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Anyone who has studied Stuart history is familiar with the concept of the court and the country:  the juxtaposition of the allegedly effete, proto-Catholic court of Charles I with the solid, rock-ribbed Protestant squirearchy.  The Paris Commune was crushed by conservative politicians and soldiers from rural areas.  Brexit lost in London, but prevailed outside of the capital.  The current Polish government is completely beholden to its reactionary rural supporters.  And so on.

In other words, the electoral map in this country, which basically consists of islands of intense blue surrounded by oceans of rural red, is a common and natural phenomenon.  Here’s what is unusual about it:

1. The GOP in many respects is an alliance of 19th Century liberalism and largely rural reactionaries.  You don’t really see that in European countries;  the two groups are in separate parties.  In other words, Marine LePen is not a Republican.
2.  Our federal system effectively gives a disproportionate amount of influence to rural areas.   The system is consequently “rigged” in favor of red candidates on a nationwide basis.

I’ve got those dirty, lowdown, war in Ukraine blues.

You have to be aware of it; it’s all over the news.

I tried to make their government a deal it can’t refuse.

So far, it hasn’t worked, and all I’ve got’s this lousy truce.

 

Obama’s crowd is dead to me; I won’t try to pretend.

Things just might be better there;  Trump claims to be my friend.

You know his skin is really thin;  he’s easy to offend.

It’s hard to tell just where this goes and how the story ends.

 

I’ve got the blues.

The low oil price blues.

Denied I did the hacking

For which I’ve been accused.

The times are getting dangerous

As far as I can see.

Sometimes I think I’m winning

But nobody likes me.

Vladimir Putin could undoubtedly annex the portions of Ukraine that are under the military control of his local allies if he chose to do so.  Thus far he hasn’t, for the following reasons:

1.  It would antagonize the West, and could lead to additional sanctions;
2.  He would become politically and financially responsible for the government of the area, which would be unnecessarily risky and expensive; and
3.  His ultimate objective is to make all of Ukraine, not just the eastern portion of it, a Russian vassal state.  Annexing the east would leave a rump Ukrainian state with fewer pro-Russian voters to influence the government; it would also make it more difficult to swap an effective return of east Ukraine to government control for Russian predominance in foreign and economic matters.

Similarly, the Israeli government, in an ideal world (at least in their eyes), would like to annex the West Bank, but has not done so, because:

1. The rest of the world will explode in anger;
2. The Palestinians would undoubtedly fight back; and
3. Annexation would require the government to address the issue of a large, and growing, Palestinian population within a Jewish state.  It has been observed many times that Israel, with the West Bank, can be Jewish or democratic, but not both.  The logic of the situation would result in the creation of a Palestinian “homeland” similar to those created by the white South African government in the 20th Century or ethnic cleansing.  Better to avoid that issue by pretending that the current condition is temporary.

The question for the day is whether the election of Trump changes these calculations at all.  In Putin’s case, he is likely to have a freer hand to deal with Ukraine, but annexation would not help him accomplish his objective, so the answer is almost certainly no.  In the case of the West Bank, you can already see evidence that the Israeli far right is becoming emboldened.  Annexation, with all of its consequences, is by no means out of the question in the foreseeable future.

 

The media star known as Kelly.

She’s well paid to be on the telly.

She’s going to leave Fox

But she’s taking some knocks.

To the right, the move seems kind of smelly.

There were headlines on the web yesterday to the effect that the GOP wants to change welfare to prohibit recipients from buying junk food.  This, of course, on the heels of mandatory drug tests for public assistance.  Businesses getting tax breaks are not subject to this kind of hassle.

The next time you hear a Republican go on and on about how he supports “freedom,” just remember that he means “freedom” for his kind of people–not for the other kind.

There are times when it appears that we are reliving the 1930’s; nationalism, some of it thuggish, is on the march.  You could attribute it to bad economic conditions and the failures of liberal government, but the fact is that things aren’t even close to being as bad as they were in the 1930’s, unless you live in Greece.   Growth in the US, which elected Trump, the Philippines, which elected Duterte, and the UK, which supported Brexit, is actually fairly robust.  The logical question, then, is what is going on here?

