Month: September 2015

The candidates named Ted and Mike

Make statements that centrists don’t like.

Their views are extreme

They’re as bad as they seem

They make you stand up and say “yikes!”

To their proposed wars with the Supreme Court and Iran, America politely says “No thanks.”

It wasn’t supposed to be this way.

Jeb! clearly agonized over his decision to run, because he knew that everything about his candidacy would infuriate the Reactionaries, and he would pay a heavy price for it.  In the long run, however, he believed that his establishment connections would make him the undisputed leader of the Romney Coalition, and that the GOP was insufficiently suicidal to nominate a Reactionary.   He would, therefore, lose some battles along the way, but he would win the war, just as Romney did, and the Reactionaries would fall in line in order to defeat Hillary.

Two things have happened to upset these calculations:

1.  Rubio decided to run, and has made a surprisingly strong showing during the debates.  This means that Jeb!’s control of the Romney factions is very much in doubt.  Furthermore, he has few effective lines of attack against his former little buddy other than lack of executive experience.  Rubio’s great weakness in this process is his apostacy on immigration, but Jeb! is in no position to talk about that.
2. Trump is destroying him during the debates.  Every time I see the two of them together, I am reminded of the scene in “The Last Emperor” in which the eunuchs are forced to leave the Forbidden City carrying their testicles in boxes.   He doesn’t look like a winner, and PBPs have no time for losers (they are pragmatists, after all).

If Jeb! were any other candidate, his donors would already be scurrying off to Rubio, and the chasm of irrelevance would loom ahead.  Since he already has a huge amount of money in the bank, however, he can go on indefinitely.

As I see it, his options are as follows:

1.  He can accept that Rubio is a better candidate and quit.  Given his pedigree and financial resources, that won’t happen.
2. He can focus his attention and resources on destroying Trump.  Since Trump’s supporters won’t make him their second choice, this approach won’t help him get the nomination, but it would do wonders for his self-esteem.
3. He can start running lots of Rubio 3 AM phone call commercials and argue far more forcefully against Trump that he is the only qualified and electable candidate in the race.  In my opinion, that is his only realistic path left to the nomination.

The bottom line is that Rubio and Trump are to his campaign what Assad and ISIS are to American policy in Syria–the trick is to avoid helping one by destroying the other.  Can he thread the needle?  Based on what we have seen so far, you would have to say no.

Trump promises to make America great again.  My question is, when does he believe America was last great?

Was it:

During the George W. Bush administration?  Considering his opposition to the Iraq war and the presence of Jeb! in the race, certainly not.

During the Clinton administration?  You can make a really good argument that the late 1990’s were a golden age for our country.  The Soviet Union had imploded, China was not yet a problem, the Middle East was reasonably quiet, and the economy was growing very rapidly.  At the time, however, everyone was fixated on the scandal du jour and missed the big picture.  In any event, it would hardly do for Trump to say that America was last great when the husband of the likely Democratic nominee was president.

During the George H.W. Bush administration?  More problems with Jeb!’s candidacy, plus a big recession and “read my lips.”  No chance.

During the Reagan administration?  Trump doesn’t talk about Reagan as much as, say, Ted Cruz, but that would be my guess.  If so, America has been less than great for at least the last 27 years.  Where has he been all this time?  Why did he wait so long to save us from mediocrity?

Mourning the loss of Yogi Berra, an American treasure.

Pope Francis is, or at least should be, the intellectual leader of the Christian Democratic faction of the GOP.   Will they listen to him on issues like climate change and immigration?   Probably not, for two reasons:

1. The handful of CDs in Congress have a reasonable and legitimate difference of opinion with him about the merits of democratic capitalism; and
2. The CDs are a tiny minority within the GOP.  As a result, they are so accustomed to making deals with the other factions, they are barely even aware of it when they sell out.

I was preparing a post for today on the Evil Eagle Scout’s propensity for inept pandering to the various GOP factions (to be entitled “Why Scott Walker is a Wimp”) when he decided to ride his Harley into the sunset, to the dismay of none but the Koch brothers.

