Category: Uncategorized

Three suggestions for the Democratic Party:

1.  Take Michelle’s advice.  You can’t win a race to the bottom with Trump, so don’t try.  When he goes low, be responsible and go high.

2.  Remember your target audience.  There are millions of people out there who had serious qualms about Trump, but supported him because they thought the alternative was worse.  They are your audience;  take care of them.

3.  Don’t get frustrated if you can’t convert the “deplorables.”  Trump was right about one thing:  some of his supporters will remain in his camp no matter what happens.  You can’t reach them, so don’t spend any time worrying about them.

 

1.  In the long run, will Trump’s foreign policy be conventional or unconventional?  That it will be truculent is a given, but to what end?  Trump and Flynn seem to be wedded to neo-mercantilism and the Unholy Alliance, but the country, the GOP, and even members of his own cabinet will resist.  The early returns are not encouraging, but we have four long years to go.

2.  Which of the three economic scenarios will come to pass?  The variables here are the intensity of the trade wars and entitlement cuts;  a huge regressive tax cut and interest rate hikes are givens.  Trade wars will make the Trump slump much worse; entitlement cuts will reduce the deficit and interest rates, but focus the pain on the poor.  Neither of these is inevitable.

3.  How much damage will be done to our political system?  Trump cannot abide the idea of “losing.”  Don’t expect him to sit by idly while his program (such as it is) bogs down in Congress, and is unpopular.  He’s going to lie about the facts, do his best to muzzle the media, and ignore court orders.  He will probably demand more law enforcement powers, and get them, as soon as there is a domestic terrorist attack.  How far will this go?  Nobody knows yet.

The new White House counsellor named Conway

Was offended by crowd counts on Friday.

Her opinion was backed

By alternative facts.

She said it’s her way or the highway.

She wrote songs that were poignant, full of puns and memorable turns of phrase, wickedly funny, and feminist to the core.  Think Elvis Costello, but from a woman’s perspective, and with a bit more polish.

If you’ve never heard of her, and chances are you haven’t, you don’t know what you missed.

Now I have a new reason to grieve, as if I needed one.

If Barack Obama was the moon and the stars, Michelle was the earth:  strong; direct; fiercely intelligent.  She navigated more minefields than we can imagine and left the White House with a higher approval rating than her husband.  She will be missed.

Comparisons to JFK were ubiquitous when Obama ran in 2008.  Now that his term is over, how do the two stack up?

                                JFK               v.             Obama

Trailblazer           Catholic                  African-American

Great Speaker      Yes                          Yes

Russian Foe          Khrushchev          Putin

Foreign Failure    Bay of Pigs            Syria

Foreign Success    Test Ban Treaty    Iran Deal

Crisis                       Cuban Missiles     Great Recession

Civil Rights Issue   Segregation          Police Tactics

Endless War           Vietnam                Afghanistan

 

And the winner is . . . Obama.  While we don’t know how much of his legacy will survive Trump, he will always be the guy who steered us out of the Great Recession.  JFK’s principal legacy, to be blunt, is the Camelot myth.

 

FTT #3

CROOKED MEDIA DOCTOR PHOTOS TO MAKE ME LOOK UNPOPULAR.  I’M MORE POPULAR THAN JESUS.  SAD!

FTT #4

NO TENS AMONG MARCHING WOMEN.  PROBABLY ALL THREES AND FOURS.

Today, I’m unveiling a new feature:  fake Trump tweets!  Take them seriously, but not literally.

FTT #1

AN AMAZING DAY!  JACKIE E KILLED IT!  WHO NEEDS BEYONCE AND ARETHA–THEY’RE SUCH LOSERS!

FTT #2

TIME TO UNITE THE COUNTRY!  GET BEHIND ME, OR I’LL KICK YOUR ASS!

 

At least environmentalists can be cheered;  Trump clearly believes in recycling his garbage.  In this case, it was his “Midnight in America” convention speech.

The Inaugural Address was terrible–even worse than I would have predicted.  He showed no imagination in falling back on his campaign themes.  His portrayal of a rotting American society is at complete variance with the facts.  Instead of attempting to uplift and unite, he flipped the bird to the rest of the world.  His weird neo-mercantilist ideas were on full display.  And so on.

In response, my wife and I have decided to engage in the most meaningful and entertaining form of protest available.  We’re going to see “La La Land.”

The 45th President Trump

Thinks following rules is for chumps.

Our man of the hour

Just worships raw power.

If you don’t like it, go take a jump.

             It’s The End Of The World As We Know It

That’s great!  It starts with an earthquake.

Building walls and guys with balls.

The man is not afraid.

 

Eye of a hurricane; change is coming soon.

Waiting for the axe to fall; it’s just impending doom.

Muzzle wuzzle media, so we can’t hear the news.

Tax and hacks and silence as the crooks are on the loose.

Flames and planes and gold and mold; it’s getting pretty dark.

Can you see the future now?  The view is pretty stark.

The battle’s finally over, but the war has just begun.

Don’t you think the next four years are going to be fun?

 

It’s the end of the world as we know it.

It’s the end of the world as we know it.

It’s the end of the world as we know it.

We’re out of time.

 

Parody of “It’s The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine) by R.E.M.

Life in the time of Trump

The dreaded day is here

Catastrophe

For you and me

A nation full of fear

We’ll see the world in different ways

As friends and foes change sides

America the beautiful

Where dreams come home to die

The story here is complicated, so I will break it into parts:

1.  Afghanistan:  Obama portrayed the Afghan War as the “good war” during the 2008 campaign, partly because he believed it, but mostly out of political opportunism.  Once in office, he found himself unable either to make the Afghan government work or to solve the conundrum of Pakistani double-dealing.  He tried to force the Afghans to address their problems by withdrawing, but the Taliban only gained strength, and the withdrawal had to be reversed in part. Today, Afghanistan is a quagmire, with no end in sight, just as it would have been if anyone else had been President.

