Month: June 2020

As I’ve noted before, Trump’s greatest accomplishment has been to convince virtually everyone in the GOP that he is all that stands between them and the hellscape of socialism and political correctness. Republican campaign ads bear this out. Every single ad for a GOP candidate that I have seen promises unconditional support for Trump. Most contain footage of riots, looting, and a crazed-looking AOC. Some involve guns and Christianity. Trump would approve.

But what about the electorate? What if the voters have looked around and decided Trump’s blazing mouth isn’t actually keeping them safe from the virus, the Chinese, and a recession? What if they see him for what he is—a man on golf cart?

We’ll see.

As I noted previously, Reactionaries are not genuine libertarians. They have no problem engaging in collective action against the other; hence, lynchings. But they have failed miserably to control the virus. Why?

Two reasons. First, Reactionaries believe in the power of will and prayer, not science and expertise. Second, they are so emotionally and intellectually invested in the concept of fighting for liberty against a morally corrupt government that they couldn’t change course under circumstances that required collective action. That inflexibility was a big part of Trump’s failures, but he wasn’t alone. Just ask the governors of Florida, Texas, and Arizona.

Presumably emboldened by the size of Biden’s lead, the left is pushing harder on its wish list. And so, Sunday’s NYT included a long column making the case for reparations, and we have an argument for removing statues of all slaveholders—including Washington—in today’s paper.

My response to the reparations column will be lengthy, and will have to wait until I have the use of a proper keyboard. The Washington argument, however, is a piece of moral and political obtuseness that makes the case for the right just as much as Trump makes it for the left. This is middle America’s nightmare. It is a Trump commercial waiting to happen. It has to stop until Trump has actually been defeated, or he won’t be.

Trump ran in 2016 as a kind of real life Batman. So why does he have such a problem wearing a mask? Batman does!

Two possible answers: the mask doesn’t work without a cape; or he identifies more with the Joker. If he doesn’t, he should.

Historically, America was an evangelist for liberal democracy, free trade, and the international rule of law. In spite of many mistakes, in the big picture, it has worked. The world is a far more peaceful and prosperous place than it used to be.

To our critics on the right (Putin) and left (the authors of the 1619 Project), this is all self-serving eyewash. America is only about racism and power and self-interest. We delude ourselves when we think otherwise.

Trump basically agrees with the critics. Worse, he actually goes further and openly embraces the critique. He makes the case against us every day.

And that, among many other reasons, is why he has to go.

Barring some truly awful and unforeseeable event, there will be no red wave in November. That leads us with the following three scenarios:

1. TRUMP WINS ANOTHER SQUEAKER: The federal government remains divided, as the GOP is in no position to retake the House. Trump predictably views the outcome as vindication for his lawless ways, and GOP members of Congress fall into line. The party is consequently even more identified with Trump’s whims and corruption than before, and constitutional crises ensue. Things don’t look good for 2024, but it isn’t clear that there will even be another election, as Trump’s authoritarian streak, abetted by Barr, becomes more conspicuous.
2. BIDEN WINS NARROWLY; THE SENATE STAYS RED: There is very little meaningful legislation, but Biden and McConnell at least work together to keep the lights on. Trump’s failure is generally viewed in the GOP as the product of bad luck with the pandemic. There are no fundamental changes within the party; the PBP/Reactionary bargain remains in effect.
3. BLUE WAVE!: Now things get more exciting! The Reactionaries and the PBPs start tearing each other to pieces. PBPs blame Trump’s capriciousness and lack of interest in working with anyone outside his base for his failures; Reactionaries, on the other hand, blame the PBPs for not doing enough to support their man. The 2024 primaries turn into a contest pitting a pure Reactionary (Hawley, perhaps?) against a Reagan Coalition candidate (Cotton?). Who wins? Stay tuned.

The virus was a marvelous opportunity for Trump to redefine himself as a “wartime president” and win the country over with his competence and leadership ability. To put it mildly, he has failed miserably. Why?

