For many years, the default position on Social Security within the GOP was to support cuts, but to force the Democrats to share the blame for them. The relative growth of the Reactionary faction within the party may make that position untenable in 2028, however. How will the candidates react?
Donald Trump managed to avoid this divisive issue by ignoring it and kicking the can down the road. With the cliff coming in 2032, according to the most recent estimates, J.D. won’t have that luxury. My guess is that he will either call for a bipartisan commission to solve the problem without taking any positions on either increased taxes or cuts, thereby showing a complete lack of leadership, or to call for huge cuts elsewhere in the safety net in order to fill in the funding hole. Since the GOP has already savaged safety net programs in the BBB, the second approach may not be as popular as it would have been in the past.
There is an opening here for an economic populist to call for increased taxes on the affluent to fill in the gap. This could cost J.D. the support of a large portion of the base. Will someone like Josh Hawley, or even Ron DeSantis, take it? TBD.