The conventional wisdom is that Trump benefits from the violence. Is it correct?
It depends. If the riots stop relatively soon, and the focus of the nation remains on the initial injustice, probably not. If they intensify and expand, the public may become genuinely fearful, the conversation will change, and Trump’s inflammatory bluster will be received more favorably.
Division is the only card in Donald Trump’s deck. It’s who he is, and what he does. His whole political career is based on the assumption that his base is large enough to win national elections by itself, thanks to the magic of vote suppression and the Electoral College. That’s not what actually happened in 2016, but he thinks it did, and for the purposes of this post, it is his belief that matters.
So how does Biden deal with this? By focusing his ire on Trump, and not his supporters. There can be no “deplorables” in this campaign. He should make it clear that the culture wars will not be unleashed during his administration, and that white Christians are still valued in this country. Just because they don’t have the right to run it purely in their own interests anymore doesn’t mean the gas chambers are the next step in the process.
But, you say, Obama tried to unify the country, and look what happened! That’s true, but things have changed. Obama failed, in spite of his best efforts, because he was the first African-American president, and a large segment of the country simply could not accept it; Biden, on the other hand, is a white man with strong political roots in the African-American community. He’s uniquely qualified to bring the country together. Furthermore, we’ve now lived through the horrors of 3+ years of Trump. That counts for something, too.
It will be a difficult job. Difficult is not the same as impossible. I will address this in more detail in a future post.
I woke up this morning with the thought that Trump would be happy to burn down half of America as long as he gets to be recognized as the leader of the other half.
Flight 93, anyone?
In a new Trump commercial, the man on golf cart stomps grimly towards the camera, chest out, arms swinging, looking like a gorilla. The announcer tells us proudly that he’s “a bull in a china shop.” The message is raw and clear: these are tough times; the world is full of evil, dangerous people who hate real Americans; and we need a strong man to protect us. Wimps wearing masks need not apply.
The message is designed to appeal to angry men with too much testosterone, and both men and women who feel insecure in difficult times. How should Biden counter it?
By showing that Orange Jesus did not keep us safe from the pandemic; in fact, he refused to take any responsibility for it. By providing the visual evidence that the alleged strongman actually sucks up to dictators, and only bullies our friends. By proving that what Trump calls strength is actually bluster, capriciousness, stupidity, selfishness, and mindless brutality. By showing the recent evidence that divisiveness only leads to a cycle of violence, which threatens us all.
Over to you, Mr. Vice President.
The Trump campaign clearly believes it can win a few African-American votes by talking about issues like criminal justice reform. His very public direction for an FBI investigation of the events in Minneapolis should be viewed in that context. It didn’t take long, however, for him to revert to type by calling for the shooting of looters on Twitter. Nothing less would have satisfied his reactionary base.
Which of these two messages do you think will resonate more with African-Americans?
Historically, libertarians conceded that their freedom to do as they please ended with the rights of others. Today, the public face of libertarianism is a white guy waving an assault rifle in front of a state building and demanding the “right” to infect people with the virus if it serves his economic interests. The new ethic combines the concepts of rights and power; in other words, the strong (or, at least, the swaggering) have a right to do whatever they can, and if the weak can’t or won’t stand up for themselves, the government shouldn’t intervene in their favor. That, allegedly, is the American way. Where did this come from?
The new libertarians are actually reactionaries, not libertarians. They feel aggrieved by a government that doesn’t accept their vision of an America dominated by white Christian men, and they resent the loss of economic status that has come with the evolution of the knowledge economy. They have responded with ostentatious displays of toxic masculinity directed at women, minorities, and government. Given power, their supposed libertarianism disappears overnight, as they expand government to reward their friends and punish their enemies. That’s what being a reactionary means in America today.
We know that Trump will rely on his ability to lie during the debates. After all, it has worked for him in the past. It worked for Romney during the first debate in 2012, too. How should Biden respond?
If I were in his position, I would carry a device similar to the one used to count pitches in baseball on stage. I would announce up front that I would be using the device to tally up Trump’s lies. I would then make a big display of clicking it every time he lies, and begin every response to a question by noting and correcting any previous lies.
That would drive the man on golf cart nuts, and hearten everyone who despises him.
Sebastian here. I’ve just returned from one of those big pool parties you saw on network TV. Since the whole world seems to be down on us, I thought I should explain why I think that’s OK.
