The Way It Is

Hispanic guy stands with his tools in hand at the bus stop, man.

Praying that the axe won’t fall.

A redneck guy comes driving by; sees him there and sighs.

Just for fun he says, “Build the wall.”

 

That’s just the way it is.

Some things will never change.

That’s just the way it is.

Ah, but don’t you believe it.

 

I said, “Hey, old dude! Why the attitude?  What’s he done to you?”

He just stared at me and sneered.

Said “Ain’t you white?  Ain’t you seen the light?  Gonna make things right!”

Tried to understand his fears.

 

That’s just the way it is.

Some things will never change.

That’s just the way it is.

That’s just the way it is, it is, it is.

 

Parody of “The Way It Is” by Bruce Hornsby.

The states can provide a check on the aspirations of the new GOP regime in the following ways:

1.  Medicaid:  Some red states agreed to the Medicaid expansion, including Mike Pence’s Indiana.  There will be resistance to a complete repeal of the expansion.

2.  Abortion restrictions:  Trump apparently believes that abortion should be left to the states after Roe is reversed, but it is doubtful that most Republican congressmen agree.  If Congress were in a position to completely ban abortion throughout the entire country, I don’t see how those regulations could effectively be enforced without a substantial amount of cooperation from the states.  In many states, it would not be forthcoming.

3.  Environmental regulations:  Blue states, particularly California, are in a position to adopt more stringent regulations than the federal government.  Car manufacturers in particular will have to adjust their standards accordingly. Don’t be surprised if federal preemption becomes a major issue during the next four years.

4.  Immigration enforcement:  Barring a huge increase in the size of the federal government, some state assistance will be necessary to facilitate mass deportations.   It won’t happen in California.

I  predicted three of the four finalists several weeks ago, and I picked the third and fourth place finishers correctly, but there were even more country voters out there than I thought.  As a result, the guy with the cowboy hat, the big beard, and the name that sounds like a brand of condom won even though he had another contestant in his lane.

Hey, what did you expect?  I underestimated the number of Trump voters, too. By and large, they’re the same people.

Contrary to the opinions held in some circles, military leaders tend to be very conservative about the use of force, because they understand the risks better than civilians.  In that sense, the concerns about the number of generals in the cabinet is unfounded.

While Flynn is a notable exception, you can expect the military, as a whole, to push back on torturing suspected terrorists, and they will object to establishing any kind of unholy alliance with Russia.  His comments during the campaign notwithstanding, Trump is likely to show some deference to the leadership, so there is some doubt that he will ultimately establish the kind of relationship with Putin that he so obviously desires.

I speak of the man known as Rex.

Employees call him “Sir” and not “Tex.”

He’s made so much money

It’s not even funny

But power can trump even sex.

So the fox will stand guard on the hens.

The pigs slop themselves in the pen.

They’ll kick up the dust

But the joke is on us

It’s much worse than the Bush days again.

The Energy Czar named Rick Perry.

Of his views we should be pretty wary.

He’s one of those fools

Who just loves fossil fuels.

And that, I must say, is quite scary.