Category: Uncategorized

Millions of people voted for Trump in 2016 because they bought into his carefully-crafted image of a brilliant, self-made businessman who can drain the swamp and get things done in Washington.  The NYT article was consequently intended to strike at the very heart of his appeal and his self-image.

Will it work?  No, because it’s too late;  everyone has already taken a position on the man based on his behavior in office.  It might have made a difference in 2016, but not now; they’re just preaching to the choir.

The NYT is essentially daring Trump to sue them.  You can be sure the article was reviewed very carefully by their legal team.  I’m guessing he will do some huffing and blowing, but he won’t take any action, because it cuts the legs out from the argument that he should be temporarily immune from defending lawsuits because he is just too busy with his job to be bothered with such flotsam and jetsam.

Besides, truth is a complete defense.

Buddhism had its roots in India, not China.  As a result, it was occasionally viewed with suspicion by the Chinese imperial government.  In the long run, however, it was embraced by the emperors;  even Tibetan Buddhism had strong official support during most of the Qing dynasty.   On an international level, therefore, Buddhism is often identified with China.

The current Chinese government is, of course, officially atheist.  However, it is firmly nationalist, and (unlike Trump) it seeks soft power anywhere it can be found.  There is little about the Chinese political system for a freedom-loving American or European to admire, and Chinese culture, with the exception of martial arts movies and food, doesn’t have much of a following, either, due largely to the difficulties presented by the language.  The Chinese government has consequently promoted Buddhism as a way to project soft power throughout the world.

Will it work?  As long as Buddhism remains out of the religious mainstream in the west, and is popularly identified with the struggles of the Tibetans, probably not.

Soft power has always been one of America’s best diplomatic tools.  International enthusiasm for our culture and our political system has helped us provide leadership in innumerable situations that cannot be resolved by economic or military power.  Even our military leaders would accept that proposition.

Donald Trump does not, however.  His determination to be disliked by the entire world (outside of Israel and Saudi Arabia) and to destroy public confidence in our political system is damaging our credibility throughout the world.  As a result, a recent poll shows that Putin is trusted to do the right thing more than he is.

I’m guessing he thinks soft power is only for girly men.  Tell that to Xi.

Western imperialism was undertaken by mercantilist states, frequently using merchants as agents, to guarantee access to vital natural resources, to establish monopolies in overseas markets, to set up military bases, and to make possible the use of the native population during wars with other competitor states doing the same thing. Is Chinese imperialism any different?

For the most part, no.   China is a mercantilist state; its businesses operating overseas are arms of the government, not independent actors.  It is using its financial resources to buy up valuable natural resources and to make certain that the governments in its near abroad are friendly and stable.  The country’s greatest weakness, from a geopolitical perspective, is its reliance on a supply line that runs through the Straits of Malacca through the Indian Ocean to the Middle East; its investments in infrastructure are clearly intended to provide a realistic alternative that cannot be shut off by unfriendly locals or the US Navy, and it is also buying the right to set up bases around the Indian Ocean.  Sound familiar?

Well, except for the use of native populations during wartime.  The Chinese population is so large, there is no need for that.

Trump has always described NAFTA as a terrible deal;  he will, of course, say that USMCA is a vast improvement.  Is he right?

No.  USMCA helps American dairy farmers and, almost by accident, Canadian dairy consumers.  It will drive up the cost of automobiles and drugs, which is not a plus.  That’s about it.  Whoop-de-doo.

Was this mouse worth all of the strife and uncertainty that we experienced over the last year or so?  Does it really make sense to jeopardize your relationships with your neighbors and allies for such a paltry return?  And is it likely that similar hardball tactics will produce the same results with the EU, the Japanese, and the Chinese, all of whom have more bargaining power than the Canadians and the Mexicans?

Are you kidding me?  What this does is illustrate the difference between being the head of the Trump Organization and the President of the United States.  The former can screw his negotiating partners over and never have to deal with them again; the latter cannot.

The worst case is that the Democrats decide that the new deal is not protectionist enough, and reject it on those grounds.  It could happen.  Stay tuned.

Donald Trump’s idea that trade is a zero-sum game is, of course, inane.   Power, on the other hand, truly is zero-sum, and Trump is not wrong to see China as a significant challenge to the United States, given its size, history, and very different national values.

“Made in China 2025” should be viewed as the first shot in an upcoming tech war similar to the space race with the Soviet Union in the 1950s and 1960s that will have a major impact on both economies and on national security.  The notion that tariffs are going to compel the Chinese to abandon the future and give up on their program of tech promotion is ridiculous.  It’s simply not going to happen.

