Author: hamilton1788

War supporters acknowledge that things could go seriously wrong. Their argument essentially is that the status quo also had risks, and that the war at least creates hope for a better future.

But hope, as the saying goes, is not a strategy, and it is perfectly possible that the regime could have evolved into something more acceptable in the face of regime division and public pressure after the natural death of the Supreme Leader. If you respond by saying that is also a strategy based on hope, I would note that it at least doesn’t require a war.

No one outside of Iran—and not many there—is going to miss Ayatollah Khamenei. Nevertheless, the war is controversial for the following reasons:

1. Neither historical precedents nor common sense suggest that a meaningful regime change is possible without a ground assault and an occupation.

2. If, somehow, meaningful regime change does occur, there is no guarantee that it will improve conditions for the Iranian people or the rest of the world.

3. Since there was no imminent danger from Iran, and the cost of the war is likely to be significant, the Constitution demands that it be authorized by Congress. The war is just another power grab by an authoritarian who wants to show the world that he is the boss.

And the case for the war? For that, see my next post.

The Supreme Leader got the rousing sendoff he so desperately wanted yesterday. To live to his late eighties and to be a martyr! It doesn’t get any better than that.

Khamenei was an obstacle to a peaceful and prosperous Iran for decades. He oppressed his people, not out of spite or personal ambition, but because he thought it was God’s will. Now that he is out of the way, can we expect improvement?

Probably not. My hope was that he would die quietly in his bed as soon as possible, and that an open succession crisis splitting the elite would ensue. That is unlikely under the current conditions. The elite will probably rally around a hardliner, and nothing will change.

Biden let Bibi pull his chain, but he never agreed to cut the grass in Iran for him. I believed that Trump’s vanity and desire to be the boss would lead to the same result, but I was wrong. We are now engaged in what is likely to be a fruitless effort to change the Iranian regime from the air for no obvious benefit to the US. Trump is now Bibi’s yard guy.

Now, the question is, what happens if there is no regime change? Do we launch the kind of ground war that Trump really hates? Do we make a deal and pretend we won? Or do we use nukes?

Don’t write off the last scenario.

We’re two months into 2026, but many of the car commercials are advertising 2025 models. The ads which do feature 2026 cars either focus on leases with low monthly payments or emphasize dealer discounts without disclosing the sales price.

What does this mean? That the car manufacturers are still trying to protect us from the impacts of tariffs, and when they can no longer do so, they are trying to hide those impacts.

This situation cannot go on forever. It is not sustainable in the long run. That means inflation driven by tariffs will be more prolonged than Trump’s supporters think.

A note to my Pakistani friends—I told you to be careful what you ask for. Are you still celebrating the American evacuation?

Here is just a partial list of the issues that will be created by AI;

1. Will it turn America into a surveillance state?

2. Will it lead to an arms race we could very well lose?

3. Will it create more or fewer food jobs than it destroys?

4. Will it lead to a vast increase in inequality?

5. Will it increase the power of fraudsters and scammers?

6. Is it ultimately compatible with liberal democracy?

7. Will we become so dependent on it that we lose our ability to think?

8. Will it become our master rather than our servant?

And you wonder why Americans are not embracing it with any enthusiasm.

William McKinley was dragged into a war over Cuba on false pretenses in 1898. McKinley is Trump’s role model; could he follow him on an unnecessary imperialist Cuba war as well as on tariffs?

There are a lot of unanswered questions about the speedboat episode at this point, but my best guess is that a group of exiles is trying to get ahead of Trump on this issue. We need an investigation by a genuinely independent fact-finder to determine the truth before any further action is taken. The problem here is that, while the Cuban regime’s account is plausible, no one in this country is going to accept it without further examination, and anyone in America who is tied to Trump or the exiles is going to have a clear agenda to escalate tensions.

Fortunately, Trump is busy with Iran right now. Even he can only fight one war at a time.

AI will benefit the elderly in two important ways: by increasing the value of their shares through productivity improvements and larger profits; and by creating new methods of care in response to labor shortages. For Gen Z, on the other hand, AI mostly offers an end to entry-level jobs.

The generational issue will be peripheral to the 2026 campaign, but it will figure prominently in 2028.

He ranted, exaggerated, and lied. He told immigrants and Democrats to get off his lawn. He wrapped himself in the flag. He set a new record for the longest SOTU in history. That was the end of the superlatives, unless boredom counts.

Yes, instead of justifying war with Iran or proposing any new measures to help Americans, Trump is doubling down. Don’t tell me you’re surprised.

Lindsey Graham is back in the Oval Office just before the SOTU.

G: So what can we expect from the speech this year?

T: The usual. It will be a list of all of my wins over the last year. It will be a long speech.

G: Are you sure that’s a good idea after you lost the tariff case?

T: I won the tariff case, Linseed. I always win, because I’m a winner. You forget that sometimes.

G: True. Remind me—how did you win the case?

T: The Court gave me lots of options for new tariffs. We’re already working on them.

G: What about the refunds?

T: Forget it. Not happening.

G: What are you going to say about the economy? The numbers look just like Biden’s in 2024.

T: Not even close. We have the greatest economy in history.

G: The numbers don’t support that.

T: You must be watching the fake news again. America is great again, and things will only get better. There will be an AI model with my name on it. It will change the game completely.

G: What about affordability? The Democrats are beating us upon that one.

T: More fake news. I’ve already solved it. And the big news is that the market’s way up. Investors love me. That’s what really matters.

G: Not to people who don’t own stock. What will you say about Iran? Are we going to war?

T: Maybe. We’ll see. You never know. (Graham leaves)

Do you think it is odd that Trump is contemplating war when the Iranians have done nothing to provoke him other than to kill their own people? Consider the other possible motivations for an attack:

1. Think I’m a loser after the tariff decision? Nothing says winner like the US military doing your bidding.

2. The politics of this are great—just like the Olympics. Most of the country rallies around me, and I get to call the rest traitors.

3. Those stupid Norwegians won’t give me a Nobel Peace Prize. In your face, guys!

4. It will be easy! Just like Venezuela. Trust me. Trust me.

Trump is apparently considering a sustained campaign of air strikes against Iran. If the objective of the campaign is to degrade the Iranian nuclear program, that contradicts his claim that the program was obliterated last year. If the point is to reduce the number of Iranian missiles, new ones can be built, so we would only be cutting the grass for the benefit of the Israelis. If the real objective is to facilitate regime change, there is no reason to believe that can be done purely from the air; in addition, since the regime has regained control of the streets, the attack will come too late. Finally, the American public wants no part of another war, and Trump has done nothing to prepare us for it.

What could go wrong?

Canada is a predominantly blue country. It only has three reliably red provinces. As a result, if Trump’s fantasy about incorporating it into the US ever became reality, the Democrats would be in a much stronger position to hold the House, and might even hold the balance of power in the Senate.

That would serve him right, no?

Thanks mostly to some outstanding goaltending, we won the gold medal hockey game over a clearly superior Canadian team. Trump will probably celebrate by talking trash on Lying Psycho and imposing new tariffs.

But look on the bright side, my Canadian friends; at least you still have a team. According to Trump, the Chinese will take the game away from you if you side with them against him.