Michael Whatley is off the air in North Carolina. His laser focus on crime didn’t pay, to the relief of those of us who despised his nasty commercials. Cooper is going to win the vacant seat here fairly easily, as I predicted months ago.
That leaves eight competitive races, which is an exceptional number, based on recent history: Maine; Michigan; New Hampshire; Ohio; Alaska; Texas; Kansas; and Iowa. The Democrats need to hold Michigan (with a poor candidate) and New Hampshire (with a strong Republican challenger) and split the rest to gain control of the Senate. Can they do it?
It will be a coin flip. A 50-50 split is a real possibility, which would mean J.D. will have to spend precious campaign time running the Senate in 2028. It couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
The interesting development here is the movement away from the GOP in the Midwest. The farmers–at least some of them–have finally figured out that Trump’s wars and tariffs are bad for their business, and that culture war victories don’t pay the rent. Does that mean we are seeing a significant shift which could give the left more of a chance to win the Senate in the future? I doubt it, but TBD.