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Here is the list of the most dangerous wedge issues for Trump and the Republicans, along with their likely responses:

1. TRUMP AND HIS LEGAL TROUBLES: Polls consistently show that between 10 and 20 percent of normal Republican voters won’t vote for Trump in November. January 6, the impeachments, Stormygate, and the like are the principal reason for this. THE RESPONSE: Since Trump has become, if anything, even more militant about the “rigged” election, the only possibility is false equivalence. Biden is corrupt, too! Look at Hunter!
2. ABORTION: The midterms are a cautionary tale here; plenty of moderate GOP members, particularly women, will cross over to protect their rights. THE RESPONSE: Ambiguity. Float trial balloons and walk away. Support federal legislation at times, but not others. Just don’t get pinned down to a position that will cost votes and divide the party.
3. UKRAINE: Putin is hardly universally popular among GOP voters. THE RESPONSE: More ambiguity. Blame Biden for the war and promise to end it quickly without saying how, although we already know the answer to that one.
4. GUNS: The GOP consistently supports its base over the wishes of the vast majority of Americans on this issue. That won’t change between now and November. THE RESPONSE: Pretend the problem really revolves around mental health issues, but do nothing to resolve them.

The vast majority of Americans will make their choice in November based on identity and cultural issues. Most of the remainder will decide based on their perceptions of the state of the economy. Does that mean the rest of the issues just don’t matter?

In a close election, no. Wedge issues–the kind that cause some voters who would normally support one party to split a ticket, or to change sides–can be decisive in swing states and districts. As a result, they deserve considerable attention.

My next two posts will consequently address wedge issues first from the GOP perspective, and then the Democrats. In each case, I will be identifying the issues that are of concern and how the party in question will try to paper over them.

As I noted in my previous post, the Israeli government’s indifference to suffering in Gaza is an effort to split the difference between either ethnic cleansing or genocide (favored by the extreme right cabinet members) and the counterinsurgency strategy supported by the American government. If this continues, Israel will be forced to pick up the entire bill for occupying and rebuilding Gaza. It will also be making certain that Joe Biden is the last pro-Israel Democratic president in my lifetime.

These are terrible problems, but Bibi probably doesn’t care, because splitting the difference is keeping him in power in the short run. Putting his political survival ahead of the national interest will have the impact described in the old Fram oil filter commercial–pay me a little more, or a lot later.

There are two different ways for an Israeli to view the war in Gaza. If you think Hamas is the enemy, but not the population as a whole, you want to separate the fighters from the civilians and keep the latter group as safe as possible. If you have concluded that the entire population of Gaza is at fault for October 7, however, it makes perfect sense to kill as many Palestinians as possible; there is effectively no distinction between militants and civilians.

The Israeli cabinet clearly includes representatives of both groups. As a result, the Israeli military is splitting the difference. It is not engaged in genocide–it is making some grudging efforts to protect the population–but it is only doing the minimum required by the rest of the world to take care of the civilians instead of embracing the idea of separating them from the fighters.

It is the classic Bibi move–show the Israeli public that you are the indispensable man by standing up to the rest of the world while maintaining a leash on the absolute worst impulses of the far right. It keeps him in power, but results in incoherent policy and stores up future problems for his successors.

We know that Trump will claim that the upcoming election is “rigged” against him, because that’s what he always does. But with the end of special pandemic voting rules and the adoption of plenty of new restrictive state election laws, this argument will make less sense. How, then, will he say the “rigging” is taking place?

Trump and his followers will insist that local election officials in large cities are throwing his ballots into creeks and bringing fake Biden ballots to polling places in suitcases. What they really mean by this is that black Americans in urban areas aren’t real Americans, so they shouldn’t be allowed to vote. The allegedly corrupt urban polling place is a dog whistle for an unsavory morsel of racist ideology.

The Israeli Army’s chief of staff apparently noted this morning that Israel was at war with Hamas, not the people of Gaza. He is exactly right; Hamas didn’t mobilize the people of Gaza for war, it hid underneath them. That’s the reason, as I have noted previously, that the World War II analogy used by some Israelis doesn’t apply here.

But the war Israel is actually fighting doesn’t match the guy’s words. The Israelis are making little effort to separate the fighters from the civilian population. Instead of enthusiastically protecting civilians in an effort to isolate the militants, they do as little as possible to meet the needs of non-combatants and complain bitterly when the rest of the world prods them to do so.

Will this latest mistake cause the government to change course? Don’t hold your breath, because there are several members of the Israeli cabinet who view the enemy as the entire Palestinian population, not just Hamas, and Bibi needs their votes to stay in power.

A right to privacy was added to the Florida Constitution in 1980 by popular vote. As a result of the decision in Roe, it was commonly understood that the concept of privacy included abortion at the time of the vote. In light of that, and the reasoning in Roe, the Florida Supreme Court found that the Florida Constitution provided protections for abortion above and beyond what could be found in the US Constitution and case law.

But a new Florida Supreme Court, packed with DeSantis supporters, decided that all of the evidence of the public’s understanding of the amendment was unconvincing and overturned the previous decision on Monday. It was an unscrupulous act of raw judicial power. Thomas and Scalia would be proud.

