Month: February 2023

I never made any bones about it; while average citizens were entitled to some say in government, real power should be exercised by the elite–or, if you like, the “establishment.” By the elite, I didn’t mean some small ossified group of large landowners; I was referring to the most dynamic part of the population–the capitalists. There always has to be room in the establishment for new, enterprising, well-educated people. People like me.

By and large, my vision for America has become reality. America is the strongest and most prosperous nation on the planet. But battles between the establishment and populists have been a theme of American history from the beginning. Jefferson and I fought about it in the late 18th century. Sometimes, as with Andrew Jackson and William Jennings Bryan, the populist cause didn’t deserve any support. Sometimes, as with FDR and the Civil Rights Movement, it did. Make no mistake: I would have supported MLK every step of the way. He was fighting against the erection and maintenance of artificial legal barriers against black citizens. I was always opposed to those kinds of barriers.

Today’s populists are the product of racism, economic failures partially attributable to our political leaders, media without responsible gatekeepers, and a misbegotten war in the Middle East. They claim to have some sort of entitlement to run the country by virtue of being white Christians even though they don’t have any economic or educational credentials that justify their leadership. That’s not what I had in mind when I supported the creation of a dynamic, flexible establishment. If the populists and the demagogues that exploit them–Trump reminds me of Burr, but has even fewer redeeming qualities–ever get firm control of our country, God help America.

Unlike the nexus between the pandemic and a temporary payment moratorium, the logical connection between the pandemic and permanent debt relief is fairly shaky, which means you could rule against the students on the merits without invoking the vague, arbitrary, and generally odious “major questions doctrine.” The standing question is quite another matter, however. No Supreme Court with any sense of legal propriety would say that there was an injury in fact to any of the plaintiffs in this case.

Do I have any confidence that the Court will rule this way? None whatsoever! The Court is itching to blow up every Biden administrative initiative that makes any difference in the lives of average citizens. That means, inevitably, that Supreme Court reform will be on the menu during the 2024 election, because the left is in office, but not in power.

I was always about checking the power of overmighty governmental authorities. When state governments were out of control, I supported federalism and the Constitution. When Hamilton started using the powers of the new federal government in a way I hadn’t contemplated, I became an advocate for states’ rights. Some people accused me of changing sides, but it wasn’t true; I was just responding to a new and different factual situation. That’s what reasonable people do when conditions change.

I always thought that making fundamental changes through government should be hard; most change should be evolutionary and driven by the private sector. It should require a lot of effort and compromise to build coalitions large enough to get majorities in Congress. That’s what Federalist #10 was trying to say. There is a big difference, however, between difficult and impossible.

The combination of the filibuster–an innovation that was unknown in 1787–along with a partisan Supreme Court has made significant legislation virtually impossible. Since power abhors a vacuum, the executive branch and the judiciary have encroached on the powers of Congress in order to get anything done. That isn’t constitutional government; it’s government by slapdash work-around. It needs to be changed as soon as possible if the objective is to restore limited, but effective government in Washington.

Sunak’s deal with the EU looks reasonable and fair–obvious, even–and in the best interests of both sides. Will he be rewarded for that with a revolt by the hardline Brexiteers? It wouldn’t shock me.

When the French government increased taxes on gasoline in order to reduce emissions, the countryside erupted. The American left learned from the example of the gilets jaunes; they gave up the idea of taxing carbon in favor of subsidies and regulations in order to mute the objections from the populist right

On the other hand, most of the American right has learned from the demonstrations regarding Macron’s pension reform bill that cutting Social Security is a non-starter, at least for now. As I’ve noted before, there is a constituency for entitlement cuts in the GOP that will never go away, but as long as the reactionaries are calling the shots, they won’t happen.

My vision of an America dominated politically by free yeoman farmers prevailed for about fifty years; that’s why the Federalists died out. But the combination of successful wars and dramatic technological change led to an America dominated by immigrants, large corporations, and industry. My dream was dead by 1900. America became Hamiltonian, and still is.

