Cromwell

Life in the time of Trump.

The Iran war is cursed.

We admit we really suck

But the Democrats are worse.

It’s not me who’s saying that;

It comes from J.D. Vance.

Notwithstanding what he asks

They’ll get no second chance.

The midterms aren’t significant only for the next two years; they will have an impact on 2028, as well. That includes elections for relatively obscure state election officials and legislators, because their cooperation will be necessary to run the Green Bay sweep.

It isn’t all about Congress, important as it is. Keep your eyes on 2020 election deniers in swing states.

Do you miss the fifties? If you’re a white male Christian who thinks that white male Christians should have a monopoly of social, economic, and political power–in other words, a MAGA voter–you probably do, even if that meant much higher taxes, black-and-white TV with three choices, and a crappy car. For the rest of us, not so much.

The MAGA fifties revival includes the measles. I had all of the usual childhood illnesses, including the measles; it wasn’t a walk in the park. Now they’re back, thanks to RFK and his phobia about vaccines. Will polio be next?

Based on his behavior on January 6, Josh Hawley has impeccable MAGA credentials. He has strong ties to the religious right. Unlike J.D., he cannot logically be held responsible for the foreign policy failures of Trump 2.0. Finally, he presents himself as a genuine economic populist, not a faux one, like most of the Trumpsters. As a result, there is a lane available to him if he decides to take on J.D. in 2028. Will he do it?

While 2028 is probably the last realistic opportunity for Ted Cruz, and Ron DeSantis will become increasingly irrelevant after he leaves office at the end of this year, Hawley has plenty of time to wait on events. The possibility that he will run cannot be dismissed, particularly if the polls indicate the GOP needs to move in a very different direction, but I think it is more likely than not that Hawley will sit this one out and run in 2032 or 2036.

1876, that is. You will recall that the results of the election were highly disputed and that the issue was resolved by a corrupt deal which culminated in the effective end of Reconstruction. J.D. has expressed the opinion that this deal should be the template for dealing with future election issues involving allegations of fraud and the selection of competing groups of electors.

About a week ago, I expressed some hope that J.D. would be reluctant to become one of the most infamous characters in American political history by using the Green Bay sweep to become president. While I am not certain that Trump will authorize the use of the military, the DOJ, and right-wing mobs for the benefit of anyone but himself, and my previous opinion still holds true for the creation of a pure military dictatorship, I have otherwise changed my mind. Based on his previous statements, there is every reason to believe that J.D. will embrace the Green Bay sweep if it is offered to him.

I attribute the events at Cornell to three factors: first, the perennial problem with fraternity culture, which existed long before I was born; second, the impacts of social media, which put the “gang” in gangbang; and third, the permission slip we gave for this kind of behavior when we elected a man found liable for sexual assault as our head of state. Trump has already expressed more concern for the due process rights of the male participants than for the feelings of the victim. Are you surprised?

The criminal law is a blunt instrument, and the facts are murky here, so the new investigation has to be done with great care. It is highly unlikely that all of the participants are equally culpable; some of them may not be guilty of criminal acts at all. What we can say with confidence, however, is that all of the participants treated the victim like a piece of meat. Anyone who was aware of what was going on and did nothing to stop it deserves our condemnation even if the criminal law is not applied.

I was watching the Ohio State-Iowa game yesterday when I noted something I had never seen before; the GOP Senate PAC was running commercials attacking the Democratic candidates in Iowa and Ohio on a national sports broadcast. That meant the PAC was paying inflated advertising rates to reach millions of people who do not live in Iowa or Ohio. It was about the most inefficient use of campaign funds I could imagine, and it suggests that the GOP has more money than it knows how to spend properly.

I have also noticed that a significant and growing number of commercials are peddling AI-related services. Many of them promote companies with names I do not recognize. Can this last, or is this another dotcom bubble? TBD.

Jamieson Greer, the USTR, attempted to persuade his fellow G20 trade representatives to unite against the Chinese export machine earlier this week. He failed, largely because the rest of the world views Trump’s arbitrary tariffs as a threat of similar magnitude, although Greer loyally denied this was the case.

In a related note, Trump went to Iowa and announced that a massive new steel plant would be built there in the near future. If the plant is actually built–as usual with Trump, there are serious doubts about it–it would generate more product than is necessary for the American market. Could the prospect of large American steel exports have influenced the positions of the other trade representatives? I leave it to you to decide whether this is a mixed message.

Trump gives himself an A+ for his first two years. Is that a fair grade?

He started an unsuccessful war, drove up prices, trashed more institutions than I can name, cut taxes for the wealthy, promoted unregulated AI, imposed tariffs on a whim, initiated a grossly unfair and economically unproductive deportation program, did his best to quash dissent, and turned the DOJ into a purely partisan operation. Would you give that record an A+?

Back in the day, US presidents used to refer to the shared experience of fighting Japanese imperialism during World War II to persuade the Chinese government to cooperate with us. This kind of appeal worked with some individual Chinese citizens who had suffered through the war, but not with the regime.

Xi has flipped the script. During last week’s summit, he argued that Japan was becoming militaristic again, and that America and China should work together to prevent a revival of Japanese imperialism.

LOL. The real issue for America is Japanese pacifism, not militarism.

J.D.’s Godly Society is based on an American manufacturing renaissance that creates tens of millions of great jobs for male workers. As a result, women can afford to stay home and have lots of babies.

But the future of manufacturing is robots. Virtually every function in a factory can be mechanized. Even the maintenance of the robots could be assigned to specialist robots. This is already starting to happen in China.

In short, we could have J.D.’s domestic manufacturing renaissance with a massive decrease in factory jobs. Then what? How do we get to the Godly Society under those conditions?

He had better hope that the combination of robots and AI bring about endless abundance, and that the owners of the new economy are willing to redistribute their incredible wealth to the rest of us.

Trump has clearly convinced himself that, like Louis XIV, he is the state. It follows from that premise that the peasants–er, taxpayers–should pay for commercials promoting him and his opinions.

The logic is plausible, but the premise is ludicrous. Even GOP bigwigs admit as much, but they won’t do anything to stop him, because while he may not be the state, he is the personification of the base.

Reactionaries love running against secular liberals. It’s a huge advantage in many rural areas, and it permits them to assume an air of moral superiority, regardless of the merits of the individual candidate.

The midterms, however, have created a new challenge–running against left-wing Christian candidates. This drives the Republicans nuts. Their typical response is to accuse the blue team candidate of being insincere, or even a heretic. After all, isn’t it self-evident that Jesus loves guns, fossil fuels, and capital punishment and hates abortion, trans people, immigrants, and wealth redistribution?

Well, actually, no.

Imagine you are the CEO of an American auto manufacturer. On the one hand, you have Trump driving up your prices with tariffs, screwing up your supply chains, and telling you to build cars that run on gasoline. If you comply with his wishes, you will effectively be giving up all of your overseas markets. On the other hand, the Democrats might win power in 2028, and they want more electric cars. How do you plan for the future?

It’s a difficult task, to be sure. You probably hedge your bets. You reduce the production of electric cars, but not to zero, and wait for the next change in policy.

It seemed to set up perfectly for the GOP senators. They would hurl allegations at Jack Smith, talk over his answers, and get on Fox News. Trump and the base would be pleased. What could go wrong?

As anyone with more brains and less ego than the senators–that is, most Americans–would have predicted, Smith made them look foolish. Too bad, guys. Let’s play two.