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The Lebanese government is basically a joke. The Lebanese military is little better. The international peacekeeping force has never done anything meaningful to separate Hezbollah from the Israelis. As a result, you can certainly understand why the Israeli government has shown minimal interest in an international solution to the Hezbollah problem.

But what are the better alternatives? Israel’s attempt to create a proxy force in the border areas was a failure and would be no more successful today. That leaves two options: an indefinite occupation at a time when the country’s resources are already being stretched in Gaza; or a withdrawal after a short period of time that results in Hezbollah, weakened but not destroyed, returning to the border area with thousands of rockets and the will to use them.

In short, if the objective of the Hezbollah campaign is to provide permanent security for the residents of Israel, it will almost certainly fail. The Israelis are much better at tactics than they are at strategy.

Within weeks of taking office, Trump had implemented several of his key policy objectives through executive action. Relying on existing (if dubious) statutory authority, he imposed a large universal tariff on all imported goods and a massive one on Chinese products; he cut off all aid to Ukraine; and he diverted a significant part of the defense budget to his new deportation scheme, which included the construction of vast migrant camps in Texas. The base rejoiced, but moderate voters who had supported him in the belief that he would just bring back the 2019 economy were appalled. Deliberate acts of cruelty, the illegal use of funds, large price increases, and deference to dictators wasn’t what they voted for! Trump’s favorability ratings, never high, plummeted.

A federal court in the Ninth Circuit issued an injunction prohibiting the most extreme deportation measures. In addition, there were mass demonstrations in major urban areas all over the country. Trump responded to the national expressions of disapproval by threatening to use all of the resources of the federal government to punish his most vocal critics. He ignored the injunction and continued with the deportation plan. He also promised to use the Insurrection Act to shoot demonstrators.

The march to fascism had begun. It was going to be a long four years.

Harris hasn’t done much to put distance between herself and Biden on the Gaza issue. As a result, I’m reading plenty about how the disgruntled Arab-Americans in Michigan will refuse to vote for her. What is going on here?

I think the Harris campaign has decided that the votes of Liz Cheney Republicans are more important to her campaign on a national basis than the “uncommitted” votes in Michigan. She is gambling that the latter group will ultimately come around purely as a result of Trump’s awfulness. Let’s hope she’s right.

Unlike Biden in the final stages of the 2020 campaign, Kamala Harris has no great vision to improve the country. She has no plans to dramatically expand the safety net or to replace the dollar store economy with something more equitable. Even if she did, it wouldn’t happen; the lack of a majority in the Senate, the filibuster, and the Supreme Court would be insurmountable obstacles. A vote for Harris, therefore, is effectively a vote for the status quo.

Trump will similarly be frustrated by the lack of a real working majority in either the House or the Senate. For him, however, the inability to legislate–except on tax issues, on which he will undoubtedly defer to PBPs in Congress–is not really a problem. His tariffs and his deportation regime–his two significant policy initiatives– will be based, however unlawfully, on existing statutes, not any new ones.

In the end, therefore, Biden’s theory of the case was correct. This election is really about whether Trump can seize control of what he calls the “deep state” and use it to punish his political, cultural, and intellectual enemies in violation of constitutional norms. Nothing more or less is at stake here.

One of the mixed blessings I get from having a variety of TV sports subscriptions is the ability to watch political ads from all over the country. You might be surprised by how similar they are: Mr. Democrat voted for transgender rights and to defund the police; Mr. Republican is an extremist on abortion rights. The candidates are fungible; the song remains the same.

The most memorable commercial I’ve seen was a Gallego ad from Arizona. In the ad, a guy talking about Kari Lake says, “She’s not conservative–she’s nuts!”

Exactly. If only the Harris ads were that punchy.

On the Russian dictator named Putin.

For his dear old friend Don he was rootin’.

And why would he not?

Trump would help him a lot.

On that point, there can be no disputin’.

This was hardly our first hurricane: we lived through Charley and Wilma; we evacuated during Irma but struggled through its aftermath; and we had to reconstruct our home after Ian. In one respect, however, this was the worst one; we had no information about anything that was going on in the world except what we could see for ourselves and what we heard from neighbors. That has never happened in Florida.

At least it is mostly over for us, because we live closer to the top of the mountain than the bottom. If you own property near a river, your ordeal is just beginning.

A note to my readers: Helene delayed but did not cancel a proposed vacation. Regular posts will resume around 10/12.

It appears at this point that Biden has persuaded the Israelis to limit themselves to a relatively minor ground invasion and no permanent occupation. There is some justified concern about mission creep, but the Israelis are looking for a short-term fix, not a chimerical complete and final victory over Hezbollah.