The Florida court probably thinks it immunized itself from criticism by permitting, by the narrowest of margins, the 2024 ballot referendum on abortion rights to go forward. In the press, yes; in my eyes, no.

Bibi uncharacteristically apologized for the deaths of aid workers at the hands of Israeli soldiers, but he also added, “It happens.” He’s right; soldiers rarely have perfect information, and they’re bound to make mistakes at times. But it is far more likely that they will kill innocent aid workers if your country’s leadership openly puts a much higher priority on killing terrorists than on providing food for desperate civilians. This was bound to happen sooner or later.

At some point, if only for his own political survival, Biden is going to have to make it clear in public that America will no longer provide weapons or diplomatic support if the Israelis continue to ignore our advice. Could this episode be the turning point? It’s possible; even the Israelis acknowledge they were in the wrong this time.

We, the real people of America, in order to destroy wokeness, promote the interest of white Christians, encourage the use of fossil fuels, suck up to foreign dictators, and eliminate expertise in our government, do hereby appoint Donald J. Trump as the ruler of our country, with unlimited and perpetual power to do whatever he pleases.

I hold these truths to be self-evident: that all real Americans are created equal, except me; that I was appointed by God, if there is anyone greater than me, to rule over America; that it is therefore the obligation of all true Americans to suck up to me; and that the purpose of government is to give me unlimited power to abuse and make miserable anyone claiming to be an American who doesn’t fall into line.

Beyonce doesn’t make albums; she makes statements. She doesn’t try to persuade you; she demands your allegiance. She can do that, too. She has an internet army to back her up.

And so, the question was whether she could make the country music establishment bend the knee to her by releasing a record with several country songs. So far, the answer is no. While her record, as usual, has been received ecstatically by her fans and the critics, country radio won’t play it.

But this should be fun, if you’re a member of the blue team. First of all, some hapless country music establishment figure is bound to put his foot in it, and the Beyhive will respond with all of its fury. There are times when it feels like only the red team is fighting the culture war, so this will provide some reassurance to the rest of us. In addition, it would be amusing to see Beyonce, Jay-Z, and family performing at the Grand Old Opry as the Carter Family.

The problem with being an insurgent populist is, if you win, where do you go next? It’s all well and good to run against the liberal establishment where there is one, but if the red team has complete control of your state’s politics, what do you do?

Start a race to the bottom. Pretend that the band of populists that is in power is actually the liberal establishment. Be as irresponsible as possible and take pride in it. Never let anyone be more outrageous than you are.

Which is why Matt Gaetz, in spite of his many issues, has a good chance of being Florida’s next governor if he decides to run.

The thing you need to understand about Jesus is that he wasn’t from the big city. He wasn’t some illegal immigrant or coastal elite guy. He was one of us. He was a red person. He loved country music and NASCAR, not hip-hop and the NBA.

But the day came when he had to go to the city to bring his message to the blue people. And so, he packed up his big black SUV–Jesus was a huge fan of fossil fuels–and headed for Jerusalem. He had a big rally when he got there. The crowds were enormous–the biggest ever, of course.

He went directly to the home of woke capitalism after the rally to set the people straight. When he told off the woke bosses, the deep state retaliated. They weren’t going to let him get away with it. Something had to be done.

A lesser man would have just accepted his fate, but not our Jesus. He had an arsenal of AR-15s in his SUV–like us, he always packed heat–and he wasn’t going down without a fight. He and his disciples took over the temple and shot it out with the Romans and the Jews. It looked like something out of “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid.”

In the end, the temple was destroyed, and Jesus was killed–just like in Waco. But he was resurrected and then reincarnated as the GOP nominee for president. Why do you think we love him so much?

For purposes of moving absolutely essential legislation, the House is effectively being run by a coalition of Democrats and moderate Republicans. For all other purposes, it’s Romper Room. Johnson is giving the right-wing extremists the keys to the asylum to do anything they want in an effort to keep them on side.

It’s a very strange arrangement. Both sides tolerate it for now because they know the alternative could be worse, and the election is coming.

The acid test for the coalition is whether Johnson ever permits a vote on aid to Ukraine. If he does, the right may try to dump him; if he doesn’t, the Democrats will have to take action. They have to get something in exchange for their tacit support.

The three words I would use to describe liberalism are humility, tolerance, and optimism. Humility, because liberals believe that no single person has all of the answers; tolerance, for the same reason; and optimism, because the free flow of ideas will ultimately result in the discovery and common embrace of the truth. As a result, freedom of speech is an essential component of liberal democracy.

Historically, however, the negative impacts of free speech have been mitigated by the presence of gatekeepers and by time; if you wanted to say something false and inflammatory in public, you had to take the time to reflect and compose a letter to the editor of the local newspaper, who would probably refuse to print it. Social media eliminate both of those mitigating factors. Dangerous lies can spread around the world faster than the truth can catch up. What becomes of liberalism then?

Without at least some sort of limited consensus on what is acceptable and unacceptable speech, liberals are struggling mightily to find an answer to that question. For reactionaries and progressives, however, there is no difficulty; if you don’t like a particular kind of speech, you just ban it. The simplicity of that approach gives them an advantage, but it is a danger to our political system.