Cromwell

This blog had its origins in a Lyle Lovett song.

I was watching an episode of Elvis Costello’s “Spectacle” on DVD one day, when Lovett sang a song about a guy who is watching TV and sees either a news story or a commercial (I don’t remember that detail) showing our armed forces in combat.  The guy’s reaction is to hope he was worth fighting for today.

I was taken aback by that; it was a way of thinking that had never occurred to me before, and I decided to apply it to my own life.  I fairly quickly concluded that I didn’t have the background, ability, or personality to do social work in any form, but that I could make a somewhat equivalent contribution to the world by coming up with at least one valuable original thought each day.  This blog is my primary vehicle for that purpose; as a result, all of the material that has been posted to date has been original, and I post every day, except when I’m on vacation or have computer problems.

With that in mind:

1.  I don’t have a lot of money invested in this endeavor (it is never intended to be a business), and my technical expertise with computers and software is minimal.  If there are issues loading or reading the blog at times, that is the reason.
2.  I’m perfectly willing to provide space on the blog for opinions from others in the interests of creating a useful dialogue so long as it meets my standards for quality.  I don’t have to agree with the opinion to make it valuable.
3.  I’m also willing to write for other blogs, or to write on particular topics, on  request.
4.  Anyone wishing to reach me directly can do so at Mattuhle@aol.com.
5.  I’m not on social media.
6.  Thanks to everyone who has written a supportive comment since I began in July.

1.  Fundraising:  The Clintons and the DNC operate a well-oiled machine.  Trump doesn’t, and his efforts to collaborate with big donors and the RNC will cut the legs out of his argument regarding his independence from the donor class.  In any event, many of the most important GOP donors won’t have anything to do with him.  Advantage:  Clinton.
2. Conventions:  Trump’s experience with reality TV will help him here. Expectations for his speech will be so low in the MSM that it is virtually guaranteed that he will get a favorable review.  The Democratic Convention will probably be a fairly traditional, staid event.  Advantage:  Trump.  Expect him to get a large bounce.
3. Attack Ads:  Beating the drum with worn-out material about Monica and Benghazi isn’t likely to move the needle very far.  Most Americans have not been exposed to Trump’s past beyond “The Apprentice,” and it is unlikely they will appreciate what they see.  Advantage:  Clinton.
4. The Debates:  Clinton is an experienced debater with a firm grasp of the facts.  Trump is good at making outrageous comments and insulting his opponents.  That may work in the primaries, but probably not here.  Advantage:  Clinton.
5.  World Events:  This is the big wild card.  Suppose we have a big terrorist attack between now and November.  Will the public respond to Trump’s belligerence, or prefer to rely on Clinton’s experience?  It’s hard to tell.  Advantage:  ????

Let’s just hope he doesn’t win in November.

At one point during my vacation last week, we heard Peter Gabriel’s “Big Time” on the car radio.  My immediate reaction was that it was a great subject for a song parody, but when I thought about it a little more, I concluded that the song was an almost perfect description of Trump just as it was.  There was very little I could do to make it more relevant.  If you listen to it sometime, you’ll see what I mean.

The Stones have apparently told Trump to stop using “Start Me Up” at his rallies.  If I were Gabriel, I would offer up “Big Time” as a replacement.

There was been much discussion recently about how the Democrats should view what Ross Douthat cleverly referred to as the “Trumpenproletariat.”  From a practical perspective, any attempt to reach out to Reactionary working class white men results in a much larger loss of minority voters during the primaries. In the final analysis, that is the reason the Sanders Revolution had no chance.

Will it ever be possible for the Democrats to win the allegiance of these Reactionaries without losing their core supporters–in other words, to make the Democratic Party a class-based party, rather than a coalition of victims?  Maybe, but not for the foreseeable future.

There once was a woman named Hill.

The Bern keeps on fighting her still.

She’s already won

But he claims he’s not done.

It just means we’ve more time to kill.

 

The GOP nominee Don.

The prize is now his, fairly won.

He’ll go to the ‘land.

We won’t give a hand

To foes of whom we’re none too fond.

The new President of the Philippines, by all accounts, is a tough-talking nationalist with a dubious record on human rights, an attitude about Americans, and a plan to make amazing deals with the Chinese.  The analogy to Trump is obvious.  How do we deal with this situation?

Roll with it.  Our interests in the Philippines and the South China Sea are in peace, stability, and the freedom of navigation, not in containing Chinese expansion for its own sake.  If Duterte can lower the temperature in the area by accommodating the Chinese in a way that his countrymen can tolerate, so much the better for us; we have no good reason to press an aggressively anti-Chinese agenda on anyone in this area.  If not, which seems more likely, he knows where to find us.

His reaction perfectly encapsulates the reasons why we can’t possibly elect him in November. It is inappropriate for the US, or any other government, to express opinions about the cause in public until the investigation is at least reasonably complete.  For all we know, it could be a pilot suicide situation.

