Cromwell

While Trump’s political objectives in Iran change on an hourly basis, the military goals have been clear: to take out Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and navy. How is that campaign going, and do the objectives make sense?

As to the nukes, of course, Trump said we obliterated the program last June. The Iranian supply of enriched uranium, the centerpiece of what remains of the program, is missing. Building short-range missiles is pretty easy—even Hamas had them—so they can be replaced quickly, as the Iranians did after the June war. Finally, the Iranian navy is no threat to anyone as an offensive weapon. It only presents a problem if Iran is attacked.

The truth is that Trump can only win his war for good with a ground invasion and an occupation. Otherwise, he is requiring America to be Bibi’s yard guy on a regular basis. The latter is far more likely.

There was a time, not so long ago, when Trump used tariffs to show the world he was the boss. Look at him sideways, or say something bad about him on social media, and he would shove a big tariff up your butt the next morning.

But the Supreme Court took that kind of arbitrary power away from him, and his military action apparently worked in Venezuela, so now he prefers bombs to tariffs. The next question is, how far will he go? Will the next victim be London? Mexico City? Ottawa? New York City?

Trump has encouraged domestic oil production and discouraged the use of renewable energy sources in an effort to achieve what he calls “energy dominance.” Oil prices, however, are set on a worldwide basis; the loss of supply outside the Western Hemisphere consequently impacts prices here even if there are no shortages in America.

In other words, Trump is exposing us to escalating energy prices by attacking Iran even if we have accomplished his “energy dominance” objective. This would not be a problem if we had more clean energy, but that, of course, is a scam.

Not Iran. They are being pulverized, and their retaliation has been ineffective.

Not us. Instead of changing the regime, we have strengthened its position. We are now Bibi’s yard guy. And gas prices are soaring.

Not Putin. Higher oil prices will help him fight Ukraine, but he’s losing a key ally and looking impotent.

Not China or Europe. They can’t do anything to stop the chaos, and they’re paying higher prices for oil.

No, the winners are Israel and some international oil companies.

Donald Trump wrecks everything in his path. He brings chaos to all that he touches. Fortunately for us, we’re used to it.

Not so the rest of the world. Get used to it, folks. We still have three years to go, and Trump is determined to show you that he is your boss, too.

It turns out that Putin is providing the Iranians with some intelligence behind the scenes, which isn’t doing them a whole lot of good. Ukraine, on the other hand, is helping us deal with Iranian drone attacks. Will Trump respond with gratitude?

No. Trump doesn’t do gratitude. He identifies with Putin as a fellow strongman aggressor with nukes, and he thinks Putin holds the cards. Nothing that happens in Iran will change that.

You know the rest. The prospect of having a new Supreme Leader named Khamenei would have resulted in widespread protests during peacetime. Now, I have serious doubts.

Strange how the theocrats didn’t follow Trump’s directions. The election must have been rigged. Trump should order Hegseth and Bondi to seize the voting machines immediately.

Can you imagine Trump and Hegseth using AI to create a mass surveillance state for their own political purposes? Of course you can. That’s why the power of the government to use AI needs to be strictly controlled.

On the other hand, can you imagine Elon Musk—in full Bond villain mode—using Grok to bring down a Democratic government? Of course you can. That’s why we can never have an AI system that is too powerful for the government to control.

The obvious solution to these problems is bipartisan legislation. The obvious concerns are that bipartisan legislation is an endangered species, and that Trump would probably ignore any limitations on his discretion. Don’t expect any meaningful progress on this front until 2029.

Trump truly savors acts of spectacular violence and cruelty. Can’t you imagine him as a Roman emperor feeding Christians to the lions in the Colosseum?

Sure you can. And this is the man most American Christians view as their indispensable leader. The irony is overwhelming.

You would think Putin would do something. After all, Iran has turned into a vital and reliable ally, and Trump is making him look like a wimp with his war of the week program. So why isn’t he reacting more strongly?

Because he is focused completely on Ukraine. He doesn’t have the resources or the bandwidth to open a second front, and he needs to keep Trump on board to apply pressure to the Ukrainians. For now, he will just have to grin and bear it, even if the Iran war is just the kind of egg-breaking American campaign that blithely endangers the whole world.

But look on the bright side, Vlad. Trump is destroying America’s case against your imperialist aggression. Russia is looking more respectable by the minute. And all those munitions Trump is using on Iran can’t be sent to Ukraine.

We have passed the fourth anniversary of the beginning of the Ukraine war. At this point in World War I, which it resembles in many respects, the slog in the trenches was over, and it was clear that the Germans were on their last legs. Can we expect similar developments in the current conflict?

From the Ukrainian side, no; conditions can only get worse. Putin can reasonably hold out hope that Trump will impose terms on the Ukrainians, or that Europe’s efforts on Ukraine’s side will be paralyzed by extreme right-wing parties. He can also turn the screws even tighter on his subjects if he is willing to accept the political risks. As a result, he can and will keep on fighting, regardless of the costs to his country.

In short, the most likely outcome is that the war will continue as it is now; the second possibility is a clear Russian victory.

Trump fired Kristi Noem today. She is probably wondering why; after all, she was totally loyal, and she followed instructions to the letter. The conspicuous cruelty that was such a big part of her regime came from Trump and Miller; she was just channeling their demand for dominance.

Two observations are pertinent here. First, with Trump, loyalty only runs in one direction. Second, being a faithful servant and doing his bidding got him in political trouble. Someone had to pay, and it sure wasn’t going to be him; he’s a winner, so someone else has to be the loser.

On a mostly unrelated note, Trump is asserting a right to pick the next Supreme Leader. Good luck with that, Jack. That makes about as much sense as the CCP picking the next Dalai Lama.

After reading innumerable articles about the purpose of the war, including Bret Stephens’ comments in an NYT column, I have concluded that the plan is as follows:

1. Bomb the crap out of Iran for about a month.

2. Figure out what to do next.

Carl von Clausewitz famously said that war was the extension of politics by other means. Going to war without any idea of what you are trying to accomplish is the opposite of that maxim.

The Texas primary pitted a PBP incumbent who has accepted his subservience to Trump and MAGA against a true MAGA believer with a boatload of personal baggage. The electorate is split evenly. The Democrats are hoping for a Paxton victory. Trump says he will endorse one of the two candidates and will demand that the other leave the race. What does it mean?

We’re about to find out how much MAGA is a coherent ideological movement, as opposed to a pure extension of Trump’s interests and will. If Paxton wins, we will also find out how popular that agenda is in Texas in November.

The Israelis want regime change—period. They think, probably correctly, that a secular and democratic Iran would be more interested in economic growth than ballistic missiles and nukes. Trump, on the other hand, has already lost interest in the democratic opposition; he probably realizes that true regime change requires an invasion and an occupation, so he wants to turn Iran over to a local equivalent of Delcy Rodriguez. That way, he can make a deal on missiles and nukes and then walk away.

Unfortunately, Trump concedes that he has already killed all of the potential Delcys, and things could actually get worse. Whoops! Now, what’s the plan, Stan?

Leaving Iran in ruins and in the hands of a more thuggish theocracy, and then cutting the grass at the behest of the Israelis, most likely.