Cromwell

My reactions to yesterday’s spectacle:

1. Like many right-wing talk show hosts, Trump only really sounds authentic when he’s angry.  When he tries to talk about unity and healing, it looks like an act.
2. Does anyone really doubt that he is capable of pressing the button just because he’s pissed off at someone?
3. Does Kelly still believe that he can bring order to an administration run by the Wizard of Id?
4. While there is undoubtedly an element of calculation to Trump’s embrace of the far right, yesterday made it clear that there is a genuine emotional connection, as well.  Of course, that won’t prevent him from screwing them over in the name of “winning,” as he showed during the Obamacare repeal fiasco.

If Trump thinks his public image is bad now, wait until the refugees from his administration start writing books about their experience!  The government is going to look even more comically chaotic than it appears to be today, which is saying something.

I’ve got those dirty, lowdown, right-of-center blues.

You have to be aware of it; it’s in the Breitbart News.

The globalists are here to stay; it looks like I’m just through.

I wonder if my fans were right; I got completely screwed.

 

I tried to give a real voice to people on the right.

But Kelly and his friends prevailed and kept me out of sight.

I’m trying to regain Trump’s ear–to help him see the light.

But sometimes when I look around, it seems I’ve lost the fight.

 

I’ve got the blues.

The McMaster blues.

I don’t like where I’m going

‘Cause I think I’m going to lose.

My Breitbart friends are there with me.

I’d rather not give up.

But winning is a fleeting thing.

The state is so corrupt.

 

So now, it seems, his friends are comparing him to Thomas More.  That’s even funnier than the Cromwell analogy.

Maduro, of course, is completely clueless when it comes to fixing the problems with Venezuela’s economy.  His response to the crisis has been to amass as much power as possible for himself, which, if successful, will only mean that he has no one else to blame for his policy failures.

Fortunately for him, he has Donald Trump on his side.  Trump’s absurd comment about a military intervention in Venezuela: (a) made all of Maduro’s domestic opposition look like a bunch of imperialist stooges; (b) embarrassed all of the South American leaders who are essentially on our side in this dispute; and (c) left everyone with the (probably correct) impression that Trump sees the rest of the Western Hemisphere the same way that Putin sees Ukraine.

More work for the State Department clean-up crew!  Those guys must be really tired by now.

Trump critics were told over and over again during the campaign that we took him “literally but not seriously.”  By that, his apologists meant that his campaign rhetoric should be taken as metaphor for the grievances expressed by the members of his base, not as actual policy prescriptions.

The wall is a great example of that.  Surveys done during the campaign indicated that Trump supporters did not really believe he could force Mexico to pay for it. Promises about the wall were simply viewed as expressions of solidarity with those who felt that outsiders–Mexicans, Muslims, African-Americans, whatever–were ruining our country.

The irony is that it is clear now that Trump actually feels bound by the campaign promise even though his supporters won’t hold him to it.  It can’t get much more ludicrous than that.

Donald Trump is famously a member of the school of negotiators who likes to start by putting maximum demands on the table.  When you add that to his repeated insistence that all previous administrations had consistently made terrible deals, it was clear that he was going to threaten nuclear war.  I predicted it months ago, and it has now come to pass.

Even discussing the nuclear option has been taboo until now.  It creates the following problems:

1. If you put using nukes on the table and draw a red line, you are running the risk that someone will assume you are bluffing (and you probably are).  Then what? If the threat isn’t real, it can be safely ignored.  That means it has to be used to remain credible.
2. If we can put nukes on the table, so can the Russians, Chinese, Indians, and Pakistanis–and they will.  Sooner or later, someone is going to follow through with the threat, and the entire world will have to live with the results.

I’ve previously commented on the impact of the iPhone on American politics. The latest issue of The Atlantic contains an article which shows that, since the release of the iPhone, American teenagers drive less, drink less, hang out less, take fewer drugs, and, yes, have significantly less sex.  They also kill themselves at higher rates.

And so, it turns out that all those arguments about abstinence and sex education were a waste of time–you just have to buy your teenager a smartphone and watch it work its magic.  They probably learn all they need to know from the phone, anyway.

The Chinese were humiliated by the destruction of their North Korean sort-of ally, so the world held its breath and waited to see what would happen next.  It did not have to wait very long.

A few days after the end of the war, the PLA poured over the border in spite of the dangerous levels of radiation that still existed all over the country.  China essentially took over the governance of what was left of North Korea.  The US and the South Koreans, not wishing to provoke the Chinese further, and happy to be free of clean-up duty, did not object strenuously.  North Korea became a Chinese vassal state.

Violent anti-American protests broke out all over the world.  Seeking to drive a deeper wedge between the US and its erstwhile allies, the Chinese drafted a UN resolution condemning the American military action and imposing sanctions. Russia voted for it, and it had a majority, including several traditional American friends, but it was vetoed.