There are some people out there who think I would be on the side of the giant corporations and the red states against the federal government today. They point to my comments about immigrants and cities and my concern about the encroachment of federal powers on the states. Those are the same people who also falsely insist that I was a committed orthodox Christian. In reality, my attitudes about cities, immigrants, and the like were a product of the conditions that prevailed at the time; my overriding interest was in progress, tactical flexibility, the possibilities of science, and the need to protect the middle class from the predations of rich financiers.

Given a choice between a powerful federal government and unchecked giant corporations, I would pick the former every time, because it at least is accountable to the general public. That’s why I’m a Democrat today, not a Sarah Palin Republican.

Paul Krugman is puzzled. Why haven’t the Fed’s interest rate increases significantly cooled aggregate demand? The answer is simple, and I’ve stated it many times before; demand is being fueled by pandemic savings and high stock and real estate prices, not by borrowed money. As a result, interest rate increases are largely irrelevant in the fight against inflation; they don’t account for the significant progress to date, and they won’t solve the problem in the future.

All the Fed can do is drive the construction industry to its knees, lower home prices, and damage the confidence of stock market investors, which would ultimately lead to reduced spending by affluent consumers. The problem is that the investors see the improved inflation data and think lower interest rates are on the way. As a result, the Fed has to sound hawkish even when the data don’t justify it. It’s a fairly ridiculous state of affairs.

If you really want to lower inflation to 2 percent, the best way to do it would be a tax increase on the affluent that would suck up the excess pandemic savings. That, of course, is completely off the table. What we are left with is an inflation-fighting mechanism that doesn’t really work. Does that make sense to you? Of course not.

The heroes of the Roman Republic were my role models from my childhood. I always tried to behave with dignity, grace, and self-restraint. Patriotism always prevailed over the will to power. I may not have met my standard in every case, but I can honestly say that I always tried.

I don’t see that in America today. The citizenry is reasonably independent and well educated; I will give them that. America is the most powerful and prosperous nation on the planet. But what are the citizens doing with their advantages? Demagogues, largely operating on cable TV and social media, drive the train. No one respects science, traditions, and the law. We have people dressed as furry Vikings storming the Capitol. Mob rule fed by unscrupulous politicians and the media–it was my worst fear, even in the 18th century.

Ben Franklin once described our system as a republic, if we could keep it. Right now, I don’t know if Americans even want to keep it. Nearly half of them would vote for Caligula over Cato if you gave them the choice today.

Medvedev told the world a few days ago that Russia needed more security space; as a result, the frontier with Poland would have to be rolled back a bit.

DeSantis and Carlson insist that Putin isn’t a threat to NATO countries. Whoops! Don’t you wonder what they’re saying now?

The irony here, of course, is that Poland is as determinedly anti-woke as Putin, so the extreme right is going to have to make a difficult choice. It’s like having to reject either Trump or DeSantis.

Imagine that you are in a position to advise Darling Nikki on campaign strategy. What is her path to the nomination?

My initial reaction is that it reminds me of the old joke in which two guys are being chased by a bear. One of them pauses to lace up his running shoes. When he is told that he can’t outrun the bear, he responds by saying he doesn’t have to–he just needs to outrun his companion.

In this case, Trump is the bear; Haley can’t possibly compete with him for the “deplorables” vote. The companion is DeSantis; if he trounces him, she can win the nomination regardless of what Trump does, because the “deplorables” don’t represent the majority of the GOP.

How can she dominate the anti-Trump lane? She can’t be tougher on wokeness than DeSantis. She can’t be more of a generational choice than he is, either. What she can do is be more normal and likeable than DeSantis. She can be more moderate on abortion, and tougher on Putin. She can flash more charisma and a better resume. She can appeal to everyone in the GOP and to the independents she needs to win the general election instead of putting all of her cards on the reactionary base, which has been shown to be a losing strategy since 2016.

Let’s be honest here: this probably isn’t going to work. Her chances of winning are slim. They are not, however, zero, particularly since DeSantis has decided to go soft on Putin.

