Cromwell

Michigan is a blue state. As of today, it has a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators. Its automobile industry has been hit hard by Trump’s capriciousness. It has extensive economic ties with Canada that have been jeopardized by the current administration. Inflation is up; real wages are down; and the war is a disaster. Throw in a young, charismatic, media-savvy candidate for the Senate, and you have a walkover–right?

Not exactly, given that candidate’s hard left-wing views on a wide range of issues. Michelle Goldberg is right; this is a litmus test for the left. If El-Sayed does not win this election, given all of the advantages he starts with, it will send a message that the Democrats have to nominate a centrist in 2028 unless the state of the country is so dire that they cannot possibly lose.

I have previously noted that Roy Cooper and Sherrod Brown are saying nothing about Trump in their commercials. Are there Senate races in which Trump is the featured actor?

Yes. In Maine, a blue state, the key issue is the degree to which Susan Collins is genuinely independent of Trump. She has some facts on her side, but she will have to defend plenty of her other votes. Does Maine want someone who believes Trump is right on most of the issues, but not some of the big ones, or someone who opposes him at every turn? We will find out in November.

In the Michigan Senate race, the GOP candidate, Mike Rogers, will portray the newly minted Democratic standard bearer as a wokester, an antisemite, and a socialist. There will be a grain of truth in these allegations. El-Sayed will respond by tying Rogers to Trump at every turn. Will animosity towards Trump be enough to overcome culture war liabilities? Since Michigan is a swing state in presidential elections, this race will tell us a great deal about whether a conspicuously left leaning Democrat has a real chance to win in 2028.

I’ve got those dirty, lowdown, Trump midterm blues.

You have to be aware of it; it’s all over the news.

Progressives keep on beating me; the party’s got to choose.

It’s time for us to unify, or else we’re going to lose.

___________________

We have to get together to take on the New Right.

Good candidates are needed to carry on the fight.

Americans hate socialists; they haven’t seen the light.

If Trump keeps hold of Congress, we can say goodnight.

_______________

I’ve got the blues.

The out of power blues.

I know the left dislikes me

But I’ve paid my dues.

Republicans are vulnerable;

We could have a blue wave.

We have to make it happen

Or the nation can’t be saved.

Iran is apparently hacking into the municipal water systems of towns in Minnesota and Michigan. Why?

The Iranian leadership apparently doesn’t know the difference between red and blue states. If they really wanted Trump to feel some pain, their targets would be in Texas.

Unlike Trump, MBS has learned from his mistakes. He didn’t encourage Trump to start the war, because he now prefers a stable to a volatile Middle East. Trump followed Bibi’s advice rather than his, however, and the current chaos ensued.

Over the past few months, Trump has bounced like a ping-pong ball between MBS and Bibi. He made a deal to sell nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia but then added an unacceptable condition the next day at the behest of the Israelis. He repeatedly threatens to escalate to appease Bibi but then backs down and promises to negotiate in order to satisfy American public opinion and the Saudis.

Has MBS figured out that, for all of Trump’s admiration of his political style and his aesthetic, the current administration simply cannot be trusted? Probably.

The root cause of the smoke from Canadian wildfires that plagued us last week is climate change. Donald Trump doesn’t accept that, of course; he maintains that climate change is a Chinese hoax. He says he plans to punish the Canadians for imposing their smoke on us in some as yet undetermined way. It is fair to assume it will include tariffs.

Personally, I think Trump’s ambitions are way too limited here. What about the cold fronts from Canada that make our lives miserable in the winter? Don’t they deserve a tariff, too?

According to the NYT, Trump is angry at the oil companies because they haven’t given him enough credit for their record profits. At the same time, he is annoyed that they haven’t reduced prices for consumers.

Makes sense to me. I can’t imagine why the oil companies won’t express their gratitude to Trump for enriching them by starting his stupid war. That would certainly go over well with the public.

Both Governor DeWine and Senator Husted say they have been promised there won’t be a massive immigration raid in Springfield. That answers one of the questions I raised in a previous post.

For now, at least. Minneapolis showed Trump that shows of force to demonstrate dominance don’t appeal to swing voters. They do, however, make the base happy, so don’t be surprised if the Springfield Haitians are targeted shortly after the election.

Rubio and Ratcliffe told Trump that Bibi’s plan to force regime change through bombing alone was ridiculous. J.D. never supported the war. Even Hegseth just followed orders. No, the responsibility for the unsuccessful war rests solely on the president’s shoulders, which makes him a loser. Since he can’t tolerate being viewed as a loser, someone will have to pay for his mistakes. Who will it be?

To fire any of his principal advisers would be an admission of failure, so I don’t see that happening. Trump will be concerned that his domestic political opponents–even the lukewarm members of his own party–will get the message from the Iranians that it is possible to stand up to him. He can’t permit that, so you can expect him to become even more capricious and autocratic at home.

