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I have no reason to doubt that Tillerson is a really bright guy, and the fact that James Baker and Bob Gates vouch for him is at least somewhat reassuring.   I can’t remember another Secretary of State whose background was limited to business, however.  In conventional terms, this is a very unusual appointment.

From Trump’s perspective, however, it makes perfect sense;  Tillerson can help him renegotiate all of those terrible trade deals.  If he follows through with the expected Bolton appointment, his diplomatic and national security team will be a perfect mirror of his personality and ideology:  mercantilist; swaggering; militaristic; black and white; and obsessed with Islamic terrorists.

I will be very surprised if we aren’t at war with someone in 2017.  The only question is who;  that is TBD.

There are actually three groupings in the House:  the Republicans; the Democrats; and the Freedom Caucus, which, during the Obama Administration, used extreme obstructionist tactics to promote a limited government agenda. The question today is whether the Freedom Caucus will accept swaggering government in lieu of limited government as long as Trump is President.  If so, the GOP agenda will move smoothly through the House;  if not, you could see the same kind of crises over the debt ceiling increase to which we have become accustomed over the last six years, and Ryan may need Democratic votes to keep the government open.

My guess is that the Freedom Caucus will be driven by the polls.  So long as Trump is perceived to be popular, swaggering will be the order of the day.  If he falls off the charts, obstructionism may return with a vengeance.

After the 2008 election, The Onion memorably published an article with a headline that ran something like “Black Man Given Worst Job in America.”  Since the economy was collapsing at the time of the election, it looked like a fair assessment.

You can’t say that commuting between the White House and Versailles-in-the-Sky during a time of relative peace and prosperity is a bad gig.  No, the worst job in America in 2017 is to be Trump’s Secretary of State.  You will have to run around the world putting the best face possible on Trump’s militarism and neo-mercantilism, while being undercut repeatedly by contradictory messages from the boss.

Good luck, Mr. Tillerson:  you’re going to need it.  More on his appointment later today.

Trump apparently told Fox News yesterday that he would consider using the One China policy as a bargaining chip in broader negotiations with the Chinese.  This was an incredibly stupid comment, for the following reasons:

1.  It’s offensive, and hardly reassuring, for the Taiwanese to be told they are a bargaining chip in a bigger picture.
2.  The Chinese government doesn’t negotiate over issues of sovereignty.
3.  Telling the world how you plan to negotiate makes it easier for the other side to anticipate your next move.

Trump has actually written books in which he laid out his approach to negotiations.  You can be sure the Chinese have read them, and consequently know not to take his more extreme statements too seriously.  As a result, he may well have to follow through with the madman act in order to get anything accomplished, which is pretty scary.

On paper, the Senate will be one of the biggest roadblocks to the Trump agenda. Here is how it will play out in the real world:

1.  Confirming appointments:  In all likelihood, all of Trump’s cabinet appointments will squeak through, since there is a natural desire to let the President rule through men of his choosing.  The Democrats will have a field day attacking the many fox in the henhouse selections, and a few of the Republicans (McCain, Graham, Paul) will express concerns about Trump’s foreign policy team and their feelings about Putin.  On the whole, however, the storms will blow over.

2.  Ratifying treaties:  There won’t be any.  Trump will rely solely on his executive powers to deal with foreign governments.

3.  Legislation:  Mitch McConnell tends to take the long view, so don’t expect dramatic changes in the filibuster.  Obamacare repeal will turn into a fiasco.  The tax cut will pass through reconciliation, but the GOP won’t have the votes to jam much legislation through the system.  Like Obama, Trump will deal with this issue through executive action, which for some reason will no longer be called “caesarism” by the Republican leadership.

 

They make an odd couple, Donald Trump and Paul Ryan:  the swaggering narcissist with no agenda but his ego and the priggish Eagle Scout who would sell his mother for a huge regressive tax cut.  You have to believe they despise each other.  For now, they will get along, because Ryan has made it clear that he will say and do anything to advance his reverse Robin Hood agenda.  But what happens when it’s done? What will Ryan say then?

My guess is that Trump will deal with this problem by stringing Ryan along on entitlement cuts.  The issue will never come up as long as Ryan still has unfulfilled hopes on Social Security and Medicare “reform.”

I observed months ago that Dick Cheney and Donald Trump were similar in that the lives of both revolved around two things:  making money and kicking butt. Of course,  that would be true of the GOP–the daddy party–as a whole.

The Trump cabinet basically consists of two kinds of people:  generals and billionaires.  QED.

WTF?

Today it’s a wall, but tomorrow a fence.

His method’s to keep us in wide-eyed suspense.

If you’ve figured it out, then you must be in luck.

WTF?

 

A brand new appointment to balance the last.

A picture book future to blot out the past.

A road has been opened, but the bus is still stuck.

WTF?

 

China is up, but next week it’s Taiwan.

The chaos is coming; stability’s gone.

If you don’t understand this, you’re dead as a duck.

