Month: August 2020

To any reasonably sane American, Hillary Clinton ran as a relatively bloodless, left-center technocrat in 2016. Nothing much to fear there, right? Not according to the Reactionary wing of the GOP, which viewed the election as the last chance to save the country from annihilation–the electoral equivalent of Flight 93. They didn’t have a majority, and they needed lots of help from unusual sources, but they won.

This year, both parties see the election as a Flight 93. The new GOP horsemen are socialists, rioters, and cancel culture warriors. The Democrats, on the other hand, see the nation changed beyond recognition if Trump pulls it out by the inept response to the pandemic, the recession, and the looming threat of the caudillo unleashed.

The winner will be the candidate who persuades swing voters that his chosen apocalypse is more frightening. My prediction? Only Fox viewers are worried about rampaging leftists in the suburbs and cancel culture, while everyone is affected by the recession and the pandemic. I don’t think the GOP nightmare is real enough to undecided voters to carry the day.

There for a moment, I knew how Alexei Navalny felt.

It was the scene in the White House, right after the film celebrating Trump’s victory over the virus. Trump awkwardly offered thanks to the little people without whom his great triumph would have been impossible, including Post Office employees. The little people, for their part, shook their heads at the unfounded attacks on the great man by the radical left, and applauded him fulsomely for his genius.

Is this a parallel universe, or what?

Trump has to thread the needle here by soothing the fears of whatever moderate swing voters are still out there, while still firing up his base. I don’t think he is succeeding, because the anger is overwhelming the bridge over troubled waters. Don Jr. in particular was so amped up, I thought he was going to jump through my TV screen and punch me in the face. That isn’t going to get it done.

Nikki Haley was the best of the bridges, but she’s wrong if she thinks she can win in 2024 by quietly rejecting the worst excesses of Trumpism. The right isn’t going to vote for a woman who helped get rid of the Confederate flag. It just isn’t going to happen.

What could a President Biden do to stop the virus? Due to previous events and our federal system, less than we would like.

The proper role of the federal government in this crisis is to provide consistent, science-based planning guidance and to facilitate and coordinate the production and distribution of PPE. The latter doesn’t appear to be a big problem at this stage of the crisis. The former, of course, is a totally different matter. Trump failed miserably, and worse, made mask wearing a culture war issue; he’s consequently responsible for tens of thousands of deaths. As a practical matter, that damage cannot be undone.

Biden has suggested a nationwide mask mandate. Would that help? Probably not, for two reasons. First, his legal authority to impose one is questionable at the very least. Second, because Trump has succeeded in associating masks with liberals, you can guess how members of the right would react to a national mandate. Thirty percent of the population would probably immediately refuse to wear masks as a political protest, which would make the mandate practically unenforceable.

The best course at this point is consistent, gentle persuasion. It won’t work perfectly, but all of the alternatives are worse.

One of the functions of a convention is to help the faithful identify the next leaders of the party. The list of speakers for this year’s extravaganza, however, is very heavily weighted towards Trump family members and loyalists, and low on potential candidates for 2020. Pence is on the list, of course, but that could hardly be avoided. Tom Cotton and Nikki Haley are also on the list. Rubio and Cruz are not included; nor are any members of the Bush family. Josh Hawley is also excluded.

What does this mean? There will be no distance between the party and pure Trumpism in the eyes of the voters in 2020. There will be no meaningful policy debates, and no logical successor will emerge. Everything will be put on hold until after the election. If Trump loses, all hell will break loose.

Tens of millions of Americans will be tuned into the GOP convention in the hope of hearing a plausible plan for dealing with the virus. For the most part, you can expect the speakers to ignore the pandemic and talk about rioting and looting, but with eight hours of time to fill, it can’t be disregarded completely. What can you expect?

Something like this:

1. The virus is an act of God, and the Chinese. No one could have done much about it.
2. We’re working really hard for a vaccine. It’s coming . . . soon. Keep the faith.
3. In the meantime, go back to bars and restaurants and take one for the team, if necessary.

It will be interesting to see to what extent the speakers–particularly Trump himself–identify with the anti-mask crowd. It’s in his best interest to avoid that, but he may not be able to help himself. He rarely can.

Biden and the Democrats won a decisive victory in 2020. But not quite decisive enough; the GOP managed to squeak out enough wins to maintain control of the Senate.

