Month: November 2022

If you were a pop music fan in the late 1970s, the line was clear: you were either a Fleetwood Mac or Eagles fan. Personally, I was a Fleetwood Mac guy. I still am, so this hurts.

Ironically, her music lives on in commercials for electric cars. I imagine she would be surprised by that.

If you’re looking for some cheap entertainment, get on YouTube and watch the segment from “The Dance” in which the band plays “Silver Springs.” Stevie and Lindsey are recreating the drama in their personal lives, while Christine plays on with an incredibly bemused look on her face. It’s priceless. So was Christine.

An optimist would look at the first two years of DeSantis’ term as governor and conclude that he is a cynical, ambitious opportunist who inadvertently stumbled into the reactionary political brand that he now wants to ride to the White House. Once in office, he would govern as a competent mainstream Republican. You might see some performative actions against the left every now and then for the benefit of the base, but they would be practically meaningless. He doesn’t represent anything like the threat to the country that Trump does.

A pessimist looks at the last two years of DeSantis and sees the Hungarian Candidate: a man who will single-mindedly use the power of the federal government to deprive his opponents of as many legal rights as possible. He may not be the same kind of overt threat to our institutions as the American Caligula, but that doesn’t make him any less dangerous.

Which view is correct? I’m honestly not sure. I will say one thing about it, however. There were plenty of people in 2016 who thought Trump was a brilliant, pragmatic businessman whose worst instincts would be curbed by the Axis of Adults. To cite a more extreme example, there were also plenty of Germans in 1933 who believed that Hitler was just a clownish nationalist demagogue who would be controlled and manipulated by the military and conservative industrialists. We know how that turned out.

In short, it is too dangerous to give DeSantis the benefit of the doubt. He’s the Hungarian Candidate until proven otherwise.

Elon Musk is a self-proclaimed “free speech absolutist.” Yesterday, however, he endorsed Ron DeSantis, whose brand is using the power of the state to stifle free speech from people on the left.

What should we make of this? The most logical conclusion is that Musk has decided that Sewer, like Florida, is a place where wokeness comes to die. He absolutely supports the free speech rights of Nazis, but not you and me.

Like most Republicans, DeSantis has a difficult choice to make. If he alienates the extreme right, he loses votes he might well need in a tight general election, but if he doesn’t, he loses support from moderate swing voters. The answer may be to identify one particular group and have a “Sister Souljah moment,” while leaving the others alone. Which group should he choose?

The clear answer is QAnon. Those people are just weird. They can’t possibly represent that many votes, can they?

Reactionaries and tech billionaires are fundamentally different kinds of people. Reactionaries are deeply pessimistic about the future, and want to return to an allegedly more just society from the past; tech giants, on the other hand, are optimists, and think improved technology is the solution to all of our current problems. So why are some of the billionaires gravitating to the reactionary side?

Because they have common enemies. Both sides think the “coastal elite” and the “administrative state” are hamstringing them with rules and keeping them from creating the purer society that they envision. The purer society may be different, but the obstacle is the same.

The GOP majority in the House, when it is all said and done, will be no more than nine. That means the leadership will only be able to lose a handful of votes at any given time. It makes every GOP House member the equivalent of Joe Manchin.

How will that play out? The far right will be expecting to drive the train, but the moderates have a hammer, as well. Will they use it?

Don’t hold your breath. As I have noted in previous posts, the power in the GOP lies with the extremists, because the moderates value power and party unity over everything else, including the welfare of the American people. There is no reason to believe that will change in the foreseeable future.

As you would expect, my advice to DeSantis is largely the inverse of what I suggested for Trump. However, there are a few items that are unique to him. Here is the list:

1. SIGN A NON-AGGRESSION PACT WITH THE OTHER CANDIDATES: You can avoid a repeat of 2016 by getting the other non-Trump candidates to agree to drop out and support you once it becomes obvious that their cause is hopeless. That’s how Biden won in 2020. Of course, you may be dealing with Ted Cruz, so your task will be more difficult than Biden’s.
2. I’LL TAKE THE HIGH ROAD, WHILE YOU TAKE THE LOW ROAD: Don’t criticize Trump in public. Let your surrogates call him a corrupt narcissist, a dictator, and a loser.
3. PATRONIZE TRUMP DURING THE DEBATES: Cruz had some success with that in 2016. Tell the world that Trump had some great ideas in his day, but that he’s just too old, and that the torch should be passed to a new generation of reactionaries.
4. PUT THE FAMILY FORWARD: You suffer from a severe charisma deficit. Your wife and kids can help with that.
5. MIND THE GAP: Find the policy sweet spots that bridge the gap between the primary and general election voter pools.
6. GO FOX HUNTING: If the Murdochs openly support you, you probably can’t lose. Do whatever you must to keep them on your side.
7. CHANNEL YOUR INNER MARK MCGWIRE: When Trump demands to know whether you think the 2020 election was rigged, respond by saying that you’re only here to talk about what you can do for the American people in the future; the past is dead and gone. Stick to that line no matter how hard you are pushed.

Joe Manchin is probably feeling pretty good about himself right now. Why wouldn’t he? I suspect he regrets his vote on the pandemic relief bill, but he supported just enough blue team legislation over the past year to make the session a success, while consistently reining in the excesses (as he sees it) of his party. Based on the outcome of the election, he can plausibly claim to stand exactly where the American people are, which is a good place to be. But what now?

Manchin apparently won’t support the use of reconciliation to raise the debt ceiling in the lame duck session. One assumes he thinks there are enough responsible Republicans in the House to do it in 2023. That’s wishful thinking. While the moderates in the Democratic Party always win in the end, because the progressives will take a half loaf over nothing, the extremists drive the GOP train, because the leadership consistently prioritizes party unity over the welfare of the country. It has been that way for years; it will be much worse in 2023.

In short, if we have to rely on Kevin McCarthy to save us from Republican nihilism, God help us all.

With a substantial lead in the polls, much higher name recognition, plenty of money, and a national organization already in place, Trump will go into the primaries as the favorite. He probably shouldn’t be. His weaknesses exceed his strengths, and his beloved base represents a minority of Republicans, to say nothing of the electorate as a whole.

Trump’s best chance is to take whatever action is necessary to keep the base in line, while hoping that DeSantis has competition in the establishment lane, as in 2016. To that end, here’s what I would advise him to do:

1. WIN THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM: No one, and I mean no one, in American politics can plumb the depths of indecency like Trump. If he persuades DeSantis to follow him, he will win the race and keep the base on his side.
2. RON THE RINO: Accuse DeSantis of being disloyal and equivocal about January 6. Don’t let up until he gives a firm response about the “rigged” 2020 election. Anything he says on the subject will damage him with some part of the GOP electorate.
3. DESANTIS IS WEAK: Trump has made a living portraying his opponents as wimps. DeSantis will give him plenty of ammunition. Talk about fossil fuels, guns, and the border as often as possible. DeSantis will be trying to bridge the gap on these issues; Trump can make him look bad with the base, which brooks no compromise.
4. TRY TO MAKE UP WITH THE MURDOCHS: Completely losing Fox News would be a disaster. Do whatever it takes to at least keep the Murdochs neutral.
5. THE TRUMP VACCINE: DeSantis was actually more irresponsible than Trump on covid. Go after him, not for his battle on mandates, but for his position on the “Trump” vaccine, which continues to cost some Floridians their lives to this day.

How does DeSantis beat Trump? I will give him my recommendations in a future post.

Due mostly to the fact that he is the governor of a state whose economy depends on clean water and unspoiled beaches, DeSantis is about as close to an environmentalist as you can find in the GOP. Not that he would admit it, of course. But plenty of people in Florida will give him credit for measures protecting water quality, and he managed to slip some money into the state budget for climate change adaptation without any fanfare.

The problem is that this sort of “Don’t ask, don’t tell” approach to climate change will expose him to attacks from both the left and the right. Trump, who completely dismisses climate change as a Chinese hoax, will say that real men love fossil fuels and that DeSantis is weak on the issue. Most of the base will follow him on that point. The Democrats, on the other hand, will complain that he doesn’t take climate change seriously enough.

In short, this issue is going to be an albatross for him from this point forward, and there is no obvious way out. Expect him to argue that all energy sources matter and wrap himself in the energy independence flag to minimize the damage.

