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Mercantilism probably makes some sense if you are operating a state capitalistic system like the Chinese.  Every export business is, in a sense, an arm of the state, which seeks to accumulate and distribute assets in a way to maximize public gratitude and stability.

America is a different story.  Our country does not trade with China; our people and companies do business with their businesses.  Does it make sense to say that I am “losing at trade” if I buy a Chinese-made TV at a really good price? Similarly, are American construction and manufacturing companies “losing” if the Chinese are selling steel at remarkably low prices?  Clearly, no.

The bottom line with trade is that it is intended to benefit everyone; it is not a zero-sum game.  Focusing exclusively on the deficit in traded manufactured goods is, therefore, a warped way of looking at the situation, particularly since Americans frequently add much of the value to “Chinese”  products in the first place.

              We Didn’t Make That Here

iPhones made in China.

New cars from Japan.

Lots of clothes from Vietnam.

Some say it’s out of hand.

 

The flow of goods upon our shores

Can look like a tsunami.

It’s hollowed out the middle class

And damaged our economy.

 

We export jobs around the world

To lands with cheaper labor.

We get low prices in exchange

As they return the favor.

 

But we also have stuff for sale.

New works from Hollywood.

Drugs and beef and services.

Some manufactured goods.

 

We didn’t make that here, you say.

I cannot disagree.

But very few will benefit

When trade’s no longer free.

Sanders isn’t going to be the nominee, but you can’t say he hasn’t made a difference.  Here is his legacy, for good and for ill:

1. He has driven Clinton away from free trade agreements.  It is hard to see how the TPP can be approved at this point, given the success of the Trump and Sanders campaigns with protectionism.  The Chinese will be delighted.
2. He has put higher taxes and an expanded welfare state on the table.  Sanders is the most left-wing candidate I can remember seeing in my lifetime.  While some of his success simply derives from the fact that he is not a Clinton, one has to assume that part of it is a constituency to make America Danish.  That means we will see more proposals to expand the welfare state in the future.  One hopes that future candidates will have a more sophisticated idea of what is actually workable, but I give him credit for taking on a taboo and, to some extent, winning.
3. You can run a financially successful campaign with very little support from large donors.   Look for more of this in the future.

Here is the state of the Middle East and Africa when Trump’s successor took office in 2021:

1.  Trump almost immediately made a deal with Putin in which the latter was given a free hand in the former Soviet Union (minus the Baltic states, although there was some ambiguity there) in exchange for assistance with the war against IS.  Trump also agreed to support the Assad regime for the duration of the war.  Russia and the US then turned their guns collectively on IS.  The Caliphate was destroyed; however, elements of IS remain in other parts of the world.
2. Naturally, one of the outcomes of the American/Russian alliance on Syria was intense Turkish and Saudi anger.  Trump made it clear that his loyalty to them was purely transactional.  The Saudis responded by starting to work on a nuclear weapon.  As a result of all of this, Trump moved closer to Iran, notwithstanding his concerns about the nuclear agreement.
3. Trump attempted to midwife a deal between the Israelis and Palestinians, but failed.  Thereafter, he lost interest in the subject, which he regarded as hopeless, and essentially told the Israelis to do as they pleased.
4. Trump eliminated all humanitarian and economic aid to African nations and stopped cooperating with international agencies doing humanitarian work, claiming that the US could no longer afford it.  He responded to pandemics, not by providing aid, but by prohibiting travel to and from the affected nations. American prestige in Africa collapsed, with the Chinese being the principal beneficiaries.

The corollary to President Trump’s willingness to accept Southeast Asia and the former Soviet Union as spheres of influence for China and Russia, respectively, was a more aggressive stance towards what he viewed as an American sphere of influence in Latin America.  Not surprisingly, this led to ongoing friction with Mexico and other South American countries.  Trump threatened military intervention on several occasions, and actually followed through with his threat on one or two.  As a result, American influence is at its lowest level in about a century.

So now to the State of New York.

Trump’s hoping to increase the torque.

A convention fight looms.

If it happens, he’s doomed.

Like a bottle of wine sold uncorked.

President Trump withdrew all of the American troops in South Korea and Japan, made it clear that our nuclear umbrella did not cover them, and repudiated longstanding security commitments to Taiwan.  The following events occurred after that:

1.  Lacking the ability to defend itself, Taiwan fell without a shot.
2.  The Japanese and South Koreans were essentially left with the choice of becoming Chinese vassal states or dramatically increasing expenditures on defense.  Even building a nuclear weapon would not address the fragility of their economic lifeline through the East and South China Seas.  The Chinese offered them easy terms, and they surrendered;  they are now part of a well-defined Chinese economic and political sphere of influence.
3.  China’s remaining potential opponents made the best deal they could.  The China Seas are now Chinese lakes.
4.  India held out.  Control of the Indian Ocean is necessary for the Chinese to maintain their own economic lifeline.  A potential conflict is brewing here.

He should replace the Rolling Stones with Beck on his playlist.  On second thought, he can keep “You Can’t Always Get What You Want.”

