I have no reason to doubt that Tillerson is a really bright guy, and the fact that James Baker and Bob Gates vouch for him is at least somewhat reassuring. I can’t remember another Secretary of State whose background was limited to business, however. In conventional terms, this is a very unusual appointment.
From Trump’s perspective, however, it makes perfect sense; Tillerson can help him renegotiate all of those terrible trade deals. If he follows through with the expected Bolton appointment, his diplomatic and national security team will be a perfect mirror of his personality and ideology: mercantilist; swaggering; militaristic; black and white; and obsessed with Islamic terrorists.
I will be very surprised if we aren’t at war with someone in 2017. The only question is who; that is TBD.