Most of the speculation about GOP candidates in 2028 has revolved around J.D. and Marco Rubio. To the extent that any outsiders have been mentioned, the usual suspect is Ted Cruz. What about DeSantis? Will Ron run?
From his perspective, there are pros and cons. On the con side, he probably fears provoking Trump again, and he knows he can’t beat J.D. if the current administration is viewed as a success by the electorate. He is also, as he has pointed out, young enough to wait until 2032. On the other hand, as I’ve noted in many previous posts, there are plenty of opportunities for DeSantis to peel base voters away from J.D on issues such as Iran, AI, and “heritage Americans,” so there is a path to victory if Trump is viewed as a failure in 2028. In addition, by 2032, DeSantis will have been out of office for six years, and unlike Trump, he doesn’t have the ability to command the public’s attention on social media. He will be yesterday’s man. His time will have come and gone.
On balance, I think DeSantis will avoid making commitments to either enter or stay out of the race until the last minute. He has already run for president before, so he can probably mobilize a base of donors on short notice. If he thinks J.D. is vulnerable, he will run regardless of what Trump says and does. If not, he will stay out and root silently for a blue team victory in 2028.