WTF?

 

The coaster is rolling; the funhouse awaits.

The world’s not convinced this is making us great.

In my eyes, it’s more like America sucks.

WTF?

 

Questions abound; no one knows what to do.

It’s hard to determine what’s false and what’s true.

Would someone please pull us all out of the muck?

WTF?

 

Anyone who watches “The Voice” on a regular basis knows that, all else being equal, America will vote for a male country singer who looks and sounds like the male country music stereotype.  However, if more than one performer is in the male country “lane,” the votes will be split, and someone else will win.  That is what is going to happen during the finals next week.

The analogy to the GOP primaries in 2012 and 2016 is obvious.  In 2012, Mitt Romney had the “moderate” (what I call the “Romney Coalition”) lane all to himself, and he prevailed.  In 2016, the Bush “shock and awe” fundraising campaign failed to drive out the other contenders in his lane, and Trump won. The electorate didn’t change that much between 2012 and 2016, but their choices did.

Just think:  if either Bush or Rubio had decided to stay out of the race, one of them probably would be the President-Elect today.  Both of them would make lousy Presidents, but at least I wouldn’t wake up in the middle of the night trying to figure out how to create a fallout shelter in a state where you can’t have a basement.

Given his personality and his background in development, it only stands to reason that Trump would support a huuuuuge infrastructure spending program. Since private sector investors obviously will insist on the creation of a substantial revenue stream, however, Trump’s plan to use public/private partnerships in lieu of public money means that either:  (a) there will be no funds to improve public facilities that are in dire condition, but which do not currently generate revenue; or (b) public facilities that are owned by entities other than the federal government–the vast majority of them–will have to be completely or partially privatized.

The latter approach sounds like something that would appeal to a Russian oligarch.  Given Trump’s enthusiasm for Putin and Russia in general, maybe that makes sense.

Most of the attention, of course, will be paid to their views on abortion.  Trump has promised to appoint pro-life justices.  While nothing he says should be taken seriously until he signs on the dotted line, there is no particularly good reason for him to lie about this, so for once, I will take him at his word.

The more interesting question is whether he will nominate judges with strong views supporting federal, and particularly executive, power.  Will he be able to identify people who will give him all the authority that he wants?  Does he even understand that will be an issue?  How will the Republicans in the Senate who have fought Obama so hard on “caesarism” justify changing their positions?  To be honest, I have no answers to these questions at this time, and neither does anyone else.

In the past, I have wondered how our new man on golf cart will react when his plans go awry and times get tough.  What happens when a strong man simply can’t get the job done?

Fortunately, on that subject, he can rely on the example of his buddy Putin and other failed dictators.  The recipe is as follows:

1.  Attack and muzzle the press to the maximum extent possible.  Of course, that is more difficult here than in other countries, but the threat of libel suits, regulatory harassment, and the use of Twitter and internet trolls should do the trick.

2.  Drape yourself in the flag.  Make it clear that your foes aren’t just critics of your administration–they hate America.

3.  Identify the enemies and blame them for your failures.  There are plenty of scapegoats available, both foreign and domestic.  Illegal immigrants, minorities, Mexico, China, whatever–it doesn’t matter, as long as it works.

The best way to combine all of these approaches, of course, is to go to war.  Don’t be surprised if he wags the dog at some point in his term.

I speak of the man they call Mitt.

With Trump he’s not really a fit.

I don’t really know why

He would work for the guy.

Trump will treat him like warmed-over sh__.

Trump’s neo-mercantilist ideas about foreign policy are out of the mainstream, even within the GOP, so it isn’t surprising that he is having trouble finding a suitable Secretary of State.  As far as we know, the leading contenders are:  (a) a nasty old guy with no diplomatic experience or talent, and with lots of conflicts of interest; (b) an otherwise decent guy who knowingly disclosed classified information to a third party, a more serious sin than the one for which Trump repeatedly lashed Hillary Clinton; and (c) another decent guy who called Trump a fraud and a phony during the campaign.

So far, so bad.  May I make a suggestion here:  Ivanka would make a great choice! She’s bright, smooth, and polished, and she has more experience translating and spinning her father’s inanities than anyone in the world.

Seriously–don’t you think she would do a better job than Rudy?

From the perspective of the new Secretary of Education, the GOP’s position on education contains two mutually exclusive threads:  first, to limit the authority of the federal government on lower education to the maximum extent possible; and second, to compel state and local governments to use vouchers and charter schools.  Given the obvious conflict here, and given that the federal government has a very limited role in education even under the best of circumstances, it is unlikely that the Trump Administration will go down in history as having accomplished much in this field,  either for good or for ill.

The more interesting question relates to the cost of higher education.  Clinton and Sanders wanted to throw billions of dollars at the problem to make public education free, at least for most people.  Obama has focused more on making the market accountable and transparent.  What will the proprietor of Trump University have to say about soaring student debt?  My guess is nothing.