Trump has chosen to support the interests of the tech barons over the fears of his base. The barons, led by Musk, have responded by pouring huge sums of money into GOP PACs. What does that mean for the future? Will the barons start pulling away from Trump and Vance if the pendulum is clearly swinging the other way, or will they double down on the GOP and just hope that a combination of improving conditions and an avalanche of campaign ads will carry the day in 2028?
I will make two predictions. First, the barons who are openly contemptuous of liberal democracy are likely to stay the course, while the others will begin to pull away. Musk, for example, is too openly committed to his extreme right-wing views to hedge his bets. Second, J.D. will be vulnerable to a right-wing populist in the primaries and a left-wing populist in the general election if he makes the same choice as Trump. That will mean big trouble for tech in the foreseeable future.