Month: August 2020

Left to his own devices, Donald Trump would almost certainly make a deal with the Democrats for a huge stimulus. After all, he doesn’t care about the deficit; he wants to run for re-election backed by a roaring economy. Nothing other than winning in November matters to him in the slightest.

But being unmoored from ideology frequently means that he follows the advice of the last person he sees– often, Meadows. Meadows is a CL. He hates spending and deficits. He has apparently persuaded Trump against all logic that holding the line on spending in a recession and a pandemic is a political winner.

The recovery is stalling, and may even go into reverse thanks to the stupidity of the man on golf cart and his henchman. That will cost Trump bigly in November. As a result, we may well be able to thank Meadows for saving us from a second national nightmare.

Trump is clearly behind today. What could happen between now and the election that would change the picture? Here are some possibilities:

1. A V-SHAPED RECOVERY: Sure, and pigs could fly. With the foolish withdrawal of stimulus and the opening of schools, a third wave of the virus is much more likely.
2. A VACCINE: Expect Trump to trumpet something, anything, as a medical miracle ending the virus. That won’t happen before November, either.
3. A WAR: I’ve predicted a war with Iran for years. Trump’s lack of enthusiasm for war has been the one pleasant surprise of his administration. Still, the advantages are obvious, and the possibility can’t be dismissed.
4. AN OCTOBER SURPRISE FROM BARR: He’s certainly capable of generating something out of nothing, but at this point, nobody is going to believe him.
5. A DRAMATIC ESCALATION OF THE VIOLENCE: You could imagine Trump egging on supporters to shoot protesters and then claiming that “he alone” can stop the violence. Too cynical? This is Trump we’re talking about, my friends.
6. VOTE SUPPRESSION: The mail is already an issue. Militia activity around polling places could follow. We have to be ready for anything.

My greatest fear at this point is that we will see a proliferation of armed right-wing militias interjecting themselves into protests and even the election. With the escalating violence, victims on both sides, and Fox News talking heads lionizing Trump-addled killers, we’re getting dangerously close to that precipice.

A word to the wise, my protester friends: the right has guns and the willingness to use them. The left doesn’t have anything like that. If you engage in violence, you aren’t just helping Trump make his case to the electorate; you’re putting your lives, and everyone else’s, at risk. Don’t do it. Keep your eyes on the prize, and keep the protests peaceful.

My head says it’s Mitch McConnell. He openly put partisan politics ahead of the national interest in 2009-2010, and he’s likely to do it again if Biden wins in November. His treatment of Merrick Garland was disgraceful. He has a model of minority rule through the federal system and the judiciary that is dangerous to the health of our political system. He matters. He needs to go.

But my heart says it’s Lindsey Graham. There’s just something about his obsequiousness towards a man you know he despises and the self-righteous violence of his reactionary rhetoric that drives me nuts. Besides, he might actually lose. The likelihood of beating McConnell is much lower.

The winner is . . . Graham, by a nose.

WITH OR WITHOUT YOU

See our numbers in free fall.

Can this work in the long haul?

I doubt it, too.

___________________

It’s a nasty twist of fate.

We’ve seen the future; it’s not great.

And the blame is on you.

With or without you.

With or without you.

______________________

In a storm; can’t reach the shore.

We’ve given all, but you want more.

And the bill has come due.

With or without you.

With or without you.

We can’t win, with or without you.

________________

And you push swing votes away.

And you push swing votes away.

And you push

And you push

And you push swing votes away.

With or without you.

With or without you.

We can’t win

With or without you.

__________________

Parody of “With or Without You” by U2.

Barring a monumental October surprise, Trump’s best hope is to run against the protesters and hope that he can scare undecided voters into his camp. Think of Willie Horton, only to the nth power. Can it work?

It can’t be written off entirely, particularly if the violence becomes more intense and widespread, but conditions are significantly different now than they were in 1988. Public perceptions of the two candidates are much less fluid than they were 32 years ago. Partly as a result of that, and partly due to ideological polarization, there are far fewer undecided voters now than there were then. There was no pandemic and no recession in 1988. It is difficult for Trump to make the case that he alone can stop the violence when he isn’t actually doing it. Finally, Biden will fight back against the Trojan Horse narrative. He learned from Dukakis’ mistakes.

We all know that Trump uses his powers of outrage to make his orthodox, plutocrat-friendly positions on taxes and regulation palatable to the Reactionary wing of the GOP. The irony here is that Biden, if elected, is likely to do precisely the opposite. He will use his reputation for good sense and moderation to help sell very progressive positions on taxes, child care, health care, and climate change to the general public.

Sometimes it’s the salesman, not the product. Trump would be happy to tell you that; it has worked for him all of his life.

I have to admit it–I snapped. I could only bring myself to watch small parts of it, and I turned off Trump a little before 11:00. Not that I missed anything valuable.

