It occurred to me this morning that the vast majority of Republicans in the Senate are going to vote for BCRA for the same reason British soldiers obeyed orders to attack in 1916; the fear of letting down your people, and facing humiliation for it, is greater than the fear of death.
I predicted weeks ago that McConnell will get exactly 50 votes, and I’m sticking with that. If he does, Trump will prance and preen and call himself a “winner.” Will the public agree? I don’t think so, because:
1. The base isn’t in love with this legislation. BCRA is the illegitimate child of Obamacare, not its annihilation.
2. There are no real winners from BCRA. Even the rich don’t get their big tax cut. Millions of people lose their insurance in order to reduce the deficit slightly. The public regains its “freedom” to buy worthless “insurance,” a right it values about as much as its “freedom” to starve or be homeless. Whoo-hoo!
3. It’s a victory for McConnell, not Trump. Only the truly uninformed will believe that the credit for getting 50 votes belongs to Trump. The job will have been done by peer pressure and legislative bribes.