J.D. likes to tie “Heritage American” status to the Civil War, which raises a question: how does he feel about the Confederacy?

From the reviews of his latest book, the answer is pretty clear. He will concede that slavery was wrong and that the Confederacy was fighting for a bad cause. Individual Confederate soldiers, on the other hand, were as brave and noble as those fighting for the Union. After the war, they came together to inhabit and develop the West and to build the country we know and love today. They consequently bear no blame for slavery or the war. Whatever sins they might have committed have long since been redeemed.

Really? They actually built a new South that was as close to the old one as possible. It was a backward, Third World land with a plantation economy premised on cheap labor, low taxes on landowners, the denial of political rights to black people, agriculture, and the extraction of natural resources. As I’ve noted before, that economy still exists in some areas of the former Confederacy today.

The Civil War, regardless of what J.D. thinks, was about treason and slavery, and he is siding with the traitors for reasons of political expediency. Were they really better Americans than today’s immigrants? Not by any reasonable standard.

For decades, the Republican brand has been built on distrust of government. If the electorate thinks the government is corrupt and inept, the thinking goes, they will vote to limit its powers and return money and freedom to the people. In practice, of course, the primary beneficiaries of this were wealthy businessmen, who welcome the tax cuts and the deregulation.

The problem now is that populists from both the left and the right are opposed to Trump’s dream of data centers from sea to sea. How can the GOP leadership turn off the public’s cynicism just in this particular field? So far, by making backroom deals to avoid public scrutiny until the last possible moment and by running bait-and-switch campaign commercials about AI regulation, it seems.

In the long run, that will only make the problem worse. It also presents an opportunity for the Democrats, if they can figure out how to use it.

He was a charismatic, larger than life figure with a childlike enthusiasm for war. He was an open and passionate imperialist who believed the world was the beneficiary if his country expanded its political and cultural influence. The media adored him, as did some of the public; the rest saw him as volatile and dangerous.

Is it TR or Churchill? It’s both, of course.

Trump has been treating Zelensky with more respect over the last few months. Why is that?

Because Ukraine has mostly weaned itself off of American aid and is doing better in the war. It is also proving to be helpful in the Iran war. In Trumpian terms, Zelensky has more cards to play today than he did a year ago.

C: I’ve gathered you together to discuss the war and AI. First, the war. You had wildly different views of it the last time we met. Have your opinions changed?

M: Not mine. I thought it was a serious mistake back then. Events have proven me right.

S: I’m not crazy about where we are right now, but I still trust Trump to win the war. He’ll pull a rabbit out of a hat. He always does.

C: How do you feel about higher gas prices?

S: I hate them, of course. Everything is more expensive now. We need to find an end to the war. But Trump will figure out a way.

C: How does the war end? Trump doesn’t have enough leverage to force the Iranians to submit to him. Does he use ground troops?

S: No. We don’t need another Iraq. Trump won’t let that happen.

C: Then how does it end?

S: I don’t know. He’ll think of something. He always does. He’s the boss.

C: Let’s turn our attention to AI. How do you feel about it?

M: Great! We’re incorporating it into parts of the business already. I should be able to lay off some of my administrative employees within a few months. That will increase profits even if I’m having trouble selling cars at a reasonable price, thanks to Trump’s stupid tariffs.

S: I will admit, I’m worried.

C: Why? What are your concerns?

S: I don’t want any of those data centers in my neighborhood. My electric bills are way too high already. I’m worried about impacts to our water supply. And I’m concerned about the impacts to American workers. How many of us are going to be out of work? What will we do?

M: They’ll find new jobs. They always do. That’s how the economy always works. Progress is good for everyone, even if there are some short-term adjustments to be made.

C: Donald Trump is very pro-AI. He’s doing his best to eliminate state and local regulation of AI. Don’t you trust him on that?

S: I trust Trump, but I think he’s getting some bad advice. Those rich tech guys have too much influence on his administration.

C: You don’t trust big tech? Trump does.

S: Big tech barons don’t care about real Americans like me. They just want to line their pockets and tell me what to do. They need to be brought under control.

C: And who is going to do that? Not Trump, based on his record to date.

S: I told you–he’s getting bad advice. Once he knows the truth, he’ll protect people like me. He just needs better information. He needs to get out more.

C: I think we’ll end it there.

As we know only too well, Donald Trump is all about the creation and application of leverage. He thinks he has found a way to bend Cornyn and Tillis to his will; all he has to do is threaten to pull the Blanche nomination until they leave office. Is this likely to work?

No, because they may well be replaced by two Democrats who will never vote to confirm Blanche. A certain no vote is a lot worse than a maybe with reasonable conditions.