In other words, Israel is cutting the grass in Lebanon, just as it did in Gaza before October 7. In this case, for the reasons I set out in a previous post, it makes sense.

When asked about the Harris Helene commercial, a Trump spokesman stated: “There were no hurricanes during the Trump presidency, but lots of them under Biden. Why? Because, like wars, hurricanes gravitate towards wokeness and weakness. Donald Trump is a strong man. Hurricanes wouldn’t dare to mess with him.”

Victims of Hurricanes Maria and Harvey could not be reached for comment.

A potential Harris commercial in North Carolina–a swing state– would juxtapose shots of Helene damage with Trump throwing paper towels to people in Puerto Rico. A commentator would say something to the effect that Trump believes climate change is a Chinese hoax and that storm victims are acceptable collateral damage in an economy dominated by fossil fuels.

It’s the kind of hard shot the Democrats haven’t even really tried to land on climate change during the last three elections. They should, and it might work.

Imagine that you are Xi Jinping, and you are watching the American election with great, if somewhat morbid, interest. Which candidate do you view as the lesser of two evils?

Harris is the more predictable choice. She will continue to promote Biden’s policy of flexible containment. She will also keep imposing restrictions on the use of American and European technology. It is unlikely, however, that she will propose any sort of new universal tariffs on Chinese goods. In the short run, she is the more comfortable choice.

Trump will inflict immediate pain on your economy with his tariffs. He will, however, alienate America’s allies, which will be of great assistance to you in the longer run. He may also be amenable to a lopsided deal on managed trade or even Taiwan. Is that possibility worth the short-term pain?

You have little ability to influence the outcome of the election, so in all likelihood, you just sit back and deal with the consequences. Que sera, sera.

In the 1790s, a British delegation led by Lord Macartney came to China with a collection of newfangled manufactured goods and asked the Qianlong Emperor for the right to trade. The emperor airily dismissed the request on the basis that China was completely self-sufficient and had no need of any British goods. The British ultimately found a commodity that the Chinese people could not resist–opium–and things went downhill from there.

Like his imperial predecessor, Xi Jinping wants China to be self-sufficient. He is determined to avoid becoming dependent on American tech, and he has taken significant steps both to promote Chinese energy production and to protect the sea lanes for oil tankers. Finally, he wants American and European businesses and consumers to be so dependent on the Chinese market and goods that they won’t dare challenge China in its sphere of influence. It is an area in which he has had considerable success, particularly with the Germans.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. It is truer of China than most places.

If you watch the Trump commercials carefully, you will note that he never talks about his tariffs or even his tax cuts; he simply compares selected parts of his record to Biden’s and concludes that America trusts him on the economy. When you think about it a bit more, blind faith in the man on golf cart is at the heart of his pitch to the public.

Sure, Trump is unconventional. He can be a little rough with his mouth. He’s divisive, he breaks traditional rules, and he constantly says things that your experience tells you aren’t true. His view of the world doesn’t in the least match up with what you see in your everyday life. But it all works out in the end somehow, because Trump is a magic man. Trust him. Trust him.

Or, to put it another way, Trump works in mysterious ways. It isn’t for you to question him–just follow him, and you’ll be OK.

He believed very firmly that hard work and adherence to traditional values made his country great. Strengthening the welfare state was a mistake, even if it would reduce poverty and insecurity, because it would encourage laziness and mediocrity. He would not tolerate a “hammock of dependency” in his country.

Is it Xi or Paul Ryan? You decide.

The conventional wisdom (but not mine) is that Israel is escalating the air campaign in Lebanon in the hope that Hezbollah will back down. If so, it isn’t working. Hezbollah is continuing to fire missiles at Israel, but in proportion to the intensity of the air campaign; its leaders insist it will not stop until there is a cease-fire in Gaza. If nothing changes, therefore, the Israelis must either admit their effort to prevent missile attacks is a failure or begin a major ground offensive.

If the latter, what then? Lebanon isn’t Gaza, where Hamas can only hide in the civilian population or go underground; if the Israelis take Hezbollah’s initial positions, the fighters can simply retreat to the north or even into Syria. Some of their missiles, in all likelihood, can still hit Israel from there. Then what? Are the Israelis going to occupy most of Lebanon, and even some of Syria? And this, with the Gaza campaign still going on?

The Israelis tried occupying parts of Lebanon in the 1980s and 1990s. In the end, it didn’t work. Why would the result be any different this time?