Pelosi and Schumer have come to the Oval Office to talk about the future. Biden is happy to see them.

B: Remember when Barack talked about us getting shellacked in 2010? It sure didn’t happen this time. In some ways, we actually won!

P: Yes, although we shouldn’t take that too far. The Republicans actually won more House votes than we did. That’s not a good sign.

B: Still, when you consider what has happened in midterms in the past, this was a good result.

S: Agreed.

B: So what do you think we should do now?

P: The most important thing is for you to use your superpower.

B: Which is?

P: Looking moderate and counterpunching. Letting the Republicans show themselves to be the extremists they are. Just like you did with Trump in 2020.

B: Yeah, we’ll have to wade through a lot of malarkey from the House over the next two years. Fortunately, I’m used to it. It’s the same stuff we had to deal with in 2011, except this time, it’s going to involve my son. That’s going to be hard for me.

S: Unless someone can talk Manchin into supporting reconciliation, we’re looking at a huge debt crisis early next year. It’s going to be important not to give in on anything important in that process. Caving will be bad for the country; it will just demoralize our side and encourage more ransom demands.

B: Got it, but if we can make a deal that’s just symbolic, I would probably do it. What else should we be looking at over the next two years?

P: We should be making Social Security a big issue. Propose making the system more financially stable by raising the income cap on the tax. Force the Republicans to either cave or take a position on it that the public will hate.

B: That makes sense. What else?

S: Be prepared to go to war over the Supreme Court if we get a boatload of reactionary decisions next year. We need to put term limits on the table.

B: I’ll look at that if it happens. Anything else?

P: Not really. We need to get the bipartisan elections and gay marriage bills through the lame duck session. After that, other than Social Security, it’s mostly about playing defense and letting the Republicans rip themselves to shreds.

B: OK. Have a great holiday! (They leave)

January 6 is, of course, the ultimate wedge issue for the GOP, and a particular problem for DeSantis. If he criticizes Trump’s actions, he alienates the man on golf cart’s following and diminishes his chances of winning a general election; if he doesn’t, he turns off moderate opinion and essentially admits that Trump should already be president, which destroys the rationale behind his candidacy. What should he do?

He’ll equivocate. He’ll do anything possible to avoid answering the question. He’ll diminish January 6 and change the subject. That’s what he’s been doing all along. Why would he stop?

The Democrats have been trying to force GOP candidates to give straightforward answers to the January 6 question for two years in order to split the extremists from the moderates. Ironically, now it will be Trump who will be doing the same thing. Whether he succeeds or not may determine the outcome of both the primaries and the general election.

DeSantis doesn’t have a background in business, and doesn’t seem to have much sympathy for businessmen. His battles against “woke capital” have played a larger role in his campaigns than business tax cuts and deregulation. He’s clearly not a budget cutter. As president, would he be a national conservative?

Possibly, but I wouldn’t bet on it. DeSantis is going to be begging for support from the GOP establishment in a battle against Trump. He could get it, but only if he falls into line on regressive tax cuts and deregulation. I think he will find that a price worth paying.

I’m most thankful this year for things that didn’t happen, including the following:

1. Sure, my house was flooded by storm surge during Ian. But I’m not living in an RV or a tent, and I wasn’t there to experience the disaster in person. It could have been a lot worse.
2. Rebuilding will be expensive, but I have insurance, so I won’t have to pay for it out of my own pocket.
3. It may be cold here, but at least I don’t have to drive or fly anywhere for the holiday.
4. The GOP might have won a tiny majority in the House, but they didn’t win the Senate, and the most prominent 2020 election deniers lost.
5. The USMT might have blown a lead against Wales, but things aren’t so bad; I could be a fan of Germany or Argentina.

And so on. Happy Thanksgiving!

When Matt Damon told us that “Fortune favors the brave,” he should have added, “but only if they aren’t stupid.” Crypto has no inherent value, is backed by nothing in particular, and serves no useful purpose for anyone other than criminals. Given its weaknesses, and lacking reasonable regulation, its collapse was completely predictable.

It shouldn’t surprise you to hear that its supporters were primarily right-wing libertarian types. Let’s hope they lost lots of money on it.

Given his record, I’m amazed that Trump wasn’t involved in some way.