Just because we won’t have the excitement of a contested convention doesn’t mean there won’t be any drama.  Here are some of the questions to be answered in Cleveland in July:

1.  Who will appear with Trump on the podium?  This decision is going to be excruciating for Trump’s opponents, and it will be based primarily on self-interest, although there will be a moral dimension for some of them, as well.  On the one hand, for, say, Cruz and Rubio to refuse to join in a gesture of party unity will offend millions of Trump supporters and the GOP brass, will cast them into the wilderness in the event he wins, and will expose them to future allegations that their failure to support the ticket cost Trump the election.  On the other hand, appearing with Trump after making pointed statements about his unfitness to be President will make them look weak and hypocritical, and will forever make them accomplices in Trump’s obnoxious nativist agenda.   My guess is that tribalism will ultimately prevail.

2.  Will we see major battles over the platform?  There will be some of that, but I don’t think Trump really cares about the platform:  after all, his personal awesomeness is his platform.   He will simply ignore anything the party says that is inconsistent with his message.

3.  Who will be his VP?  I have written about this on previous occasions.  He needs an establishment figure with executive experience who can run the country while he is off making his amazing deals.

4.  How will Trump’s reality TV experience impact the convention’s production values?  Trump thinks conventions are boring.  Count on him to do everything he can to turn the show into “Celebrity Presidential Apprentice.”

5.  Will there be violence in the streets in Cleveland?  Since the outcome of the convention is already known, the danger of this is limited to the usual class of Trump protesters.  I don’t think it will be a big story.

6.  Will we have a reprise of Clint Eastwood and his chair?  No.

 

 

Trump is the closest thing to a pure Reactionary candidate we have seen in my lifetime, although his position on tax cuts for the wealthy and deregulation is PBP-friendly, and his interest in social issues is glaringly muted.  How will the different factions respond to him as the nominee?

1.  The Conservative Libertarians are a relatively principled group who will have enormous problems with a number of Trump’s positions.  Many of them will vote for Gary Johnson.
2.  The Reactionaries are, of course, a solid block for Trump.  A few religious conservatives will be appalled by him and will stay home in November.
3.  Most PBPs will support him.  Some women who are turned off by his attitudes towards women will vote for Clinton, as will a handful of businessmen with strong vested interests in free trade.
4.  Most of the Christian Democrats will vote for Clinton.  Some of them will leave the party permanently.  The few that stay and support Trump will do so primarily based on his opposition to abortion.

The Trump campaign is based on two essentially contradictory propositions:

1. I can get things done because I am a dealmaker with few ideological interests other than in making America rich and powerful again; and
2. I am a strong man who kicks the butt of America’s enemies, both foreign and domestic, without making any apologies.   A true strong man, of course, doesn’t have to make deals; he simply imposes his will on his adversaries.

The issues that has been raised by many commentators is whether Trump can pivot to the center in a manner similar to his GOP predecessors in order to win uncommitted moderate voters.  The reality is that the situation is more complicated than that;  the more precise question is whether Trump will emphasize the dealmaker or the butt-kicker from here on in.

Here are my predictions:

1.  The emphasis in the general election campaign will be on Don the Dealmaker.  He is a harder target for Hillary than Don the Wallbuilder.
2.  Expect to see some evolution (or, if you prefer, flip-flopping) on issues like the minimum wage and huge tax cuts for the wealthy.
3. He won’t disown his previous comments on illegal immigrants and the wall, but he will spend less time on these issues.
4. Since social conservatives have nowhere else to go, he will present himself as a moderate on issues such as LGBT rights and abortion.

In short, you won’t see a “pivot” so much as a change of emphasis to the black box who operates outside of party and gets things done.

Last week’s cover of The Economist featured a cartoon of Donald Trump as a circus performer riding a fairly surly-looking  (GOP) elephant.  Given that Ringling Brothers just retired their performing elephants, the cartoon seems unusually appropriate.

There once was a Donald named Trump.

His poll numbers were in a slump.

He says he’ll beat Hill

But I don’t think he will.

She’ll give his backside a good thump.

I had some technical problems posting while I was on vacation, but now I’m back.  I will be focusing on the conventions and the general election this week, but I thought it would be appropriate to start by reviewing my predictions for the primaries and drawing any necessary conclusions.

I was right about the Democrats.  In spite of all of the furor about Sanders, I said from the beginning to the end that he had no effective route to the nomination, and he didn’t.  The only remaining question is whether his ideas will continue to influence the party through the convention, the general election, and thereafter. My guess is that he will have less influence on the Democrats as they move ahead than you might be tempted to think, as much of his support is simply a negative reaction among some voting groups to Hillary’s “corruption,” but, of course, that remains to be seen.

My record on the GOP was mixed.  I was right to ignore the Carson and Fiorina boomlets, and all of my scenarios had either Trump or Cruz, the last two standing, ultimately prevailing, which isn’t bad.  On the other hand, I did say Cruz would win, and that was obviously a mistake.  I made two significant miscalculations about the process:

1.  I thought Cruz would win the Deep South and carry that momentum to the nomination.  His social conservatism seemed to be a great fit for the South, but it proved to be no match for Trump’s nationalism and bigotry.  We learned quite a lot about the priorities of a large number of Reactionaries along the way.

2.  I thought Rubio, not Kasich, would be a factor in the race through the primaries in the Northeast.    I don’t think anyone could have predicted that Marco would have fallen so far, so fast.

The general election will be a completely different animal.  Much more on that later in the week.