DeSantis clearly wants to force the woke left to shut up. But what if he succeeded? Where would the right-wing outrage machine go for material? How can you own the libs if the libs can’t say or do anything the right can ridicule?
Trump understands this perfectly. It is the basis for the Fox News business model. DeSantis hasn’t grasped it yet.
In 2016, Chris Christie made unpopular cuts to Social Security and Medicare the centerpiece of his campaign, which went nowhere. It appears that he plans to run again in 2024. Will he take the same position on entitlements?
I think he will, even though GOP orthodoxy on Social Security and Medicare has changed, because he has less to lose. Entitlements are popular with the reactionary base, but he has no chance of winning those people over, anyway. Entitlement cuts are popular with business; that is where his opportunity exists.
You can say that again.
Do you remember Trump’s secret plan to destroy IS? He never told us what it was, but in practice, it was to continue with the approach created under Obama. It worked, too.
Today, Trump is saying he has a secret plan to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. He won’t say what it is, of course, but if such a plan actually exists, it has to be changing sides and offering Ukraine to Putin on a silver platter.
Next up: the Trump secret (and nonexistent) plan to fight inflation.
A few years ago, I mused about the possibility that the red states might secede and form their own country–the RSA (Reactionary States of America). I decided the capital of the RSA should be Oklahoma City, for three reasons: it is in the heart of the RSA; it is firmly associated with fossil fuels; and it is the site of the McVeigh bombing. I hypothesized that McVeigh would ultimately be viewed as a sort of right-wing John Brown, and celebrated as a warrior against the deep blue state in the RSA.
It is becoming clear that I was right. A number of new books are finding a thread that runs from Waco through McVeigh to Trump and January 6. The reassessment of McVeigh by the right is already underway.
In a sense, given the level of hostility expressed by the hard right against the government, it is surprising that there have been no further attacks on federal facilities by rabid right-wing groups. Is it because it is so much easier to just buy a gun and shoot people in private places? Is it because the federal government has effectively deterred this kind of activity with rigorous security measures and prosecutions? Or is it just that the right is more mouth than action?
I suspect the answer is all three.
DeSantis is a vet, so Memorial Day should be an opportunity for him to shine. He can contrast his willingness to serve with the actions of Cadet Bone Spurs, and even bring up Trump’s contempt for wounded vets. Will he do it?
Probably not, because it would piss off at least some of the base. Thus far, he has avoided that at all costs.
A few years ago, our old friend Sohrab Ahmari caused quite a stir in right-wing circles with an article entitled “Against David French-ism.” Ahmari condemned French for fighting a rear-guard action against change; in his view, the right should be doing everything in its power to impose its traditional values on the entire country, even if it didn’t represent a majority on the issue. He didn’t explain exactly how that was going to happen in a liberal democracy, but the message was clear: by whatever means necessary, including the destruction of constitutional government as we have known it since the 18th century. Ahmari is thus an illiberal democrat at best and an outright fascist at worst.
French is a lawyer. He believes in liberal democracy and the rule of law. Unlike most of today’s GOP, he seeks to persuade, not to oppress. He understands that change is inevitable, but he wants to slow it down in order to make it manageable. He isn’t trying to bring back some kind of reactionary fantasy world through the exercise of will and federal government power.
He is exactly the kind of right-winger America needs today. He is a genuine American conservative, not a reactionary.
Such is the hold that Trump has over the base, all of the other candidates have defined themselves in relation to him. It goes like this:
`1. DeSantis: Trump, but more methodical, results-oriented, and electable.
2. Haley: A bridge between Trump and the Never Trumpers.
3. Ramaswamy: Even Trumpier than Trump.
4. Scott: A far less combative version of Trump.
5. Pence: Trump on 1/5/21, and stronger on abortion.
If Christie runs, it will be as not Trump. Trump, of course, is the American Caligula. He is inimitable, as DeSantis is learning to his cost.
Here are the winners and losers:
WINNER: JOE BIDEN. He avoids a disaster, validates his theory of the case on bipartisan compromises, and saves his legislative legacy.
