Cromwell

New law school students are quickly taught that the text of a document controls when it is clear, and that the remainder of the document and its historical background can be used to establish intent when it is not. This approach works perfectly well with contracts and statutes. Does it make sense as applied to the Constitution?

As far as it goes, absolutely. The problem is that a 200+ year old document with lots of very general language is rarely clear, and that establishing intent through historical research, if done honestly and correctly, is an extremely complex task. As a result, some other source must be used to fill in the gaps in the record.

Thomas gets over this hurdle by cherry-picking history in an unprincipled way in order to get the reactionary outcome he desires. Alito, for his part, apparently gives indications in his new book that he will be using “common good constitutionalism” to fill in the gaps in the historical record. That means medieval Catholic theologians whose influence on the drafting of the Constitution was minimal will be playing a large role in his jurisprudence for the foreseeable future.

Right-leaning lawyers have complained that the Warren Court simply made up new constitutional rights in order to further the ideology of a majority of the justices for decades. The New Right is turning originalism into a Trojan Horse to do the exact same thing in the opposite direction.

With every passing day, the quacking from the lame duck in the White House gets louder. As of today, there is a better than average chance that his successor will be a Democrat. He will enjoy the use of all of the new powers that SCOTUS has granted him over formerly independent agencies and the executive branch, not to mention the immunities provided from criminal prosecution. How will SCOTUS respond over the next two years?

The justices claim they don’t pay any attention to polls or election returns. There is every reason to believe that Thomas, Alito, and the three liberals will follow their own advice. For the others, however, the next two years will be a minefield. Gorsuch and Roberts in particular would be wise to make a display of their independence from Trump’s agenda if they want to avoid allegations of hypocrisy when they inevitably vote to restrain executive power during the next Democratic administration.

I use a PC that runs on Windows, so I understand the contribution that Bill Gates made to my life. I occasionally buy items on Amazon, and I watch documentaries on Amazon Prime, so I don’t resent the fortune accumulated by Jeff Bezos. I’m not on Facebook, but I know plenty of people who rely on it, so I don’t ask why Mark Zuckerberg is a billionaire many times over. But what about Elon Musk? What has he ever done for me, or anyone around me?

I don’t drive a Tesla. In any event, Chinese electric cars are better and cheaper than his. I don’t use Starlink or X, either. I don’t see how Musk has made any positive contribution to my life. What, then, justifies his status as a trillionaire? Why should the American political system continue to treat him as a demigod whose whims and weird ideology will define the future?

Beats me.

Recent history tells us that undecided voters break against the party in power in presidential elections when the administration is unpopular, as it is today. It happened in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Does that provide a guide for the midterms?

Not exactly. The outcome of the midterms will revolve less around swing voters and more around the willingness of less engaged 2024 Trump voters to go to the polls to support lackluster Republicans. Angry Democrats and independents will make sure their voices are heard; will waves of commercials attacking the left for being weak and woke do the same for the right?

The outcome of several key Senate races, particularly in the Midwest, will depend on the answer to that question. The polls suggest that those races could go either way. I make no predictions at this point.

Trump says he should have won about eight Nobel Prizes by now. He’s right, but only if they awarded Nobel Prizes for greed, ignorance, narcissism, bad taste, autocracy, bullying, incoherent speeches, and bad hair and makeup.

Until then, I’m afraid he’ll just have to wait.

Recruiting commercials for the military used to be rather sober affairs which emphasized the opportunity to become educated in a tech field at the government’s expense and to assist helpless civilians. As you would expect, Hegseth will have none of that. His commercials show images of ripped, patriotic soldiers relentlessly blowing stuff up. It looks like something out of a video game rather than real warfare.

With that as background, are you surprised that he wants to livestream the execution of a notorious criminal? It probably won’t even bother him that our opponent in the ongoing war is one of the few countries that does the same thing.

Peter Thiel is J.D.’s patron and friend. A few days ago, during one of his Antichrist lectures, Thiel attacked Pope Leo for expressing concerns about the impacts of AI. What does this mean for J.D.?

It will be hugely embarrassing. Leo and the base are on the same page with regard to data centers and AI. The connection with Thiel will be a huge issue in 2028.

