On Trump and Assad’s Chemical Attack

So Trump claims that he’s appalled by the latest Syrian atrocity, and he intends to do something about it, but he won’t tell us what his plan is.

Right.  Just like his secret plan for defeating IS.

My guess is that he will either: (a) do nothing; or (b) try to use the incident as some sort of leverage with Putin and the Syrian regime to get something he wants.  More likely, the latter.

The Chinese Marxist Paradox

The Chinese leadership is clearly determined to keep dangerous western ideas such as universal human rights under strict control.  The problem, of course, is that Marxism-Leninism, the ostensible ideological basis for the regime, is itself a western idea.

How can this contradiction be resolved?  Perhaps the Chinese can discover that Marx and Lenin had Chinese ancestors.  Why not?  They claim golf was invented in China, too.

Maybe Marx and Lenin were Chinese in a previous life.  That would count.

The Red/Blue/Gray Paradox

Democrats fight to protect the entitlements of the elderly, and Republican generally want to cut them, but the elderly vote predominantly for Republicans. How can this be explained?

As a group, the elderly tend to be more socially conservative than the rest of society, and so gravitate towards the GOP’s message of protecting Christians and the white patriarchy.  By and large, in spite of plenty of evidence to the contrary, they do not appear to believe that Republicans will actually vote to cut their entitlements  when push comes to shove;  perhaps they believe they have too much clout for that to occur.

Their faith will be tested during the next four years.  True, Trump has promised not to cut Social Security and Medicare, and his first “budget” was consistent with that commitment.  He is surrounded by people who feel otherwise, however. Social Security and Medicare “reform” probably won’t occur during the next four years, but you would be foolish to take that to the bank.

Sucking Up to Sisi

Obama acknowledged the need to cooperate with Sisi against terrorists, but he kept him at arm’s length, for two reasons:  first, due to human rights concerns; and second, because we don’t want to be associated too closely with Sisi if and when he fails.  Trump has no such qualms.  To Trump, the Middle East is a simple place:  the problems are instability and terrorism; the good guys are strong men; and the bad guys are anyone who wants to change the status quo.

Leaving aside the message this sends about American values, the fact of the matter is that blindly supporting strong men isn’t going to work.  What happens if there is a real revolution in Egypt?  Are we going to send American troops to shoot at the crowds in order to keep Sisi in power?  Are we going to call on the Russians to help us?

American public opinion would react violently to that scenario, but, if Trump has the courage of his convictions, it could happen.

 

The Polish Populist Paradox

The current Polish government–reactionary, nationalist, ruthless, and paranoid–is the ideological soul mate of the Trump Administration.  And yet, the Poles view Trump with a large degree of trepidation.  Why?

Simply put, Trump was elected to make America, not Poland, great again.  He would have no qualms whatsoever about cutting a deal with Putin to the great disadvantage of the Poles if it served narrow American interests, as he defines them.

Therein lies the contradiction between the nationalist and the internationalist strains of Bannonite thought.  You can’t rely on a coalition of right-wing nationalists in different countries to work together in a clash of civilizations with Islamic extremists, because, by definition, they’re all out to screw each other for the benefit of their own country.

On Trump and Le Pen

It was always clear that Trump was going to cast a long shadow over the French election.  The question was whether he would help or hurt Le Pen.  We know the answer now.

The French were never likely just to fall in line with American populism, but Trump’s bumbling provides another reason to support the establishment.  Le Pen apparently has stopped talking about him.  She has good reason.

The Paralysis Paradox

After their crushing defeat in 2008, the GOP leadership met to discuss where they went from there.  The question posed was “What is the proper role of a minority party?”  The correct answer was “To help the American people at a time of crisis,” but that clearly never occurred to Mitch McConnell.  Instead, the response was to obstruct the Obama Administration in every possible way in the hope of discrediting activist government and becoming the majority party.

The GOP consistently engaged in kamikaze tactics to prove that Obama and the Democrats couldn’t get anything done.  While these tactics endangered the nation and richly deserved the scorn they received from the establishment, they ultimately succeeded;  Republicans control the presidency and both houses of Congress today.  The ultimate outcome, however, was not exactly what they expected.

Paralysis during the Obama Administration was supposed to lead to a GOP president determined to shrink the size of government.  Instead, it created the demand for a man on horseback, who is currently being thwarted by the same people who threw bombs during the Obama years.  How ’bout them apples!

 

On the GOP and Two Quotes from Sports Figures

The Christian Democrat pundits are wringing their hands about Trumpism in general and the vacuity of ACHA in particular.  ACHA, in their eyes, validates all of the old, false liberal cliches about the Party of Lincoln wanting to redistribute wealth from the poor to the wealthy and from minorities to white people.  As Mark Jackson, an ESPN basketball commentator might say, “C’mon GOP!  You’re better than that!”

Or not.  Bill Parcells is famous for saying “You are what your record says you are.”  The record shows that the mainstream of the GOP consists of small government fanatics, climate change deniers, self-interested businessmen, and reactionaries whose principal mission in life is to return political, social, and economic power to the white Christian patriarchy.  Can you point to any action taken by the GOP, not just in this administration, but in the past 8 years, that disproves this statement?  Didn’t think so.

The Mexican Paradox

One of the chief advantages the US has possessed as a competitor with China is relatively small and friendly neighbors.  Of course, Trump is doing his best to change that.

Trump is determined to change the terms of trade with Mexico in a way that will enrich the US and impoverish the Mexicans.  If you want to encourage illegal immigration, that’s a great way to do it.

And so, the plan on one hand is to spend untold billions building a wall, and to provide additional incentives for illegal immigrants on the other.  That’s making America great again?

Trade Wars: Two Scenarios

  1.  The Trump Administration spews a lot of hot air about trade deficits and terrible trade deals, but, in practice, limits itself to the enforcement of existing agreements and the very public lobbying of American businesses.  In the process, we alienate the rest of the world and forfeit our ability to lead, but we don’t do any lasting harm to the world economy.
  2.  The trade war actually becomes a reality as Trump rips up NAFTA and the WTO in a completely fruitless effort to eliminate deficits.  Markets tank all over the world.

So which will it be?  As of today, the smart money would be on #1, but it’s early.

Paradox Week: The Wall

According to an NYT article a few months back, in order to keep the wall affordable, it will have to be constructed with Mexican materials and labor.

And so, to keep illegal immigrants out and make America great, we’re going to pay Mexico to build the wall.

Who’s the April fool here?

Sweating the Small Stuff

It has been widely reported that Trump, in response to policy concerns expressed by members of the Freedom Caucus, told them not to worry about “little sh__” and to focus on the big picture.  It is safe to assume that the big picture is Trump’s image as the supreme maker of deals and his approval ratings.

That is the problem with Trump in a nutshell.  He doesn’t care about the American people and whether they can afford health insurance.  He doesn’t even care about his own party.  The only thing that motivates him is the desire to be viewed as “the man.”

FTT #25

To the NYT:  Stop calling me an erratic autocrat, or I’ll change the libel laws and really kick your butt!

FTT #24

Crooked New York Times keeps portraying me as a narcissistic, ignorant, bumbling autocrat.  I’m not an autocrat.  Sad!

On Trump’s Unconventional Conventional Foreign Policy

One of the principal questions about the new administration is whether its foreign policy would be completely unconventional, or conventional in an erratic, blustery, and militaristic way.  It’s early days, but thus far, the answer mostly is (b), except that Trump appears to want the worst of all possible worlds by alienating our allies and undermining confidence in our willingness to lead.

Perhaps we will learn more after the Xi visit.  Hope he likes to play golf.