Again, it is January 20, 2021.  President Trump, after unsuccessfully attempting to coerce our NATO allies to spend more on defense, has long since withdrawn all American troops from Europe.  He has also suggested that Europe will no longer be covered by our nuclear umbrella.  What has happened as a result?

1.  Beset by civil war and corruption, and no longer believing in Western support, Ukraine has thrown in the towel and agreed to become a Russian vassal state in exchange for economic aid and an end to the war.
2.  The Russians have invaded and now control Georgia.
3.  Germany is building a nuclear weapon.
4.  What is left of NATO now operates within the auspices of the EU.
5.  The security guarantee for the Baltic states has come into question.  Putin has considered invading, but, given the ongoing economic problems in Russia, he has decided against it, for the moment.  He continues to hope they will fall into his lap.

Apart from his family and his affection for “The Princess Bride,” there isn’t much to like about Cruz.  He oozes negative energy and ambition from every pore. Even people who should be his ideological allies view him as a user.  His extremism is a matter of record.

And yet, the left should be rooting for him, for the following reasons:

1.  He is the only plausible GOP alternative to Trump.
2.  A contested GOP convention can only help the Democrats.
3.  It is at least arguable that he would be an even weaker general election candidate than Trump if he gets the nomination.
4.  If, in spite of the odds, he won the general election, he would probably govern as a generic Republican;  his tax plan, which sets him apart from the GOP mainstream, would never pass even a GOP Congress, because it has too many losers.  He wouldn’t tear up all of our treaties or threaten the use of nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip.  In other words, he is a much less risky choice than Trump.

It’s January 20, 2021.  Here is what has happened in the US since the election of President Trump:

1.  After a brief and unsuccessful effort to “renegotiated” with President Xi, Trump has imposed his 45 percent tariff on Chinese goods.
2. The GOP Congress has also passed the enormous Trump tax cut.  As a result of these two events, in addition to the explosive growth in military spending and entitlements, prices and the deficit are skyrocketing.  The Fed consequently increases interest rates dramatically.  The market crashes, and the country heads into a deep and lengthy recession, which is exacerbated by the loss of jobs in export industries.
3.  Trump calls for patience, saying that import substitution, in time, will address the economic problems.  Patience is in short supply, however; the Democrats sweep the 2018 elections.
4.  The notoriously thin-skinned Trump persuades the lame duck Republican Congress to pass a Sedition Law which exposes critics of Trump and the GOP to criminal sanctions.  Executives with the NYT and MSNBC are charged with violations of the new law, but no jury will convict them.   However, the new Supreme Court, with three new Trump appointees, upholds the law, saying that criticism of the President during a time of national crisis is a “clear and present danger” to the public welfare.
5.  The new Democratic Congress attempts to reverse the Trump legislation in 2019, but does not have enough votes to override his veto.  The recession continues.
6.  Trump attempts to mobilize support from violent gangs of blue color workers who are employed in the new import substitution businesses.  Most of America is appalled.
7.  Ever the strong man, Trump considers declaring a state of emergency and cancelling the 2020 elections, but ultimately decides against it in the face of united opposition from his own party and the military.  At this point, his support has dwindled to a handful of blue collar workers and the Deep South.

After President Sanders takes the oath, he celebrates the coming of the “revolution.”  However, there is no money for social problems; it takes decades to repair the damage done by the Trump Administration.

OK, so maybe I’m an alarmist, but what in here doesn’t have a basis in fact?

An epic battle of the national id and superego.  Let’s go, superego!

There once was a Donald named Trump.

The MSM made him a grump.

He claims to be strong

But he’s really just wrong

And his numbers are starting to slump.

As I’ve noted on many previous occasions, there is little point in voting for Sanders unless he can also produce the “revolution.”  The “revolution” would turn the Democratic Party into more of a working class based party than the current coalition of victims, which is practically impossible unless its leaders tailor their pitch more to the kind of white working men who are currently supporting Trump.  That would mean showing far more sensitivity to white rural values, including gun ownership, than is popular with most of the members of the party.

Sanders could have taken a strong stance on these issues.  He could have, for example, argued forcefully and consistently that gun control measures are best handled at a local level, because the party needs the votes of rural gun owners.   To take the matter to a higher plane, he could have taken the position that racial issues are simply a distraction from the more important matter of uniting the working class to rein in capitalists and Wall Street bankers.  He didn’t do any of that, because he knew perfectly well that it would cost him more votes from urban and suburban activists than it was likely to win.

In other words, in the final analysis, Bernie sold out the “revolution” and became a conventional left-wing Democratic candidate because it gave him a better chance of becoming President.  He wasn’t going to win in either event, but it would have been a lot more interesting if he had decided to compete harder with Trump for his angry white working class voters.

There once was a woman named Hill.

She took on the Bern with her Bill.

She’ll run out the clock

Then it’s time to take stock

The Trumpster’s the next one to kill.

 

The Democrat maverick Bern

Against him the calendar turns.

His party’s soon over.

It’s time to get sober.

Here’s hoping that soon he will learn.