At home, things were very different.  The GOP, once badly divided, united behind Trump and his war.  Trump demanded emergency powers to silence the “treasonous” opposition to the war.  The outcome of those debates was not known at the time this was published, but there was serious talk of a parade and a Trump Monument.

It looks like Trump thinks he has the power to bring McConnell into the Oval Office and fire him, just as he would fire a contestant on “The Apprentice.”  Alas! Our system doesn’t exactly work that way.

It’s not easy to make a sympathetic figure out of McConnell, but that’s the way this is heading.

Donald Trump told us repeatedly during the campaign that he planned to be as unpredictable as possible.  Hey, it worked for him in business, and it works for Putin, so why not?

North Korea is why not.  Imagine that you are Kim Jong-un, and you have just heard the “fire and fury” speech.  What do you make of it?  Do you completely blow it off as an obvious bluff, and continue with your missile program?  Do you take it seriously, and start preparing in earnest for a nuclear war?  Or do you assume that Trump isn’t really in charge, and listen only to Mattis, Tillerson, and McMaster?

It’s hard to know the correct answer to that question, and a miscalculation here could result in an absolute calamity for the entire world.

Don’t say I didn’t tell you so.

All About The Base

(Chorus)

Because you know I’m all about the base

‘Bout the base, no liberal.

I’m all about the base, ’bout the base, no liberal.

I’m all about the base, ’bout the base, no liberal.

I’m all about the base, ’bout the base.

 

Yeah, it’s pretty clear, I only love the right.

The left can just go stick it where it never sees the light.

‘Cause I won the election, and their lady lost.

Bitter though they may still be, I’ve become the boss.

The mainstream media all despise me

But you know that crap ain’t real.

 

I’ll win in 2020, just you see.

If you want to take me on, I’ll be here.

And my base will stand there with me.

They’ll be loyal, have no fear.

 

Yeah, my daddy always told me to kick the world’s butt.

He told me just ignore it when they tell you you’re a nut.

You know I’m not a puppet, establishment guy.

So if that’s what you’re into

Then go eat ___ and die.

 

(Chorus)

Parody of “All About That Bass” by Meghan Trainor.

All of the factions except the CDs (who detest Trump, and are effectively part of the opposition) are represented in the current administration, which is one of the reasons it lacks a consistent sense of direction.  Here is the breakdown:

1.  The most prominent Reactionaries are Bannon and Sessions.  DeVos, Carson, and Perry would probably fall into this category, too.

2.  All of the billionaires surrounding Trump are, as you would expect, PBPs.  That includes Kushner, Tillerson, and all of the members of his economic team.

3.  Mulvaney is the most important CL.

Does Trump have the political skills to keep this group operating as a unified whole?  Of course not.

 

Like Trump, PBPs are naturally transactional;  their opinion of him will depend, not on red meat or his Twitter account, but on whether he delivers the goods.  In their case, “the goods” means deregulation and tax cuts for businesses.

While Trump and the GOP Congress have sent the right message on deregulation, the chaos surrounding the administration is a clear source of concern, and the failure of Obamacare repeal doesn’t bode well for tax reform.   To make a long story short, the PBPs will swallow a large dose of corruption and incompetence as long as Trump makes them money, but if he doesn’t, unlike his Reactionary base, they’ll jump ship.

You probably thought that one minor silver lining inherent in the GOP victory in 2016 was an end to debt ceiling crises.  But noooooooo!

I’m not sure how this is going to turn out, but here are the key questions:

1.  Can Paul Ryan maintain control of the Freedom Caucus?  Probably not. Boehner couldn’t, and the FC is even hungrier for a victory after the Obamacare repeal debacle.

2.  Can Nancy Pelosi deliver enough votes for a clean increase?  Yes.  She has always come through when it mattered most, and a debt ceiling debacle would damage the Democrats’ brand as the responsible party.

3.  Can Mulvaney be trusted?  He’s saying the right things at the moment, but his heart isn’t in a clean increase.  Given the degree of dysfunction in the administration, one can easily imagine him playing both sides of the street.

4.  What will Trump do?  This is, of course, the most important question.  It is clear to me that there are two keys to persuading him to do what you want:  be the last person to speak to him; and have a plausible argument that your position constitutes “winning.”  Let’s hope the few adults in the administration can convince him that damaging the country’s credit and hurting the economy is not a “win.”  Am I sure that will happen?  No.

You probably remember the scene in “The Godfather” in which Vito Corleone and the rest of the mob leaders meet to work out an acceptable truce in the ongoing war.  Trump would probably view this as a template for his brand of politics:  strong men (i.e., “winners”) ruthlessly pursuing their own interests by cutting favorable deals, with very little concern about the impacts to the public at large.

Unfortunately for him, the American political system doesn’t work that way.  The Russian system, on the other hand, does.  Hence at least part of his enthusiasm for Putin.