Month: March 2017

It has been widely reported that Trump, in response to policy concerns expressed by members of the Freedom Caucus, told them not to worry about “little sh__” and to focus on the big picture.  It is safe to assume that the big picture is Trump’s image as the supreme maker of deals and his approval ratings.

That is the problem with Trump in a nutshell.  He doesn’t care about the American people and whether they can afford health insurance.  He doesn’t even care about his own party.  The only thing that motivates him is the desire to be viewed as “the man.”

To the NYT:  Stop calling me an erratic autocrat, or I’ll change the libel laws and really kick your butt!

Crooked New York Times keeps portraying me as a narcissistic, ignorant, bumbling autocrat.  I’m not an autocrat.  Sad!

One of the principal questions about the new administration is whether its foreign policy would be completely unconventional, or conventional in an erratic, blustery, and militaristic way.  It’s early days, but thus far, the answer mostly is (b), except that Trump appears to want the worst of all possible worlds by alienating our allies and undermining confidence in our willingness to lead.

Perhaps we will learn more after the Xi visit.  Hope he likes to play golf.

The Republicans had a field day with their cynical and opportunistic attacks on the ACA during the Obama Administration.  Knowing perfectly well that their plan, to the extent they had one, was to cut costs by making insurance on the exchanges less valuable and less affordable, they exploited complaints from the public that the deductibles and co-pays were too high.  Once in power, they wrote legislation that made no sense except as a redistribution of wealth from the poor to the rich. It turned into a fiasco.

If you think that was bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet.  Wait until we have another financial crisis.

Obama won the 2008 election largely because the electorate correctly perceived that tax cuts for the wealthy and deregulation, the GOP’s perennial favorite option, were not a viable solution to the crash.  The GOP responded by creating a bizarro alternative narrative of the crash in which financial institutions were blameless, and the government was at fault by doing too much to encourage poor people to buy homes.  Consistent with that (and their own interests), the Republicans want to get rid of Dodd-Frank and unleash the banks again, while all the while insisting that there must be no more bailouts.

If we have another crisis, the survival instincts of the self-styled “King of Debt” will probably send him in the correct direction, but his party is another matter. The GOP, on the whole, is the party of gold bugs, high interest rates, and no bailouts.  Calvin Coolidge and Andrew Mellon are their role models, not FDR and Obama.  How could Trump get a new version of TARP through the system?

It will be a complete nightmare.

To the Dems:  be bipartisan and get behind me, or else!

So the GOP turns now to tax.

And their leaders play loose with the facts.

Will their bill help the rich?

If it does, that’s a bitch.

I don’t think they can cover their tracks.

In the UK, coal miners are left-wing icons:  a band of working class brothers martyred on the cross of uncaring capitalism during the 1980’s.  In America in 2017, they are the vanguard of the Trump right-wing counterrevolution, to the point that Trump is willing to isolate the country diplomatically, endanger the health of its citizens, and forfeit the more numerous jobs of less visible people working in clean industry to protect their interests.

How can this be?  How can we account for such a vast difference?

There are two explanations:

1.  Thatcher wasn’t concerned about the environment; her motivations were political and financial.  As a result, the battle with the miners looked like class warfare.  In 2017 America, the miners have already lost the war to market forces, but the GOP has convinced them that their real enemy is environmental regulations, not the market or their bosses.
2.  Miners tend to be cultural conservatives in this country.  The culture war is a far less prominent factor in politics in the UK than it is here.

 

He lost an opportunity to show off his screwball.  Oh, wait . . .

There is an interesting article by Peter Beinart in the latest issue of The Atlantic regarding religion and Trump voters.  The article concludes that Trump’s core supporters are not pious evangelicals (they voted for Cruz), but rather, people who can best be described as nominal Christians.  He concludes from this that the decline of faith in America actually helped Trump get elected.

He makes a persuasive case, for two reasons.  First, his citations to survey data (I’ve seen similar information elsewhere) are pretty convincing.   Second, his thesis is consistent with a very significant and clearly observable trend over the last ten years or so: the decline of the Christian Democrat (CD) faction of the Republican Party.