It all comes down to his personal shortcomings. Part of it is his childish lack of patience. Part of it is his unwillingness to actually do the hard work of governing. Part of it is his incredibly selfish desire to take credit for successes and to shift blame for failures. But I think a big part of it is his lack of imagination. He had decided that he was going to run as the man who brought the Trump economic boom to America. When the switch flipped, he simply didn’t have the mental flexibility to change his message. He insisted on keeping on in a dramatically different world, and he’s going to pay the price for it.

The analogy isn’t perfect, since judges and legislators perform different functions, but it occurred to me today that McConnell and the Chief Justice actually have a lot in common. Both of them are strong right-wing partisans, of course, but you can make deals with them. Both of them play the long game; they will retreat when they think it is necessary to preserve something more important, even if it means they take criticism from their own side. Both are greatly concerned about the workings and public image of the body that they lead. Finally, it is likely that both of them want to use the judiciary to put an enduring impediment in front of any future progressive legislation.

Will they prevail? Don’t bet against them in the short run. In the longer run, if they don’t give considerably more ground, trouble is brewing. Millennials aren’t going to tolerate a system that frustrates their agenda forever.

(Trump tried to persuade his strongman buddies to attend the convention at his hotel as usual, but they thought it was too risky, so they’re meeting virtually, instead. Trump is alone in the Oval Office. Putin is first on the screen.)

T: Vlad the Impaler! How are you doing, bro?

P: I’m always happy to see you, Donald, and I’m working hard for your re-election, but I just don’t know if I can pull it off this time. It’s going to be tough.

T: Don’t worry. I’ll pull a rabbit out of the hat. I always do.

P: I hate to sound like a broken record, but the virus and the riots have given you the perfect opportunity to become a proper strongman, and you haven’t taken advantage of them. You should be shooting protesters, shutting down the media, and cancelling the election. That’s what I would do.

T: It’s not that easy here. This isn’t Russia, you know.

P: Man up, Donald! Stop being a wimp and blaming everyone but yourself! You can make your miserable country as great as Russia if you just have the will!

(Duterte has appeared on the screen)

T: Rodrigo, you old son of a bitch! Good to see you!

D: And you, you son of a whore!

P: Now, there’s a man who knows how to be a strongman! He doesn’t shrink from putting opponents in jail and shooting criminals! You could learn a lot from him.

D: I do what’s necessary, and my people love me.

T: But why are you so cozy with the Chinese?

D: I’m only here to tell you that this is my last convention with you. I have to get off to do a deal with Xi.

T: Why? Why not me?

D: Because no one trusts you, Donald. Xi may be a threat, but at least he keeps his word.

(Putin and Duterte exit; Xi comes on)

T: My favorite Chinaman! How’s it going!

X: I’m just here to say goodbye. We’re tired of being bashed by you. This “kung flu” thing is the last straw.

T: But it’s not personal! I never criticize you. It’s just your people and culture I can’t stand. Anyway, it’s just business–I’m sure you understand.

X: You hurt the feelings of the Chinese people when you talk about the “kung flu.” It’s personal with over a billion people. I can’t ignore what they think. This is the end for me.

(Xi departs; Kim comes on)

T: Rocketman! We heard you were dead!

K: They said that about Paul McCartney, too, and he’s still here.

T: I’ve been trying to send you a copy of “Rocketman.” You’ll love it! How should I address it?

K: Donald, I’ve tried to be patient with you, but you haven’t delivered anything to me. I’m tired of giving you credibility and photo-ops by pretending to be your friend. I’m putting an end to the charade. This is it.

(Kim leaves. Erdogan is now on)

T: Turkish delight! Congratulations on your victory in Libya!

E: Not that you helped. There was a time when America could solve problems like Libya. Now it’s up to me.

T: But you’re winning, and that’s good! The next time you come to America, we can celebrate at my hotel. I’ll give you a special deal on happy hour!

(Erdogan cuts out abruptly, leaving Trump all alone)

He struggled mightily to make a decision, but in the end, Robert E. Lee couldn’t turn his back on the country he had served for decades. He sold his Virginia property, moved his family north, and accepted Lincoln’s offer to serve as the commander of the Union armies.

