Based on the figures for the trade deficit and manufacturing employment, it simply doesn’t exist. Yes, the new tariff regime has only been in place for a little over a year, but we should have seen some favorable evidence by now. Is this due to flawed execution or an impractical objective?
Both, of course. The chaotic rollout of the program and the constant arbitrary changes to it on the fly–after all, proving Trump is the boss of the world is more important than the fate of American workers–obviously didn’t help. But the truth is that Trump is swimming against the tide of history by putting so many eggs in the manufacturing basket. Technological change is working against him. Even the Chinese will acknowledge that.
Using industrial policy in a few key economic sectors makes sense for national security reasons. Going beyond that is wasteful and inefficient.