God’s Grifter

According to the NYT, a prominent member of the Christian right has advised his compatriots that Trump has found Christ.  He warned, however, that Trump was a “baby Christian” in need of intensive pastoral care, and that slip-ups could be expected.

Obviously, this is a perfect deal for Trump.  He gets to spout out the redemption narrative if he so chooses without changing his actual behavior, since he will be perpetually viewed as a flawed work in progress.  The students of Trump University drove a harder bargain than that.

The record shows that Trump has rejected Christian ethics all of his life, and recognizes no power higher than his own personal awesomeness.  The only way he would truly embrace Christianity as if it recognized him as a god.  You could call it the Holy Quadrilateral:  the Father, the Son, the Holy Spirit, and the Donald!

Rubio Redux

Marco’s greatest legislative accomplishment was the Senate’s approval of an immigration reform bill supported by a genuinely bipartisan “gang” of whom he was a prominent member.  When it became clear that the bill could not be sold to extreme right-wingers in the House and the country as a whole, he repudiated it, even though, as the child of an immigrant, it was an issue that presumably had some resonance for him.

When Marco ran for President, he (correctly) noted that Donald Trump was completely unqualified, by both experience and temperament, for the job. About two months after he dropped out of the race, he endorsed Trump and offered to speak for him at the Republican Convention.

Marco clearly disliked the Senate, made a point of not being there, and stated repeatedly that he had no interest in running for re-election.  About a week ago, he changed his mind, for stated reasons that, on their face, made no sense.

In short, Rubio has shown that he will sell out his ideas, his country, and his party for his own ambition.  Caveat emptor.

Bernie After Philly

It’s the day after the convention.  Where does Sanders go from here?

Broadly speaking, he has the following three choices:

1.  Sulk in his tent.  If he’s secretly rooting for a Trump victory in the hope that it will expedite the “revolution,” that is the logical course of action. Otherwise, it will damage his reputation and cost the Democrats dearly.

2. Campaign vigorously against Trump, without saying much about Clinton.  No elaboration necessary.

3.  Campaign against Trump, and for his vision of the Democratic Party.   Basically, this requires him to accept a Clinton presidency as a practical first step in the “revolution.”  In the long run, he has to persuade the American people as a whole, not just a relative handful of left-wing activists and Clinton-haters, if the “revolution” is to occur.  The polls I have seen strongly suggest that the “revolution” is not very popular in the nation as a whole, so I would recommend this approach over the other two.

A Saturday Brexit Limerick

As we bid the EU our goodbye

We’re taking some time to say why.

While it’s been a nice trip

We prefer fish and chips

High tea, and big gray English skies.

A Limerick After Brexit

So now we confront the day after.

For the EU, the vote’s a disaster.

The market’s way down.

Trump sounds like a clown.

From Russia and France I hear laughter.

Winners and Losers from Brexit

Brexit was truly an event with world-wide consequences.  Here is my analysis:

Winners:

1.  Boris Johnson:  His chances of becoming the next Prime Minister just rose substantially, although it is far from a sure thing.

2.  Nicola Sturgeon:  The second referendum on Scottish independence is now inevitable, and this time, it will probably pass.

3.  Vladimir Putin:  Maintaining a united European front against Russian aggression will become more difficult.

4.  Marine LePen:  The French only support the EU when it acts as their poodle.  Today, it’s a German Shepherd.  Frexit will be on the table in 2017.

5.  Hillary Clinton:  The reactions of the markets to Brexit are a cautionary tale for a Trump victory in November.  I will have more on this when my Trump moratorium expires next week.

6.  Your UK vacation:  It just got a lot cheaper.

 

Losers:

1.  The UK:  Your country just got a lot poorer, less powerful, and less stable.  Scottish independence is on the way.

2.  David Cameron:  He put his party before his country by promising the referendum and paid the price for it.

3.  George Osborne:  He was once almost assured to be Cameron’s successor, but now that is up in the air.

4.  The Conservative Party:  The divisions and wounds will be difficult to heal.

5.  Angela Merkel:  Without clear vision and strong leadership, the EU will devolve into a bickering, protectionist mess.  Losing the UK won’t help.

6.  Expats:  No elaboration necessary.

7.  Your 401(k):  Look at what the markets are doing this morning.

 

 

On the House Sit-In

It was a childish piece of political theater suitable for a banana republic.  The Democrats are supposed to be running as the party of responsible adults; how, exactly, did this help?

Brexit and the British Blue/Red Divide

Historically, moving people and goods by water has been much faster than by land, which leads to a bit of a paradox:  coastal areas of island nations tend to be very cosmopolitan, while more remote areas can be very insular.

The Brexit vote will probably reflect that fact.  I expect the Greater London area to go heavily for Remain and the hinterlands for Leave.  For an American, this sounds a great deal like the familiar red state/blue state dichotomy, and some of the arguments made by the proponents of Leave could come from the mouth of Donald Trump.