Faced with a splintering party, McConnell predictably dug in, looking for more of that old 2010 magic. He made it clear to Biden that there would be no more stimulus–in fact, the entire blue agenda was going nowhere. He would agree to keep the lights on and hold a few hearings on judges, but that was it.

Understandably frustrated, the left demanded that Biden follow Trump and use executive actions to accomplish what could not be done through legislation. For the most part, Biden refused, saying that he had no interest in subverting the Constitution. Moderates and constitutional purists applauded his restraint, but the public did not.

Violent protests broke out in several large cities. The right–with Trump and Tom Cotton in the lead–called for the use of overwhelming force in the name of law and order. Biden left the problem to state and local officials, with mixed results. Who gained from the deadlock? The GOP, of course. The public blamed Biden and the protesters, not McConnell and the obstructionist GOP Senate. The honeymoon was already over.

(The moral of the story is obvious–winning the Senate is really, really important, even if a bare majority probably won’t be enough to get large parts of the agenda through).

I was going to say “GOP Convention,” but the GOP is nothing but Donald Trump, and this extravaganza will prove it. Here’s what you can expect to see:

1. PANDEMIC? WHAT PANDEMIC?: It’s an act of God. No one could have done any better. As Mark McGwire once said, “I’m not here to talk about the past.”
2. EVERYONE ELSE IS TO BLAME: Blame Cuomo. Blame Newsom. Blame Pelosi. Blame Fauci. Blame Birx. Blame Schumer. Above all, blame China. They’re at fault for everything. I’m not even sure I like Xi anymore.
3. BIDEN IS A SENILE, WIMPY TROJAN HORSE: Look at me and how smart and virile I am! I’m still young and spry enough to play 36 holes (using a cart, of course) every day! Take that, Biden!
4. TAX CUTS AND CONSERVATIVE JUDGES: You liked the first four years. You ain’t seen nothing yet. The payroll tax and the capital gains tax are going down, America! Giving money to rich people is what makes this country great!
5. THE ENEMY WITHIN: Last time, the arch-villains were illegal immigrants. This time, it’s the rioters and looters. They’re coming for you, America! You’re just lucky that Batman is still here to protect Gotham City.

To the authors of the 1619 Project, America is the Evil Empire. Its history is nothing but a series of crimes against people of color, made even more intolerable by hypocritical cant about equality and democracy. First, of course, was the expropriation of land from Native Americans; then came slavery, which still permeates our Constitution today. Then, after the Civil War, came the failure of Reconstruction and the emergence of Jim Crow. Following that, the New Deal was designed and implemented to create a welfare state that deliberately only helped white people. Segregation, even in the northern states, was reinforced through redlining and restrictive covenants, thereby robbing black* people of opportunities enjoyed widely by whites. Law enforcement and the criminal justice system discriminated against people of color and created what amounted to a new form of slavery through the penal system. Today, the government does its best to keep people of color from voting, and the police kill black people with impunity all over the country. It’s all part of the same ugly story, and it never gets any better. White people are criminals. They need to apologize, and pay up.

*I have decided to follow The Economist on the “Black” vs. “black” issue. I won’t use “Black” until it does.

To reactionaries, the world looks completely different. Slavery was a crime, yes, but that was over 150 years ago. In any event, their ancestors didn’t own any slaves, and they obviously don’t, either. They’ve worked their butts off all their lives, and never asked the government for any assistance. The system doesn’t value their skills much anymore, and they don’t live as well as their parents. They’ve never discriminated against people of color. Why can’t black people just suck it up and work as hard as they do just to survive, instead of calling them racists and trying to pick their pockets? They’re the real victims here, not the whiny black people.

This is the conflict that is tearing our country apart. In the middle, we have people like me who think that the 1619 Project is a seriously incomplete view of American history, and that the reactionaries are just full of crap. How do we get to a middle ground?