My initial assessment of his candidacy was that he was a one-trick pony with no charisma.  The initial Iowa polling made me question my judgment temporarily, but it ultimately proved to be correct.   Making union-bashing the focal point of his campaign, when the GOP needs plenty of union member votes to win, never made any sense.

He now assumes the 2012 role of Tim Pawlenty–the blandly obnoxious governor whose campaign peaked way too early and ended before the primaries began.   So long, Scott.  You won’t be missed.

 

The idea that a winning GOP coalition could be constructed from Conservative Libertarians and disaffected Independents and Democrats was never very plausible.  When issues involving surveillance were center stage in 2014, however, it appeared that, just perhaps, Rand Paul’s moment had finally come.  Then IS started beheading people, the GOP returned to its roots as the party that kicks butt overseas, and the dream faded away.

Paul is stuck in his father’s electoral ghetto.  His ceiling is around 10 percent, and my guess is that he knows it.  His campaign will be about gaining converts, not winning.

 

The longsuffering people of Greece

Thought austerity would finally cease.

But cutting their debt

Left the Germans upset

So their taxes and fees still increase.

Meet the new boss.

Same as the old boss.

They didn’t want to miss a new episode of “Empire.”

A comparison of the two:

Francis       v.        Xi

Leader of > 1 Billion         Yes                  Yes

Selected in Secret              Yes                  Yes

Corruption Fighter            Yes                  Yes

Critical of West                   Yes                  Yes

Universal Values                Yes                   Only on Paper

And the winner is. . .Francis, who actually believes in the universal values he espouses.  Chinese exceptionalism isn’t a big seller here.

 

 

1.  Why did you think it was OK to lie about the contents of the Planned Parenthood videos?
2.  You obviously support a large increase in the defense budget even though the US spends more for defense than the next five countries combined.  Where will you find the money for this increase?
3.  Since there is no chance that the US will invade Russia, and Putin knows that, how exactly would building up our forces along the Russian border change Russian behavior in Syria?
4.  How do you propose to deal with the issues of wage stagnation and inequality?  Do you even view these as issues?

And, of course, the most important:

5.  Given your checkered past as a CEO, and given further that you have no experience in government (to use your own language, losing a Senate race is an “activity,” not an “accomplishment”), why would anyone think you are qualified to be President of the United States?

We may be stupid, but we’re strong.

I know, I know:  you want to fire them all today.  Unfortunately, the system doesn’t work that way.  You have to let the process play itself out.

Here are my predictions:

1.  Tier One:  Candidates relegated to the JV debates:  You’re already fired.

2.  Tier Two:

a.  Mike Huckabee:  No money, very restricted message, no hope.  Hits the

bricks after he loses in Iowa.

b.  Chris Christie:  Cashes in his chips after losing in New Hampshire.

       c.  John Kasich:   Occupies roughly the same ideological space as Jeb!, but

has no money.  Exits gracefully after losing in New Hampshire.

3.  Tier Three:

a.  Scott Walker:    Evil Eagle Scout departs to a chorus of indifference

after a poor showing on Super Tuesday.

b.  Ben Carson:   Also gets the boot after Super Tuesday.

c.  Carly Fiorina:   Becomes a prime contender for VP after Super Tuesday.

4.  The Finalists:

a.  Jeb Bush:  Has enough money to overcome losses in early primaries.

Knows how to run a nationwide campaign.   Calendar becomes more

favorable after Super Tuesday.

b.  Donald Trump:  Numbers will erode over time, but has too much

money and ego to quit.

c.  Marco Rubio:  Has enough money and support to fight to the end.

d.  Ted Cruz:  Ditto.

e.  Rand Paul:  His father kept going under similar circumstances, so

why wouldn’t he?  Has Conservative Libertarian space all to himself.

And the winner is. . . It’s too early to tell.

 

 

Will the Fed raise interest rates?

The country’s not doing that great.

Wages are low

And growth is still slow

Stop them before it’s too late.