The UK, the US, and the world all have plenty riding on the outcome of today’s vote.  I will post my reactions tomorrow.

On the Underlying Principles of the Democratic and GOP Health Care Plans

Democrats view health care in the following ways:

1.  Health care is a right, not a privilege.  For both moral and economic reasons, coverage should be universal.

2.  The market in health care, due in part to its unusual flaws, will never provide coverage that is either cost-effective or universal.  Part of this, of course, is due to the normal workings of the market, which doesn’t provide every poor person with a Lexus, either.  However, the health care market is unique in that:  it is frequently dominated by local monopolies, at least for hospitals;  there is a profound imbalance of knowledge between producers and consumers; and consumers of health care services typically are in no condition to bargain on price.

3.  Poor health is frequently the result of bad luck, not bad choices.  Random events and genetics play a huge role here.  Society has an obligation to step in to assist the unfortunate.

4.  Political action is needed to overcome the flaws in the market and keep prices down.  The best way to deal with market failure is to create consumer cartels.  Where that isn’t possible, for political reasons, redistribute wealth through regulation (e.g., community rating), taxing, and spending in order to provide universal coverage, or something as close to it as possible.

The GOP responds as follows:

1.  While we begrudgingly accept that some minimal level of health care is a right, mostly it is a consumer good just like any other.  Logically, the GOP should support the abolition of Medicare and Medicaid and the elimination of the legal requirement that ERs provide care to those who can’t pay, but that is politically unpalatable, so they instead propose “premium support” in lieu of Medicare and a rollback of Medicaid.

2.  The market is the best mechanism to hold down health care costs.   If you compare the American system to any European country, or even Medicare to private insurance, you will find it difficult to accept this proposition.  Experience makes it clear that, if Medicare is deprived of its monopoly, costs will escalate dramatically, and either the taxpayers or consumers (more likely the latter) will be left holding the bag.

3.  Poor health is the usually the result of poor lifestyle choices.  Why should I subsidize your bad choices?  That makes sense, except that it ignores the role of random events, the genetic lottery, and age.

4. All redistributions of wealth are inefficient and immoral.  This is the principal evil of Obamacare, and must be eliminated.  To the extent that political reality has to be accommodated, they would do it in the least intrusive way possible: hence, equal tax credits for the rich and poor instead of subsidies, and the watering down of community rating, which is essentially a subsidy from the young and healthy to the old, poor, and unhealthy.

Comparing the House Republican plan to ACA, therefore, you wind up with a system that is friendlier to providers, the wealthy, and healthy young people who don’t want to buy insurance.  The cost of insurance for older people and people with pre-existing conditions would skyrocket, and millions of poor people would lose their coverage altogether.

Brexit and the Competing Visions of England

To a proponent of Leave, Brexit is intended to recreate a highly cleaned up version of Victorian England–a green and pleasant land filled with sheep, stone churches, thriving high streets, and picturesque villages.  In the eyes of these people, a vote for Remain will result in a nightmare version of the status quo:  a land overrun by immigrants, some of them terrorists, run in the interests of vampire squid London bankers and grasping Brussels bureaucrats.

To a Remain supporter, the defeat of Brexit means that England will continue on its current path to become a wealthy, dynamic, cosmopolitan, multi-cultural nation.  If Brexit passes, England will decay into a stodgy, dull, and less prosperous monoculture–think of a more secular version of the Republic of Ireland in the middle of the 20th Century.

The Leave vision is easier to sell and grasp, particularly for the elderly and people living outside of the Greater London area.  I suspect that is why Brexit could pass in spite of the fact that there is no reasonable economic case for it.

A Beatles Song Reimagined for Mitch McConnell

  The Fool on the Hill

Day after day

Up high on the Hill

The man with the hound dog face

Keeps the Senate perfectly still.

Obama doesn’t seem to like him.

The feeling is mutual, too.

And he never holds a hearing.

 

But the fool on the Hill

Sees that Trump is a clown

And he’s left now to hope

The GOP won’t go down.

 

Well on the way

Disaster is near

The man with the owlish eyes

Is filled with partisan fear.

But Cleveland is fast approaching

And there’s nothing that he can do.

He doesn’t have an answer.

 

But the fool on the Hill

Sees that Trump is a clown

And he’s left now to hope

The GOP won’t go down.

 

Parody of “The Fool on the Hill” by Lennon/McCartney.

Limericks on Super Sports Sunday

The longstanding bridesmaid named Dustin.

300 yard drives he was bustin’.

He finally made putts

And showed plenty of guts.

Our views of him need some adjustin’.

 

So let us all praise LeBron James.

And bow upon hearing his name.

By force of his will

The Cavs climbed a steep hill

And earned him his hard-gotten fame.