We can start by getting both sides to admit to the following inconvenient truths:

On the 1619 Project side:

1. Slavery was hardly unique to the United States, and the progeny of those who gained economic benefits from it live all over the world, including in Africa.
2. Millions of Americans, including plenty of people in the South, received no benefit whatsoever from slavery, whose economic impacts on the United States have been grossly overstated in some recent publications.
3. Hundreds of thousands of Union soldiers died to free the slaves. Millions of people in the Union states suffered personal and economic losses as a result of the Civil War. If slavery was the country’s original sin, it has already been redeemed in blood.
4. The system today is color-blind on its face, with the exception of affirmative action programs. The responsibility for creating wealth inequities rests primarily with our ancestors, not us, so guilt should not really be part of the equation.
5. It is possible to believe in limited government, traditional values, and self-reliance without being a racist.

For the reactionaries:

1. Slavery and Jim Crow were indeed a crime against humanity.
2. The inequities built in to the New Deal welfare state were real, and had significant lingering effects that are still being felt to this day. These are not manifestations of the dead hand of a distant past. There are plenty of people alive today who were involved in them in one way or another.
3. The effects of residential segregation are also being felt today in the form of reduced wealth and opportunities for people of color. The evidence for the wealth gap, which is due primarily to actions taken by our ancestors after the abolition of slavery, is overwhelming.
4. While law enforcement and the criminal justice system may be color-blind on their face, in practice, they are not.
5. There is plenty of evidence which suggests that racial discrimination is still an ongoing problem in employment and housing.

We cannot legislate racism out of existence, but if we can agree on a set of facts and resolve to address inequities in the system as social problems, not crimes committed by the current population, we can actually get to an acceptable Point B.

To the surprise of exactly nobody, Trump has already previewed a major theme of the upcoming convention by telling the world that only he stands between real America and anarchy. This is, of course, an echo of his infamous “I alone” speech from 2016.

If I’m a conservative with a mind that hasn’t atrophied too much, I would ask the following questions:

1. You said that you alone would put an end to violent crime. Why didn’t you do it? What are you waiting for?
2. How can you say that you alone can keep me safe from anarchist violence when you’re not doing anything to stop it now?
3. In fact, isn’t opposition to you a big reason for the protests?

When I start imagining the Republican convention, the first image that comes to mind is a drill team performing a dance number, with half of the participants carrying a cross, and the other half brandishing assault rifles. It is a right-wing response to Beyonce’s “Formation.”

The two icons have equal and complementary meanings to reactionaries. The cross stands for the imagined divine support for a social order in which white Christian men are on top, and everyone else isn’t. The gun means strength, independence, and limited government, as opposed to noisy women and minorities whining about privilege and demanding free stuff from the government.

That’s the message that Trump will be sending next week. He and his allies–the defenders of the cross and the gun–are the only true Americans; everyone else can love it or get out.

After Trump, which Republican would you most like to see go crashing to an ignominious defeat? Lindsey Graham? Mitch McConnell? Someone else?

I’ll give you my opinion (I admit, I’m struggling with it), along with anyone else’s, next Friday.

At 10:30 last night, if you had asked me, I would have settled for barely competent. Instead, Biden’s speech was . . . terrific.

It fit right in with the taped introduction. It didn’t have any pablum or filler. It immediately reassured the reactionary right, albeit in language that could have been a little more explicit. It was delivered clearly and forcefully. It was consistent with the themes that ran throughout the convention. It contained just enough policy to be meaningful. Finally, it made the contrast between the personalities and programs of the two candidates as stark as it could possibly be. I couldn’t possibly want more than that.

Kudos, too, to Julia-Louis Dreyfus, who was perfect. I wish she had been on all four nights.

Next week, Trump will try to make the case that Biden is too old and mentally slow to be our president. Good luck with that.

On the ex-president named Barack.

He put Donald Trump in the dock.

He called him unfit.

That’s true, where I sit.

He’s a shepherd who preys on his flock.

Reactionary political figures typically succeed by persuading their followers to believe them instead of their lying eyes. If you’re greedy, the logical next step in the process is to sell worthless products and services instead of ideas to the faithful.

Just ask Steve Bannon. And he’s not the only one. Imagine what Trump could do with that market once he leaves office. It boggles the mind.

The unacknowledged elephant in the room at the convention thus far has been the roughly 30 percent of Americans who unconditionally support Trump because they believe they are threatened with extinction by liberal elites who hate white Christians. Trump himself is only important because they stand behind him. They are the force that potentially opposes liberal democracy in this country.

It will be up to Biden to reassure them if he really wants to bring the country together and protect the system. Will he try? I don’t know, but I certainly hope so.