In one respect, Trump has been very lucky; his rudderless and largely defunded FEMA has not been challenged by any hurricanes this year. His luck runs out on Saturday. Isaias will strike Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 storm in less than 48 hours.

To make things worse from Trump’s perspective, these are extremely red areas. If FEMA falls short in the recovery effort, it will be predominantly members of his base who will feel the pain.

At least Kristi Noem won’t be there to slow everything down.

Trump lost the 2020 election as a result of his shambolic response to the virus. How do I know that? Because the rest of the GOP ran well ahead of him.

Harris lost the 2024 election because Biden was blamed for the high inflation of 2021 and 2022. Most of the inflation was a worldwide phenomenon that was outside of the US government’s control, and the rest of it was a side effect of a recovery that was the fastest in the world, but the electorate didn’t see it that way.

Trump was elected to bring back the economy of 2019. Instead, he took his narrow victory as a mandate to start wars on a whim and govern despotically at home. While the stock market went up, so did inflation and interest rates. As a result, the GOP is likely to take a bad beating in the midterms.

The overall message here is that, while most Americans vote on the basis of identity politics, elections are actually won by persuading swing voters without a strong party affiliation whose primary interest is in the state of the economy. In other words, in the end, results matter more than ideology and identity, even in today’s badly polarized society.

That’s normal, and it should be reassuring, except that Germans didn’t vote for Nazis in 1932 because they wanted a world war and the extermination of the Jews. When you open Pandora’s Box, lots of nasty stuff that you didn’t foresee flies out.

Pete Hegseth has made it clear what he doesn’t want in his military: “fatties;” “trannies;” “beardos;” and “weirdos.” His military will be a ferociously patriotic group of right-wing Christian crusaders who will blow up anything and kill anyone at his command. In short, they will be a warrior caste similar to the Knights Templars.

The problem with this approach is that a successful military in today’s world relies heavily on the ability to work with local populations and to develop and master new forms of technology. These skills have no reasonable relationship to personal appearance or sex. What difference does it make if a drone operator has a beard?

It should also be pointed out that Saladin wiped out the poorly led Templars over 800 years ago. Hegseth should take notice.

Peter Thiel apparently believes that God has given mankind a sacred mission to improve himself and his environment through the use of new technology. It follows from that premise that anyone standing in the way of technological improvement–politicians, bureaucrats, judges, and activists–is a form of the Antichrist. Does this make sense?

Of all of the stupid and weird ways to read the Bible, this one is close to the top of the list. Didn’t he read the bit about Adam and Eve and the Tree of Knowledge?

Life in the time of Trump.

The Iran war is cursed.

We admit we really suck

But the Democrats are worse.

It’s not me who’s saying that;

It comes from J.D. Vance.

Notwithstanding what he asks

They’ll get no second chance.

The midterms aren’t significant only for the next two years; they will have an impact on 2028, as well. That includes elections for relatively obscure state election officials and legislators, because their cooperation will be necessary to run the Green Bay sweep.

It isn’t all about Congress, important as it is. Keep your eyes on 2020 election deniers in swing states.

Do you miss the fifties? If you’re a white male Christian who thinks that white male Christians should have a monopoly of social, economic, and political power–in other words, a MAGA voter–you probably do, even if that meant much higher taxes, black-and-white TV with three choices, and a crappy car. For the rest of us, not so much.

The MAGA fifties revival includes the measles. I had all of the usual childhood illnesses, including the measles; it wasn’t a walk in the park. Now they’re back, thanks to RFK and his phobia about vaccines. Will polio be next?

Based on his behavior on January 6, Josh Hawley has impeccable MAGA credentials. He has strong ties to the religious right. Unlike J.D., he cannot logically be held responsible for the foreign policy failures of Trump 2.0. Finally, he presents himself as a genuine economic populist, not a faux one, like most of the Trumpsters. As a result, there is a lane available to him if he decides to take on J.D. in 2028. Will he do it?

While 2028 is probably the last realistic opportunity for Ted Cruz, and Ron DeSantis will become increasingly irrelevant after he leaves office at the end of this year, Hawley has plenty of time to wait on events. The possibility that he will run cannot be dismissed, particularly if the polls indicate the GOP needs to move in a very different direction, but I think it is more likely than not that Hawley will sit this one out and run in 2032 or 2036.