I may be old-fashioned, but I can’t help thinking that the current impatience with democratic norms is being driven by two factors:  technology that provides us with instant self-gratification; and a universal comic book culture which leads us to believe that superheroes are there to save us if we can only identify them.  As a result, Trump actually ran his campaign as a Bruce Wayne/Batman kind of figure, and there is plenty of reason to believe that Duterte actually is a vigilante.

This isn’t going to change until the new “superheroes” discredit themselves, and the supporters of liberal democracy work harder to make their case.

Imagine a scenario in which all American consumers, individuals and corporations alike, agreed not to buy any Chinese products for a year.  Since this action was not ratified or mandated by the government in any way, the Chinese did not retaliate against our exports, so we are now running a large trade surplus with China.

What would be the result?  Prices would soar.  Goods for which there is no alternative supplier outside of China would be completely unavailable.  Supply chains would be disrupted.  There would be no new iPhones.  The Fed would raise interest rates to keep prices under control.  The dollar would go up, damaging our ability to export to the rest of the world.  Real estate prices would decline.  We would have a complete nightmare on our hands.

In Trump’s eyes, this scenario constitutes “winning at trade.”

 

On our new man at Commerce named Ross.

He’s got billions, but Trump’s now his boss.

He’ll take on the Chinese

And bring Xi to his knees.

He believes that our gain is their loss.

I predicted months before the election that Trump could win if and only if he and the media persuaded people that Clinton was an equally bad choice.  Under those circumstances, the candidate promising change would have a slight advantage over the status quo candidate.

That is exactly what happened.  Moderate Republican and independent voters with deep concerns about Trump’s qualifications, commitment to democratic norms, and character broke for him late because they viewed Clinton as being equally compromised as a result of the bogus e-mail issue.  For all of the talk about white working class voters, “whitelash,” and the rest, that is what decided the election;  Trump’s “deplorable” core supporters weren’t even close to being sufficiently numerous to put him over the hump.

But Trump can’t run against Clinton anymore.  His approval ratings are pathetic for an incoming President.  No one in the GOP Congress owes him his seat.  The repeal of Obamacare has the potential to turn into a complete fiasco.  The MSM will be hounding him for his mistakes and conflicts of interest without providing the familiar caveat that the other side is equally as bad.  In short, he’s facing a very rocky road, so expect him to look for ways to drive up his ratings in short order.

Let’s just hope that doesn’t include war, but don’t be surprised if it does.

On the Chinese calendar, 2017 is the Year of the Rooster.  In the US, on the other hand, it is much more likely to be the Year of the Chicken, because you can anticipate that the Trump Administration will be playing chicken with its adversaries, real and perceived, around the globe.  The most likely military confrontations will be with North Korea, China, and Iran.

I would bet on North Korea being first on the list, because:  (a) neither sanctions nor incentives has worked to modify the regime’s behavior; (b) there is a worldwide consensus regarding the regime; (c) the clock is ticking on North Korea’s ability to launch a missile that can hit the US; and (d) victory there would strengthen Trump’s hand in the forthcoming confrontation with the Chinese over the trade deficit and the South China Sea.

We’re entering a world the likes of which hasn’t been seen in my lifetime.  We’ll know a lot more about it at this time next year, assuming that we’re all still here to talk about it.

She’s known as the Queen of the May.

Her cynical side’s on display.

She’s backing the Don.

Her attempt’s a bit wan.

But hypocrisy must have its day.

      Good Riddance to 2016

2016 won’t be missed.

For reasons why, a lengthy list.

Ali, Prince, and Bowie died.

Clinton lost; the Trumpster thrives.

 

ISIS killers took their toll.

The Broncos won the Super Bowl.

Climate change was heating up.

For once, we won the Ryder Cup.

 

Carnage in the Middle East.

We were not involved, at least.

Putin’s loose; that’s nothing new.

Turkey’s got a tyrant, too.