LOSERS: PROGRESSIVES. They didn’t want to give up anything. Once you accept the need to negotiate, that wasn’t going to happen.
???: KEVIN MCCARTHY. History will look kindly on his willingness to make a deal that is reasonable and reflects the balance of power in Congress. My SEP and 401(k) are also grateful. But now, the crazoids will never trust him again. He will be dependent on Democrats to keep his job. It is an outcome that I did not predict.
LOSERS: DONALD TRUMP AND RON DESANTIS. It sounds good to say that, doesn’t it? Trump wanted either capitulation or chaos; he got neither. He will be screaming about the deal in all caps from this day forward.
LOSERS: HOUSE CRAZOIDS. We’re not burning it down, folks.
What will McCarthy do now? Will he effectively become the leader of a coalition government, or will he do everything he can to mollify the crazoids, including lots of useless investigations and impeachments? I’m guessing the latter, but it doesn’t matter. This was the big one, and in a few days it should be over, because the House GOP is in no position to reject the deal; they would clearly be blamed by the public for its failure, and it would cost them in 2024.
DENIAL: Biden refuses to negotiate and demands a clean debt ceiling deal, saying there is no legal or conceptual basis for a default. This is both completely true and totally irrelevant. The GOP is determined to hold the economy hostage for . . . something.
ANGER: The House GOP finally comes up with a ransom note, which virtually everyone acknowledges will not resemble the outline of an agreement. Biden still refuses to negotiate. Everyone is angry with everyone else.
BARGAINING: Having failed to pick off stray GOP votes, Biden begins to negotiate.
DEPRESSION: We’re getting close to the deadline, and things aren’t looking good. Say goodbye to your 401(k), boys and girls.
ACCEPTANCE: A deal is reached. Things get really interesting from here.
Mitch McConnell’s view of the working Constitution is a halfway house to illiberal democracy, but his tactical sense is very keen, and must be respected. He has said all along that the debt ceiling will be raised by a bipartisan vote. It appears as of today that he will be right. What conclusions should we draw from that?
If his prediction comes true, it will mean that McCarthy is more willing to use Democratic votes to keep his job than I expected. Trump and the Freedom Caucus will make him pay dearly for it if he does.
In yet another misguided effort to win over the base, DeSantis is now attacking Trump from the right for being soft on crime, abortion, and public health mandates. For all of the reasons I have set out on several occasions, this approach isn’t going to work; Trump’s support from the base is unconditional, and focused more on style, identity issues, and entertainment value than legislative and administrative substance. But could these kinds of attacks drive Trump further to the right? And if so, would they present a problem for him in the general election?
The answer to both questions is yes. Trump prizes his connection to the base above everything except his ego, and he is prone to changing positions on the fly. It is easy to imagine him saying somethin spontaneous at a debate to make the reactionary crowd happy that would cost him dearly in the general election.
That is why, if Trump is smart, he will avoid the debates to the maximum extent possible.
When you think about it, reactionary politics and tech aren’t exactly a great match.
Life in the time of Trump.
DeSantis is a threat.
He’s so far right
He’s out of sight.
But can he win? You bet!
Ezra Klein essentially lays out Biden’s position on the debt ceiling negotiations in today’s NYT. It’s too risky to use the Fourteenth Amendment. You would be banking on Roberts, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh, and who knows what they would do? Better to negotiate and hope for the best.
The problem with this approach is that, for the reasons I have described in several previous posts, no reasonable compromise can be reached without putting McCarthy’s gavel in jeopardy. Either the negotiations will fail, because a large faction of House Republicans won’t support the deal, or McCarthy will have to rely on Democratic votes to keep his job, which will be very uncomfortable for him.
Klein doesn’t trust the Supreme Court. I get that. But will you get a fairer hearing from the Freedom Caucus? Do you trust McCarthy and Matt Gaetz more than John Roberts?
I certainly don’t. In the real world, Biden will have to hope and pray that the pressure to settle will peel off a handful of GOP votes just before we hit the wall. If that doesn’t work, it is surrender, chaos, or the Fourteenth Amendment.
Note to my readers: I will be on vacation until Friday. Regular posts will resume either late Friday or Saturday.