Fundraising: The Clintons and the DNC operate a well-oiled machine. Trump doesn’t, and his efforts to collaborate with big donors and the RNC will cut the legs out of his argument regarding his independence from the donor class. In any event, many of the most important GOP donors won’t have anything to do with him. Advantage: Clinton.
Conventions: Trump’s experience with reality TV will help him here. Expectations for his speech will be so low in the MSM that it is virtually guaranteed that he will get a favorable review. The Democratic Convention will probably be a fairly traditional, staid event. Advantage: Trump. Expect him to get a large bounce.
Attack Ads: Beating the drum with worn-out material about Monica and Benghazi isn’t likely to move the needle very far. Most Americans have not been exposed to Trump’s past beyond “The Apprentice,” and it is unlikely they will appreciate what they see. Advantage: Clinton.
The Debates: Clinton is an experienced debater with a firm grasp of the facts. Trump is good at making outrageous comments and insulting his opponents. That may work in the primaries, but probably not here. Advantage: Clinton.
World Events: This is the big wild card. Suppose we have a big terrorist attack between now and November. Will the public respond to Trump’s belligerence, or prefer to rely on Clinton’s experience? It’s hard to tell. Advantage: ????