 

Brexit passed, but Renzi lost.

Europeans count the costs.

Thousands of new refugees.

Our leaders flail; the day not seized.

 

Obama leaves, and Trump will rule.

Who knew our voters were such fools?

A trade, or just a shooting war?

It’s certain life won’t be a bore.

 

2016 won’t be missed.

It’s hard to be an optimist.

We’ll soldier on; we have no choice.

Perhaps the truth will find its voice.

There was a column in the NYT a few days ago in which Ross Douthat suggested that the potential outcomes of the Trump Administration could be put on a graph, with the x-axis running from orthodox GOP positions to extreme populism, and the y-axis running from chaos to grim authoritarianism.  The concept reminded me of my proposed graphic on foreign policy (x-axis values/interests/; y-axis active/passive), so I naturally found the concept intriguing.

Just for grins, I worked out the most extreme cases on the Douthat matrix.  The quintessential authoritarian/populist would be Hitler.  Mussolini would be a populist/chaos figure.  Franco would be authoritarian/orthodox.  There are plenty of examples of failed right-wing dictators who were chaos/orthodox;  the most obvious one today would be Sisi.  No wonder Douthat hopes that Trump will wind up somewhere close to the middle of the graph.

For all of my initial enthusiasm for the matrix, I ultimately concluded that it wouldn’t work properly, even though the x-axis makes perfect sense.  The problem with the y-axis is that Trump isn’t likely to be either/or;  in the real world, you are likely to see both chaos in the decisionmaking process and periodic, but somewhat random, measures of authoritarianism in response to public reactions to his inevitable failures.  As time goes on, he may become more systematically authoritarian, but for now, his limited attention span and lack of policy agenda will prevent that from occurring.

It has long been a joke among Israeli politicians that they gladly accept American money and support, while ignoring our advice.  Bibi Netanyahu has taken this approach to a new level, however;  he clearly believes that he has a right, not merely to take our support for granted, but to tell our government what to do. That is why I invariably wind up shouting at the TV set any time he makes an appearance.

Even Putin doesn’t think he has a right to boss us around.  Coldly screw us over, yes, but not tell us what to do.

And so, there can be no doubt that Bibi has earned his award.  He’ll find it difficult to keep it, however;  Trump will be President in three weeks.

In the long run, will Trump find this kind of hauteur acceptable?  Only time will tell.

Donald Trump is working late in Versailles-in-the-Sky when he is suddenly felled by a great flash of light.  He starts to pick himself up.

God:  You may rise.

DT:  Who the hell are you?

God:  God, of course.  Who else could do that to you?

DT:  Around here, I’m the only god.

God:  I’m afraid you were wrong about that.  Do you know why I’m here?

DT:  Is this about the bathroom thing?  I’m going to fix that when I take office, you know.

God:  I’m here to tell you that you’re my instrument.

DT:  No, you’re my instrument.  I couldn’t have done it without all those evangelicals.

God:  Don’t  be impertinent.  Can you guess why I chose you?

DT:   Beats me.

God:  I’ve picked you to scourge America.

DT:  So the  evangelicals were right!  It is all about gay marriage!

God:  No, it’s about humility and tolerance.  You’re going to show them the errors of their ways.

DT:  How?

God:  Do you ever listen to yourself talk?

DT:  You must be one of those people who takes me literally, but not seriously.

God:  Where I come from, not being taken literally is called lying.  It violates a commandment.

DT:  You didn’t have to run for your job.

God:  You have a point there, although you were a liar long before you ran for office.

DT:  Can I ask you a question?

God:  I suppose so.

DT:  Will I go to heaven?

God:  Of course not.  You don’t believe anything I ever said.

DT:  But I’ve heard you’ll let anyone in, and the place is going to hell in a hand basket.  I can fix that and make heaven great again!

God:  That’s exactly why you can’t get in.  Anything else?

DT:  Is heaven as beautiful as Trump Tower?

God:  Are you kidding?  I have good taste.

DT:  But look at all the gold in here!

God:  You’re already in hell.  You just don’t know  it.