With its vast advantage in resources and Lee’s highly competent leadership, the Union quickly prevailed in the Civil War. Richmond fell early in 1861, and the Confederate government collapsed. Lincoln offered generous terms to the seceding states; emancipation was not even discussed in this process. The status quo had been essentially restored by the end of 1861. But had the slavery issue really disappeared?

Not at all. The real reckoning was still ahead. Lee’s decision had only postponed it.

Life in the time of Trump.

The virus stalks the land.

But Trump denies it’s happening.

His head’s still in the sand.

The problem is too many tests.

He claims that he’s not kidding.

The right demands to open up

The GDP is skidding.

Trump senses an opening. He’s going after protesters who are attacking Confederate statues, claiming that the protesters have no respect for American history, and are seeking to impose their PC values on the rest of us. Is he right, and does this make political sense?

Trump is an unlikely supporter of the Confederacy. He obviously didn’t grow up there, and has no natural appreciation of its culture or values. He hates losers; they lost. He rejects the whole notion of the exceptionalism of American institutions and values; to him, only power matters. Finally, the swing states are predominantly in what was the Union (Florida, with its unusual demographics, doesn’t count). How is running as the leader of the party of Jefferson Davis going to get him votes in Pennsylvania or Michigan?

He’s on more solid ground when he talks about Andrew Jackson, Columbus, or Theodore Roosevelt. These men may not have been saints, but they weren’t traitors, and their impact on America is undeniable. Who is to say that today’s PC crusaders won’t be viewed as bigots 200 years from now? Jackson, et. al., should stay in place.

Over the last 3+ years, there have been two inconsistent threads to Trump’s thinking about China. They are:

1. The real problem with China is the trade deficit. If you can make a deal for managed trade that reduces the deficit, Wall Street will cheer, and you can have a victory lap in front of the electorate. The ultimate objective is re-election; the deal will help with that. Bigger, structural issues can wait until the second term.
2. China is an existential military and economic threat, to be fought with every tool consistent with “America First.” The virus is a form of biological warfare launched deliberately by the evil Communists against unsuspecting Americans. This is a brutal, deadly war that cannot be put off. It is a clash of civilizations that we absolutely must win.

These threads are mutually exclusive. Fear of China is clearly one of the cornerstones of the campaign. Which option will he ultimately choose?

To date, both! Consistency is the hobgoblin of minds much smaller than his. He can bash China mercilessly (kung flu! kung flu!) AND boast about the trade deals he made with their wise and powerful leaders which, in reality, only mitigated a part of the damage he did himself with his stupid tariffs. Take that, Biden!

It will be Biden’s task to make the obvious point that this makes no sense whatsoever, and that Trump has done nothing except alienate the allies we need for this battle, such as it is.

What a front porch was to William McKinley, a basement is to Biden. And, as with McKinley, it’s working! The less Biden says and does, the more his lead increases. Can this last?

For the most part, yes. Biden needs to do enough to refute Trump’s argument that he is weak and senile. Otherwise, every day that the incumbent is the issue is a day won, and Trump’s insatiable desire for attention makes that easy. Just make some powerful ads, rely on surrogates, and let the magic of the man on golf cart’s craziness do the work for you.

There isn’t much to admire about culture warriors. In the red corner, the historically predominant side, now a minority, is baying about “religious freedom” because imposing its values on the population is becoming increasingly difficult. Some of its prominent adherents have made it clear that they will support the Orban option and throw liberal democracy in the trash if their values aren’t written in law. The blue corner is full of people who are so filled with their own sense of righteousness, they can’t admit that the red side is supported by scripture and thousands of years of precedent. To them, everyone in the red corner is a fool and a bigot. Neither side will talk to the other. No wonder our country is so divided.

That’s why the compromise floating in an op-ed in today’s NYT is so heartening. It proposes a deal in which the blues get their position on gay rights established as the law, and the reds get clearly defined carve-outs. A win-win! I approve, and hope Biden read it; something like it may be our last hope for a settlement that staves off a massive and unwelcome constitutional change in the future.