Trump has now promised to respect Iranian “sovereignty,” which effectively means he is no longer interested in regime change, the initial objective of the war. If you take this paper commitment seriously, which, in light of Trump’s history, you probably shouldn’t, it represents a permanent betrayal of the Iranian people and a glaring admission that the premise of the war was faulty.
Regime change in Iran was possible, but only through a large-scale ground invasion or the use of nuclear weapons; conventional bombing is not enough. Have the Israelis learned this lesson? Probably not. If they have, they don’t have large enough ground forces to make it happen, so if they genuinely believe Iran is an existential threat (they probably don’t), then nukes are the obvious answer.
Obama wasn’t counting on it, but he clearly hoped that he could turn his nuclear agreement into a broader political detente by giving the Iranian regime a vested economic interest in peace. Is Trump trying the same thing with his vague promises of a reconstruction fund? It would be consistent with his usual modus operandi.