Here are a few observations:

1. The whole context was kind of in-between. It wasn’t exactly a MAGA rally, given the White House setting and the kind and number of people in the audience, but it wasn’t an intimate speech, either. The analogy to a State of the Union seems appropriate. I’m not sure that will either fire up the base or convince wavering voters.
2. Another day, another Hatch Act violation. These people don’t care if they violate the law. The law is for suckers. It’s all about power for them, and gaslighting for the rest of us.
3. When Trump talks about American exceptionalism, he’s just mouthing words that someone else wrote for him. He doesn’t believe any of it.
4. I bet a large percentage of Americans turned him off about the time I did. It’s stupid to speak that late at night. The same observation goes for the Democrats.
5. Ivanka Trump simply doesn’t have enough gravitas to pull off the tasks that she is given in this administration, including her speech last night.
6. It’s never a good sign when you have to parade so many people up on stage to say you’re not a sexist and a racist. Do you believe them, or your lyin’ eyes?
7. His plan for the virus is for everyone to live what used to be a normal life, and take one for the team, if necessary. The lives of thousands of Americans don’t matter. It’s all about GDP and the stock market.
8. Alternative facts. So many alternative facts. In the end, that may well be the concept for which this administration is remembered.

Michael Cohen has taped a new ad in which he warns Americans not to trust Donald Trump. Is he right?

Of course he is–and he should know. Trump has been ripping off people all his life; it is his business model. In his view, the world is divided into the shrewd and ruthless on one hand, and suckers on the other. It is the natural order of things for the suckers to be exploited by the shrewd and ruthless. He makes no apologies for it.

Winning in November would be the ultimate con. This time, Trump can’t just hit and run; he has to persuade an American public that has seen him operate for almost four years that there is no pandemic or recession and that the real danger to America is from a bland old gentleman and his supporters. He has to sell us on a vision of America that directly conflicts with what is staring us all in the face. Having told over 20,000 lies during his time in office, he has to convince us that this time, he is telling the truth.

God help us if there are enough suckers out there to prove him right.

A successful strongman is a tough act to follow. Just ask Maduro.

Which, of course, leads us to Mike Pence. Pence reminds me of Malvolio; he’s obsequious to his boss and self-righteous with everyone else. You can find his picture next to “smarmy” in the dictionary. His speeches and ideas don’t work at any level higher than a Rotary Club. In his defense, however, you can say that he isn’t completely insane or corrupt, and that he would be unlikely to destroy the republic. It’s a pathetically low bar, but that’s where we are today.

Could Pence win the nomination in 2024? I doubt it, because Trump has made owning the libs the most important task of a GOP president, and Pence doesn’t really have that in his skill set. He’s broadly acceptable to the various elements of the party, but he doesn’t excite any of them. That approach has worked with Biden and the Democrats, but the GOP base is a different animal entirely, and I think they will prefer someone like Cotton.

Conservative Libertarians are the intellectual heirs of the Anti-Federalists. In a nutshell, they see the federal government as an enemy, and the president as a potential latter day George III. The principal task of the citizenry is to push back against any encroachment on their freedoms by the tyrants in Washington who are forever trying to extend their powers beyond the four corners of the Constitution.

While the CLs are more than adequately represented in the world of pundits, there aren’t many prominent pure CL officeholders. Rand Paul comes the closest to the ideal type. Given his ideology, you would think that Paul would be horrified by the Mussolini wannabe in the White House. But nooooooo! He even provided a gushing testimonial for Trump on national TV last night.

If you’re looking for concrete evidence as to the level of decay within the GOP, you could do far worse than that.

The following statements about Trump are beyond dispute:

1. He desperately wants to have high TV ratings; and
2. He thinks climate change is an insignificant problem at best, and a hoax at worst.

Hence, the irony of the prospect of having Trump’s speech on Thursday being upstaged by the landfall of what is likely to be a very powerful hurricane in Texas or Louisiana.

Having been through this on multiple occasions, I feel for the affected population, but for Trump, it’s meteorological justice.

On the head diplomat they call Mike.

There just isn’t much there to like.

He spoke overseas.

While his boss will be pleased

We should tell him to go take a hike.

I didn’t stay up to watch Melania’s speech, because . . . I don’t care. There is nothing about her and her life that connects her with me, or 330 million Americans. She can’t speak for anyone but herself. She doesn’t matter, for good or ill.

The presentation last night was factually false, occasionally surreal, corrupt at times, and disjointed. “Factually false” applies to virtually everyone. The naturalization scene would make a great skit on SNL. Larry Kudlow talking about the roaring recovery, as if we didn’t have double digit unemployment and a pandemic out of control, was both ludicrous and par for the course. Tiffany Trump going on and on about the vast elite left-wing conspiracy didn’t win dear old dad any friends. Mike Pompeo’s wooden speech from Israel was a gross violation of the principle that partisan politics end at the water’s edge. As with the previous night, the combination of angry denunciations of the extreme left with more soothing presentations was jarring. Some of the individual speakers were, in isolation, pretty effective, but I don’t think the totality of it is working.

Looking forward to some stirring oratory from Mike Pence tonight? Me, neither.

Walker was emphatic yesterday that Trump is not a racist. Is he right?

No, but it has to be admitted that Trump’s racism is somewhat unusual. The man on golf cart divides the world into winners (like him, of course) and losers. People of color are presumptively losers, because they are poor, powerless, and feckless. However, successful black athletes like Muhammad Ali, Walker, and Tiger Woods rebut the presumption; they are wealthy and physically powerful, so they are “winners” entitled to respect.

And so, Trump’s racism only extends to 99.9 percent of the black population. Do you find that reassuring? Didn’t think so.