There was a column in the NYT a few days ago in which Ross Douthat suggested that the potential outcomes of the Trump Administration could be put on a graph, with the x-axis running from orthodox GOP positions to extreme populism, and the y-axis running from chaos to grim authoritarianism. The concept reminded me of my proposed graphic on foreign policy (x-axis values/interests/; y-axis active/passive), so I naturally found the concept intriguing.
Just for grins, I worked out the most extreme cases on the Douthat matrix. The quintessential authoritarian/populist would be Hitler. Mussolini would be a populist/chaos figure. Franco would be authoritarian/orthodox. There are plenty of examples of failed right-wing dictators who were chaos/orthodox; the most obvious one today would be Sisi. No wonder Douthat hopes that Trump will wind up somewhere close to the middle of the graph.
For all of my initial enthusiasm for the matrix, I ultimately concluded that it wouldn’t work properly, even though the x-axis makes perfect sense. The problem with the y-axis is that Trump isn’t likely to be either/or; in the real world, you are likely to see both chaos in the decisionmaking process and periodic, but somewhat random, measures of authoritarianism in response to public reactions to his inevitable failures. As time goes on, he may become more systematically authoritarian, but for now, his limited attention span and lack of policy agenda will prevent that from occurring.