Three things made this country great: freedom; rugged individuals; and God. The lockdown orders and the wimpy masks are an affront to all three. Their impact on individual freedom is obvious; they just encourage people to be wimps, instead of strong and self-reliant real Americans; and they encourage people to look to the government, not God, for a solution to the virus problem. Hell, you can’t even go to church in some places! Is that outrageous, or what!
I’m just going to keep on exercising the freedoms my ancestors fought to win for me whether you like it or not. That’s what this country is all about. You don’t have veto power over my rights. If I get the virus, I’ll face it like a man, and not count on the damn government to help me out. If you’re afraid of it, and you think I might give it to you, you can just use your freedom to stay at home or wear a wimpy mask. Just don’t expect me, or any other real American, to give up our God-given rights to protect you, because that’s not the American way.
On the Democrat nominee Biden.
In his basement some said he was hidin’.
Trump rants and he rails;
The economy fails;
And the lead will continue to widen.
Reggie Miller apparently called Michael Jordan “Black Jesus.” How about “Orange Jesus?”
We know how Trump will campaign against Biden. He will attempt to belittle him at every turn; he will blame liberals, governors, China, the MSM, and anyone other than himself for his failures; and he will lie, over and over again, about his record and Biden’s. How should Biden respond to this?
Nancy Pelosi drives Trump nuts by patronizing him. Ted Cruz did the same thing, with some success, during the 2016 debates. A similar approach might work for Biden between now and November.
As you would expect from a group of used car salesmen, Trump and his economic advisers are predicting that the economy will come roaring back in the next few quarters. According to Politico, one former Obama economic adviser thinks they’re right. Are they?
In my opinion, no, although conditions are likely to be improving, simply because they can’t get much worse. The lack of a viable plan for the control of the virus will reduce consumer confidence for the foreseeable future, as I’ve noted many times before. Publicity given to a wave of bankruptcies will impact confidence, too. GOP-driven austerity measures, particularly relating to unemployment insurance and state and local governments, won’t help. The possible escalation of the trade war with China for domestic political reasons could rattle the markets. Finally, we are going to see some serious debt crises among the emerging countries, particularly in Latin America, and tourism and exports will continue to be crippled by the virus.
I just don’t see how a V-shaped recovery is reasonably possible under these circumstances. It will be something between a V and a U. Whether the electorate will view that as a glass half full or half empty remains to be seen.
Imagine that you are Governor Cooper of North Carolina. You have just received a communication from the Trump campaign that you had better open up unconditionally, or the convention could be moved from Charlotte. How do you respond?
This is a blatantly political move from a notorious bully. He thinks he has leverage over you in the form of lost revenue from the convention, but he can’t really afford to move the convention from a swing state, particularly at this late hour.
Be polite and respectful, but firm. Tell him that you look forward to working with the RNC and his people to make the convention work, but make it clear that the health of your citizens, and the delegates at the convention, is an overriding priority. It’s too early to commit to anything right now. Your actions will be driven by the public health data at the time and sound practices, not a desire to make money at any cost.
That, in all likelihood, will shut him up. If not, you have made the case for public health being the highest priority in your state. Don’t be afraid to run on that in November.
If you had any doubt about it, the images from Memorial Day made it clear: this election, to a large extent, will be a battle between the side that wears masks and the side that doesn’t. How will that work out?
Trump’s swagger is largely intended to give people who are worried about the future a sense of security. Under normal circumstances, at a psychological level, it makes sense. Will it have the same effect in a pandemic, particularly among the elderly? By insisting on reopening at any costs, by identifying with lockdown protesters, and by refusing to wear a mask, isn’t he sending a message to workers and the elderly that he considers them expendable?
Indeed he is, and he is likely to pay for it in November.
Jared Kushner apparently has the idea of reducing the size of the GOP platform to an index card. It sounds a bit like the old plan to put the tax form on a postcard, which didn’t exactly work out. Can this be more successful?
Absolutely! Here’s an idea for a one-word platform:
TRUMP!
Hey, why say anything more than that? The real GOP platform is to agree with anything that pops into the brilliant mind of the man on golf cart at any given moment. Traditional ideas like balanced budgets, free trade, and support for liberal democracies and the rule of law are out of date. Why not just rely on the name and be done with it?
OK, so you want a little more substance. How’s this:
REAL AMERICANS!
CULTURE WARS!
TAX CUTS!
DEREGULATION!
BUILD THE WALL!
That’s ten words. It’s enough to exhaust a man who only reads bullet points. Anything more, to him, would look like “War and Peace.”