For a large part of the second half of the nineteenth century, the Irish Home Rule Party held the balance of power in Parliament between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The Liberal Party ultimately embraced their cause, partly out of electoral self-interest, but mostly out of Gladstone’s convictions. It was a long and winding road from there, but the ultimate outcome was the Irish Republic.
On its face, the Arab parties similarly hold the balance of power after this week’s Israeli election. The problem is that the center-right opposition coalition (there is no longer a meaningful left in Israel) appears to be unwilling to bring them into a new government. If that eventually proves to be the case, there is no hope for any significant change in Israeli foreign policy for the foreseeable future; the best-case scenario is that the extreme right-wing nationalist parties are removed from power, the assaults on liberal democracy come to an end, the religious right loses some of its privileges, and the Palestinians on the West Bank receive slightly better treatment. That’s not nothing, but it’s not enough.