Members of the right frequently accuse Biden of having no coherent plan for victory in Ukraine. Is the criticism fair?
No. It is quite clear that Biden defines “victory” as the survival of Ukraine as a viable state; this does not require the retaking of all, or even much, of the land currently possessed by the Russians. The problem is that the Ukrainian government at this point is still demanding the return of the invaded territory, and Biden is not going to force them to accept less ambitious objectives against their will. As a result, he has to continue to talk about a Ukrainian “victory” even though his actions indicate that he doesn’t believe in the Ukrainian version of it.
I think the failures of the past year are starting to make an impression on the Ukrainians. If Biden wins the election, Putin will know that he can’t swallow all of Ukraine, as well. The possibility of a peace of exhaustion could, therefore, re-emerge after November. That’s the realistic end game here–the Korean solution.