2.  Iraq:  Obama was unable to persuade the Iraqi government to permit our troops to stay under acceptable terms, so he made lemonade out of lemons and completely withdrew.  The Iraqi government, to no one’s surprise, proved to be sectarian, corrupt, and inept;  anyone who thinks that the continuing presence of American troops would have changed things is kidding himself.  The US initially underestimated the strength of IS, but used the ensuing crisis to its advantage;  a new and more friendly government with more willingness to fight was created. By the end of Obama’s term, IS was on the verge of collapse in Iraq, but none of the underlying political problems had been solved, and more troubles with the Sunnis and Kurds loomed ahead.

3.  Libya:  Obama was pulled into Libya against his wishes by more enthusiastic European governments.  The war was won at very little cost, but the country collapsed into warlordism in the absence of an occupying force on the ground.  IS intervened, but was crushed.  Would you rather live with anarchy or tyranny? Different people would have different answers.

4.  Syria:  Having possibly missed an opportunity early on to bring down the Assad regime, the Obama Administration took the (unspoken, but realistic) position that an acceptable negotiated solution could only come from a balance of power, and behaved accordingly. The Russians and Iranians upset these calculations by escalating the war beyond the administration’s willingness to fight.  Instability in Syria resulted in a refugee crisis that tore Europe apart, and contributed to terrorism at home, as well.  In light of the high price of passivity, would a more aggressive approach have worked better?  We’ll never know;  the only conceptual alternatives were the Libyan approach (limited intervention followed by anarchy) or Iraq (occupation), neither of which was likely to be welcomed by an American public that was sick of wars in the Middle East.

All in all, a mixed bag.

1.  Against the advice of his Cabinet and the will of the American people, Trump quickly enters into a deal with Putin wherein he gives the latter a free hand in the former USSR in exchange for assistance fighting terrorists and benevolent neutrality in disputes with China and Iran.  Trump becomes disillusioned with the deal when it becomes clear that Putin is far more interested in inhaling Ukraine than in helping him deal with his various international crises.  He subsequently pulls a 180 and tries to re-energize NATO.  The Europeans look on, bemused.
2. The outcome of the wars with North Korea and Iran was described in posts last week.
3. Trump engineers a confrontation with the Chinese over the trade deficit and the South China Sea within six months of taking office.  The world watches in horror as it appears that the two nuclear powers could engage in a shooting war.  The war is averted when Trump gives China a free hand in the South China Sea (including Taiwan) in exchange for managed trade–i.e., import and export quotas.
4. The GOP Congress passes a huge and regressive tax cut package.  Business responds to it by stockpiling even more cash and by buying back stock.  There is no resulting boom.
5. The administration, as a whole, looks corrupt and chaotic.  Cabinet members are replaced on a regular basis.
6. Trump withdraws from NAFTA with great fanfare.  Business objects loudly, and a deal is reached with the Mexican government with only cosmetic changes.
7. The combination of protectionist measures and the unnecessary tax cut causes the Fed to raise interest rates significantly.  The result is the “Funhouse Reagan” version of the Trump slump.
8.  After some domestic terrorist incidents, Trump demands new powers of surveillance from Congress, and gets them.  He ignores court decisions finding the new powers unconstitutional.
9. Trump engages in a war with the press, and refuses to speak to anyone except Fox News.  Leakers from his chaotic government are threatened with prosecution, and libel suits are filed, but the MSM continue to oppose him.
10.  There are no major changes to Medicare or Social Security.
11.  Trump gives his unqualified support to the police, and racial tensions increase dramatically.
12.  The US withdraws from the Paris Agreement.  The world reacts with scorn.

By 2020, the market is down, interest rates and unemployment are way up, and American prestige throughout the world has never been lower.  The US is viewed as a rogue and militaristic nation.  China, in spite of all of its weaknesses, is now looked to as a source of stability throughout the world.  Trump has thus made China great again.

Ross Douthat has a fairly measured column in today’s NYT about Obama’s legacy.  I would break it down into three parts:

1. On domestic issues, he is mildly complimentary.  I would agree, with more enthusiasm.
2. On foreign affairs, he gives Obama a lower grade.  That’s reasonable, although it cannot be proved that a more aggressive approach to Syria would have garnered a better result.  In any event, the case against passivity in Syria has to come from someone like John McCain, not Douthat, who didn’t even support our limited involvement in Libya, and never attempted to offer a plausible alternative.
3. While he admits that Obama is hardly the first “imperial” President, he nonetheless condemns him for that.  I have mixed feelings on this subject.  There is no doubt that Obama used his authority to the maximum extent possible, and sometimes pushed the envelope too far.  On the other hand, what were his other choices?  When he continued to try, after several failures, to negotiate in an even-handed way with a Republican Party whose only objective was to drive him out of office, he demoralized his supporters and drove his poll ratings down.  Was he supposed to then tell the American public that, under the Constitution, he was helpless to pursue his agenda, and just leave it at that?

The American public expects the President to be able to act.  Obama’s willingness to use his authority over GOP opposition was a response to that condition; it was not the product of some sort of messianic personality.  If he had simply shrugged his shoulders and told the voters that the Constitution prevented him from getting anything done on issues like climate change and immigration, he would have been rewarded for his high-minded rejection of Caesarism with electoral annihilation.  No politician in his position would have behaved differently.