I predicted a decade ago that Trump’s ultimate objective with China was a managed trade agreement. The rumors floating around suggest that I was right; Trump wants a deal that looks similar to the ones he has with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, with commitments for investment and a fixed number for tariffs. It could happen, if not right away; the Chinese typically don’t move that fast.
The premise behind this kind of agreement is that China is not fundamentally different from the EU, Japan, and South Korea; it is simply bigger and slightly more troublesome. Not everyone in the Trump orbit agrees with that conclusion. No less a luminary than Oren Cass has argued that the Chinese present a unique problem, and that permitting vast Chinese investments in America would be a huge mistake.
For once, Cass is right. In ideological and geopolitical terms, China is qualitatively different than the rest of America’s trading partners. It cannot be treated as just another country that wants to rip us off.