It can be difficult to remember now, but George W. Bush campaigned, and to some extent governed, as a “compassionate conservative.”  The CD wing of the GOP had nearly as much influence at the time as the PBPs.  Today, due largely to the failures of the Bush Administration, the CDs are wandering in the political wilderness of Trumpworld:  a faction without a home in either party.

The decline of the CDs is bad news for the American political system.  CDs are sober and responsible.  They care about the entirety of society.  You may disagree about the means with them, but you can usually agree about the ends, and you can make deals with them.  They are the bedrock of reasonable, stable government.

Can their fortunes be revived?  That will be the subject of a post during Holy Week.

My parody of “Mr. Jones,” like the original, portrayed the protagonist as an insecure, testosterone-crazed rock star wannabe who, for reasons he doesn’t completely understand, desperately wants to be famous.  It occurred to me afterwards that we should probably view the real Trump in much the same way, his vastly advanced age notwithstanding.  He doesn’t care about the GOP, the country, or even his own followers;  he just wants to be the center of attention at all times.  Period.

 

After the AHCA debacle, you can expect Christie and other GOP bigwigs to call on Trump to save himself by replacing the Not Ready for Prime Time Players around him with real professionals.  It won’t happen, for the following reasons:

1.  It was the “professionals,” not the amateurs, who failed over AHCA;
2.  It is far from clear that the “professionals” have the ability to paper over the very real policy differences within the GOP.  After all, Boehner couldn’t do it;  and
3.  Trump isn’t the kind of person who is going to permit the “professionals” to turn him into a figurehead.

Get used to it:  given Trump’s views on management, there will be constant churn within his administration, but there will be no James Baker moment. What you see today is what you get.

 

                   Mr. Trump

Hanging out at Trump Tower

Staring at this yellow-haired girl.

Mr. Trump pulls out a family photo

Of a brown-haired Slovenian model.

He says she’s no longer a ten

But she’s awfully beautiful.

We all want something beautiful.

Man, I wish I was beautful.

 

So come join the two of us down at the White House.

Sha la la la la la la la la la la yeah.

Uh huh.

 

Cut up, Melania!

Show us some Slovenian dancing

And make me an offer, Mr. Trump.

Believe in me

‘Cause I don’t believe in anything

And I want to be someone who believes.

 

Mr. Trump and me

Storming through the campaign.

We stare at the beautiful women.

She’s perfect for you

There’s got to be somebody for me.

I want to be Steve Bannon.

Mr. Trump wants to be a strong man like Putin.

When everybody loves you

That’s about as Putin as you can be.

 

Mr. Trump and me

Staring at the video.

When we look at the television

We want to see us, staring right back at us.

We all want to be big stars

But we don’t know why

Just a few know how

When everybody loves us

That’s about as happy as you can be.

 

Mr. Trump and me

We’re gonna be big stars.

 

Parody of “Mr. Jones” by Counting Crows.

The 45th President Don.

His Obamacare bill is now gone.

While he’ll move on to tax

Credibility lacks.

For the Democrats, it’s a new dawn.

I’m a loser

And I lost someone who’s dear to me

I’m a loser

And I’m not what I appear to be.

Lennon/McCartney

Imagine that you are Donny Rotten today (I hear you retching in the background).  You sold yourself to the American public, in spite of plenty of evidence to the contrary, as a brilliant businessman and negotiator who could break through the gridlock in Washington and get things done.  You then associated yourself way too closely with a health care plan devised by Paul Ryan that would have hurt your supporters if it had been approved.  You couldn’t close the deal, and now you have been exposed as a bumbler and a failure:  a man on golf cart, not a man on horseback.  There’s nothing you hate more than that. Your Twitter fingers are itching to go turbo.

What do you take away from this mess?  Here is my guess:

1. You simply can’t rely on Ryan to deliver the votes, so don’t lend your name to any of his initiatives unless they have a lot more support than AHCA did.
2. Forget about the cuts to Social Security and Medicare that he wants.  They will be an even bigger fiasco than AHCA.
3. Forget about tax reform, which requires balancing and trade-offs that are beyond the capacity of the GOP, and stick to tax cuts, which are universally popular within the party.
4.  Part of the problem is that you have minimal leverage with Congress because your popularity is down in the dumps.  There’s nothing like victory in a war against a cartoonish opponent to bring up your poll numbers.  Look out, North Korea!