So what is the appropriate American response to “Made in China 2025?”  As long as we maintain an open society and a market economy, we can’t beat the Chinese by building better barriers, so we need to go the other direction and play to our strengths.  Specifically, we need to actively encourage talented people from all countries to feel welcome here, and we need to increase government funding for basic research.  That’s how we dealt with Sputnik, and that’s what we should do again.

The problem is that large elements of the GOP hate immigrants and oppose additional government spending for anything other than border security and the military.  That has to change, and quickly, if we are to compete successfully over the next decade.

The culture war, of course, has its roots in the ideological, racial, and gender-related conflicts of the sixties.  That was fifty years ago.  There was some hope that the election of Barack Obama, who was too young to have experienced the sixties, would at least ease the war, but it actually made things worse.  Why?

The insurgents in the sixties were, at least in their own eyes, an enlightened minority fighting for freedom.  That was a clear and unwelcome challenge to the World War II generation (today commonly known as the “Greatest Generation”), but it was more of an insult than a threat;  right-wingers within the GG believed themselves to be a “Moral Majority,” and had considerable reason to do so.  In the more recent, second phase, however, the conservatives view themselves as victims, not the majority, and are fighting for power against forces that are trying to overturn centuries of tradition.  It is the perception of the threat that has changed the nature of the war, and made it more vicious.

Alfred Dreyfus was a Jewish army officer who didn’t do it, told the truth, and was railroaded by a French establishment that desperately needed a scapegoat.  Brett Kavanaugh is the child of privilege who capitalized on his family’s money and connections all his life, lied repeatedly under oath, and felt entitled to lash out at anyone with the temerity to question him because, after all, he had earned that Supreme Court seat by getting good grades at Yale.  And it is very likely that he did do it.

Not exactly the same thing.

 

There is every reason to believe that Ford is telling the truth, but to me, that isn’t decisive.  I still think the statute of limitations has long since run on anything Kavanaugh did in high school.

Kavanaugh lost me for two reasons.  First, he lied repeatedly during his testimony, even on minor items like the meaning of “boofed.”  Second, by giving an interview to Fox News and lashing out at Democrats, he established that he is nothing but a right-wing partisan with little interest in persuading anyone to the contrary.  As a result, confirming him will damage public confidence in the judicial system, which needs to be avoided at all costs.

If the FBI is able to do its job properly, my best guess is that they will find that the episode could have happened as Ford described it, notwithstanding Kavanaugh’s denials, but that they cannot prove that it did happen, due to the passage of time and the effects of alcohol.  Party line politics will take over from that point forward, and the country will be much the worse for it.

Is it Mark or Brett?  You decide.

Life in the time of Trump.

Brett Kavanaugh’s in town.

Chaos erupts;

It’s all corrupt;

The system’s going down.

You think we’re low as we can go

And then it gets much worse.

We live in interesting times.

So goes the Chinese curse.

On the Trump nominee known as Brett.

The hearing’s not quite over yet.

On the issue of “boof”

We just didn’t get proof.

I believe that’s as low as it gets.

Flake has the opportunity to go out in a blaze of bipartisan glory, just like McCain.  Will he take it?  I’m not optimistic, but we will find out today.

Update:  He’s a mouse!  I’m sure you’re surprised.

Update to update:  He changed his position–sort of.  He’s still a mouse to me.

Ford’s testimony was very credible, even according to Fox News commentators.  That left Kavanaugh and the GOP senators with the following choices:  (a) label her a liar in spite of all appearances; (b) change the subject and say, essentially, that neither Ford’s charges nor Kavanaugh’s credibility matter; or (c) hold off on a vote and actually do a real investigation and let the chips fall where they may.

The one they didn’t choose was (c).  Kavanaugh went into Trump/Clarence Thomas mode and lashed out at the Democrats, thereby confirming that he is just a political hack, not the nonpartisan figure he implausibly claimed to be, and the senators became accomplices in Trumpian misogyny.  No one can plausibly maintain now that Trump’s attitudes towards women are an outlier in the GOP;  they are, in fact, the mainstream on the Judiciary Committee.

Will the GOP be punished for it in November?  Very possibly.

Don’t Let the Bitches Get You Down

You worked your butt off all your life.

Your nose was always clean.

You earned your house, your job, your wife.

You know just what I mean.

But now it’s coming off the rails

And they laugh at you uptown.

Don’t let the bitches get you down.

 

What do they want? You never know.

Is it money or just fame?

The fun was fast, but torture’s slow.

It’s tough to clear your name.

They’ll tie you up in silken knots

And treat you like a clown.

Don’t let the bitches get you down.

 

The backlash can’t come soon enough

To save you from this fight.

I know it’s hard, and times are tough

But we both know you’re right.

I’ll stand beside you till the end.

We’re bros, my fellow hound.

Don’t let the bitches get you down.