On Obama and Gaza Deals

An Obama deal is a mutually acceptable agreement with Iran over the Iranian nuclear program; its elements include the disposal of nuclear assets for a specified timeframe, temporary limits on enrichment, economic benefits for Iran, and an enforceable system of inspections. It does not include meaningful and genuinely enforceable limits on missile production, a permanent commitment to eschew a peaceful nuclear program, or a promise not to fund proxies. A Gaza deal, on the other hand, is a ceasefire agreement that puts off the major issues to a second phase which may or may not ultimately bear fruit.

If the deal that is being discussed right now is signed, it will be a Gaza deal. It may or may not eventually evolve into an Obama deal. If it doesn’t, we will be back at war, the entire exercise to date will have accomplished none of Trump’s apparent objectives, and we will have even less leverage than we did at the beginning of the year. If it does, we will have a product with some value, but it probably could have been achieved without a war, and the absurdity of recreating a deal that Trump destroyed in his first term will be exposed for the entire world to see.

Either way, the costs of the war will far exceed the benefits.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *