The Killa in Manila

There once was a man in Manila.

Of him we’ve had more than our fill-a.

He’s unleashed his thugs

On the folks who sell drugs.

You could call him Rodrigo the Killa.

 

I’ve always believed that individual political systems are the product of national culture and historical experience, rather than some concept of universal rights. The exception to that would be due process of law, without which a civilized and prosperous society, in my view, is simply not possible.  That is what makes Duterte’s approach to vigilante “justice” so obnoxious.

(Incidentally, Duterte bears plenty of resemblance to Trump, so Americans, and the rest of the world, should be viewing him as a test case for a Trump Administration.  You can see the fruits of his erratic behavior and coarse vocabulary already.)

How do we deal with this?  We have strategic interests in common with the Filipino people that transcend our disgust with Duterte.   We don’t have to embrace every aspect of the Filipino political system in order to cooperate on issues regarding the South China Sea.  The answer, to me, is clear:  tell the world openly and bluntly that America will continue to cooperate with the Filipino leadership on matters of mutual interest regardless of our belief that vigilantism ultimately accomplishes nothing, and will come to a bad end.  That approach lets us pursue our interests without compromising our values.

A Few Thoughts on the Commander-in-Chief Forum

  1.  In light of the importance of the issue, Matt Lauer spent way too much time asking Clinton questions about her e-mail.  If he ran out of time, it was his fault, not hers.
  2.  Clinton came across as being competent, but not compelling.
  3.  Trump was rarely pressed during his part of the program, but he repeated several of his talking points that are absurd or obnoxious, including the following:  (a) We should “take Iraq’s oil” (the issues that would raise, and the implications of it, will be discussed in a post in the near future); (b) He has a secret plan to defeat ISIS, and we should just have faith in it, based on his success as a businessman; (c) He can’t figure out whether our military establishment is a disaster or not, so he compromised by saying that he would listen to people who are more competent than the ones currently in charge; (d) He once again lied about his position on Iraq, but provided an interview date that disproved his own statements; (e) He suggested that President Obama was ignoring professional advice, based on his perception of the body language of his briefers, without providing any details; (f) He embraced Putin, as usual; and (g) He cited the resignation of the Mexican Finance Minister after his visit as evidence of his ability to be restrained and diplomatic, which makes absolutely no sense on any level.
  4. Chuck Todd indicated before the program started that Clinton would be graded on her performance, and Trump on a curve.  That is fundamentally unfair.
  5.  I don’t know how perceptive the average American viewer is.  If he missed the points laid out in #3 above, thanks to Lauer’s failure to follow up, last night was probably a victory for Trump.

A Trump Day Blues Song Without Music

                Donald Trump’s Blues

I’ve got those dirty, lowdown, presidential blues.

You surely know by now; it’s all over the news.

The MSM attack; they haven’t got a clue.

I see in black and white; my foes all see in hues.

 

I should be way ahead; the polls say I’m behind.

Some people think I’m cruel; I’m really far too kind.

I have no money; my campaign’s in a bind.

I’ll make us great again; my critics are just blind.

 

I’ve got the blues.

The faux strong man blues.

Didn’t mean to be a fascist

But what else could I choose?

Can’t see where this is heading

But I’ve paid my share of dues.

I just can’t sit here thinking

That I’m really going to lose.

On Trump and Savonarola

Roughly two months ago, Thomas Friedman had a column in the NYT in which he was interviewing the author of a book about disruptive technologies in the 15th Century.  Friedman asked the guy if he could think of a 15th Century equivalent of Donald Trump;  he indicated that Savonarola’s sermons were similar, in their day, to Trump’s incendiary tweets.

At the time, I thought this was one of the dumbest things I had ever read.  I had to reconsider, however, after I heard Trump’s dystopian speech at the GOP convention.

Notwithstanding the two apocalyptic visions, Trump and Savonarola have very little in common.  The latter was an ascetic idealist who genuinely thought he was channeling God, not proclaiming his own personal greatness.  You may well disagree with the wisdom of his objectives (I certainly would), but you can’t reasonably say that he was an opportunist or a self-seeker, and the thuggishness of some of his supporters was more than matched by his opponents.  Trump, on the other hand, is a luxury-loving, wealthy cynic who seeks power only to elevate his already swollen ego.

I will be on vacation through next Tuesday.  Posting will resume on Wednesday.

The Immigration Etch-A-Sketch

So, within the period of just a few hours, Trump:

  1.  Meets with the President of Mexico and tries to pass himself off as a diplomat;
  2.  Subsequently engages in a debate about whether he lied when he said paying for the wall wasn’t discussed;  and then
  3.  Makes an inflammatory speech in Arizona in which he replays his greatest hits:  Mexico will pay for the wall; immigrants commit horrible crimes; etc.

Perhaps he thinks that we already have some sort of digital wall at the border that prevents his words from entering Mexico.

In the immortal words of John McEnroe, “You cannot be serious!”

A Trump Day Song Without a Tune

           Life in the Time of Trump

Life in the time of Trump

Is looking a bit grim.

There’s Clinton, too.

For me and you

The picking’s pretty slim.

Obama’s time has come and gone.

He did all that he could.

He brought our country back again.

I’d keep him if I could.

 

Life in the time of Trump.

We’ve seen much better days.

More bombs and guns;

Nowhere to run;

A future full of haze.

We’re looking for a savior

But the candidates fall flat.

I think I know which way to go.

Trump isn’t where it’s at.

 

Life in the time of Trump.

He promises to win.

I heard him say

A better day

Is certain to begin.

A better day for whom? you ask

‘Cause all I hear is hate.

The people who he talks down to

Deserve a better fate.

 

Life in the time of Trump’s

Not making any sense.

Some people shout

To keep them out.

A wall, not just a fence.

They want to take our country back

And kick the others out.

But finding scapegoats isn’t

What our country’s all about.

 

Life in the time of Trump.

November’s getting near.

We try to live our lives with hope

And not give into fear.

We’d like some real choices

But one party’s full of loons.

I hope they finally sober up

When these lyrics find a tune.

On Trump and Kaiser Wilhelm II

One of my favorite Trump historical analogies is to the last German Emperor: arrogant; bombastic; mercurial; extremely nationalistic; impossible for his advisers to keep under control.  We all know how that turned out.

Comparing Trump and Palin

The origins of the GOP’s populist madness can be traced to the last few months of the 2008 campaign, when the Republican faithful were baying for Palin and essentially ignoring McCain.  Trump and Palin clearly appeal to a lot of the same voters.  How are they similar, and how are they different?

  1. Clearly, both of them are right-wing populists with a grudge against the GOP establishment.
  2. Both of them, in their respective unique ways, are effective communicators, at least with the far right.
  3. Palin’s stock-in-trade is her pseudo-Jeffersonian belief that rural America is the “real America.”  She is openly contemptuous of urban voters and cosmopolitan culture.  Trump, on the other hand, is a creature of New York, and directs his ire at foreigners and elite politicians, intellectuals, and businessmen who fail, in his eyes, to stand up to them.
  4.  Both of them have an unsophisticated critique of the American political system.
  5.  Palin’s appeal is rooted in the Christian right.  Trump is a rakish Social Darwinian.
  6.  Palin is a career politician.  She ran for VP on her record, not as an authoritarian.
  7.  Palin has a history of taking on oil companies.  Trump’s populism occasionally meanders into attacks on big business, but his tax cut and deregulation program is in the mainstream of the GOP establishment.

On the whole, the differences are as compelling as the similarities.

On Trump and McCarthy

Welcome to Trump analogy week!

What Trump and Joe McCarthy have in common, obviously, is a similar brand of opportunistic paranoid right-wing populism.  Their differences are as follows:

  1. Trump has the style of a stand-up comedian.  You can be entertained by him even if you find what he says absurd or appalling.  McCarthy didn’t have that kind of charm; he just made your flesh crawl.
  2.  McCarthy ruined the lives of a lot of innocent people.  Trump hasn’t done that–yet.
  3.  If Trump somehow gets elected President, he will be in a position to do vastly more damage to the nation and to the whole world that McCarthy ever did.

So Who Is The “Real Trump?”

Countless gallons of ink have been spilled speculating about what portions of Trump’s campaign are real, and what is an act.  Here is my working hypothesis:

1.  Thin-skinned, publicity-seeking narcissist:  Real.  He’s been like that all of his life.  Not even Meryl Streep can act that well.

2.  Social Darwinian:  Real.  Most of his ideology, if you could call it that, springs from his clear belief that life rewards the strong and ruthless (i.e., him), and punishes the weak.

3.  Mercantilist:  Real.  Trump equates trade to athletics and concludes that countries with trade surpluses are “winners.”  That is a deeply weird opinion, but there is no reason to doubt that he sincerely believes it.

4.  Bigot:  Mostly opportunist.  There is some evidence supporting the notion that Trump has been a racist all of his life, but I don’t find it compelling.  His immigration stance is based on a concept that worked for Mitt Romney in the GOP primaries in 2012; his law and order stance only emerged late in the campaign, and was stolen from Richard Nixon.

5.  Authoritarian:  Evolving.  There was no reason to believe that he didn’t accept democratic norms at the beginning of his campaign, but things are different now, due largely to the logic inherent in his candidacy, which, given his lack of qualifications and indifference to GOP values, had to emphasize his ability to get things done.

Trumpism Without Trump: A Test Case

As everyone knows, Trump beat Marco Rubio decisively in the Florida Presidential primary several months ago.  Having decided, after much ado, to attempt to retain his Senate seat, Rubio is being challenged by Carlos Beruff, a wealthy developer who, quite logically, is running as a Trump clone.  He ties himself explicitly to Trump in his ads and proudly uses the same coarse language as the man on golf cart.

Rubio is ignoring Beruff and is running ads attacking Clinton and the Democrats. Unlike Trump, Beruff isn’t a celebrity, and he isn’t benefiting from any free media, so his campaign isn’t getting any traction.  It appears that Rubio will beat him decisively in next week’s primary.

The formula seems to be Trump minus celebrity status equals zero.

President Trump and the Fed

If you’re looking for an area in which Trump actually makes more sense than the mainstream of the GOP, this is probably it.

Ted Cruz wants to bring back the gold standard, and Paul Ryan can bang on and on about the declining value of the dollar, but the truth is that the dollar is extremely strong right now, and inflation is practically nonexistent.  The mainstream GOP view consequently only makes sense if you assume it is an effort to pander to elderly constituents who prefer to keep all of their money in the bank.

I don’t remember hearing Trump talk about the Fed during the campaign.  I know that he says that he “loves debt” and that he was pleased that the pound fell after the Brexit vote.  It would appear, therefore, that his Fed appointees would probably maintain the status quo, everything else staying equal.

A Neil Young Song Parody for Foreign Policy Friday

               Assad the Killer

He went flying above Aleppo

With his barrel bombs and gas

And his Russian friends beside him.

Swore he’d kick the rebels’ ass.

 

The shattered population

Turned their tires into smoke

As the death fell all around them.

The ceasefire was a joke.

 

He gathered all his allies.

Iran; Hezbollah, too.

He told them of his big plans

And he asked them what to do.

 

They said “Just keep it up, man.

You’ve got millions more to kill.

The West won’t intervene, now.

They just don’t have the will.”

 

He went flying above Aleppo.

Assad, Assad.

What a killer!

 

Parody of “Cortez the Killer” by Neil Young.