Kevin McCarthy is in his office (the one with “Speaker of the House” over the door, as he notes with approval every morning) with an aide when Marjorie Taylor Greene comes in without an invitation.

M: MTG! What’s the occasion?

G: Just wanted to make sure you were still on board with burning it down.

M: Of course! It has to be done! We have to save the real America by destroying the fake one!

G: But you know that’s just the first step, right?

M: What do you mean?

G: Burning it down is just the first step to creating the America we really want and need. One that real Americans can be proud of again.

M: How will that work?

G: First, we force Biden and Harris to resign and announce that Trump is the true president of the country. That’s the price of resolving the fiscal issue.

M: Then what?

G: We give Trump absolute discretionary powers to do whatever he needs to do to stick it to the blue states. We take control of the military, the MSM, Hollywood, and the universities. We censor the internet in our favor. Only Trump has the guts to do that.

M: What about the Constitution?

G: What about it? It’s been perverted over the centuries, anyway. We need to go back to the America of the Founding Fathers and forget all that nonsense about slavery and the War Between the States. You know that the Founding Fathers were Christian nationalists who wanted the president to be a dictator, right?

M: Absolutely! You’re right on target with that!

G: Just remember that when we’re burning it down. It’s only part of a bigger picture. (MTG leaves)

A: You know that woman’s crazy, right?

M: Yeah, but she’s my boss. I have to humor her, or I lose my job. What else can I do?

A: Well, for one, you could try using your position to protect the American people from crazoids like her.

M: They’re too far gone to be helped. It’s all about me and this office now. I won’t leave until they carry me out. (The aide leaves)

All business owners want the same things: low taxes; unrestricted access to markets; reliable infrastructure; a light regulatory touch; and, above all, a large, well-trained, and docile workforce. By and large, over the last forty years, their prayers have been answered, resulting in soaring profits and asset prices and vastly higher levels of inequality.

The pandemic changed things. Millions of older workers decided to retire, thus leaving a hole in the labor force. Businesses continue to struggle to find qualified workers; at times, they have even been compelled to train them at their own expense! This situation is clearly intolerable. What can be done?

If the retirees can’t be enticed back into the labor force with higher wages, they can be starved out with entitlement cuts. Raising the eligibility requirements for Social Security would be a particularly effective gambit. This is why there will always be a constituency for entitlement cuts in the GOP, even when the PBPs don’t represent the majority of Republican voters, many of whom are completely dependent on Social Security and Medicare for their survival.

In response to a question about Biden’s trip to Ukraine, DeSantis sniffed that Russia was no threat to NATO, and said that Biden should put more effort into controlling the border. This presumably was an effort to find some middle ground between Tucker Carlson (Putin is a great guy, because he isn’t woke) and the mainstream of the GOP on Ukraine. Effectively, it means DeSantis has no interest in protecting Ukraine from Russian aggression; he only promises to defend NATO countries, and doesn’t expect to have to do it.

DeSantis appears to be running hard after the Trump vote, but he isn’t going to get it, at least not during the primaries. By doing so, he is opening up a huge lane to his left for a candidate who will promise to be tough on Putin. Nikki Haley undoubtedly will have taken notice.

Rick Scott is bored stiff in the Senate. He wants to be the CEO of America, LLC, and cut spending to the bone. His decision not to run for president tells us that even he understands that this is not another 2011 Tea Party moment; it is a struggle for power within the Republican Party.

In a way, his decision is a disappointment, because it would be great fun to watch him spend outrageous sums of money to get 2 percent of the vote. Oh, well. We’ll live without it.

Tim Scott, on the other hand, is clearly interested in running. His biggest problem is that his potential lane is already completely filled by Nikki Haley, who has a much larger national profile and a better resume. If he does run, he’s wasting his time, money, and breath.

In this scenario, the Ukrainians drive the Russians completely out of their country. The Russian government obviously doesn’t formalize this in any kind of agreement. The question in this scenario is whether Putin survives, and whether he feels compelled to escalate with NATO. I don’t know the answers to those questions, but nothing can be completely ruled out.