Even red Americans were appalled by the video footage of the murder (I can’t call it anything else) of George Floyd. That episode, in addition to some others and Trump’s insensitive and opportunistic response, dramatically increased support for Black Lives Matter and public consciousness of racism in general. It appeared to some optimists that a transformative moment on race had arrived.
As I anticipated, the left overplayed its hand. Calls to “defund the police” went nowhere with an American public raised on cop shows and inundated with local news about violent crime. Most Americans concluded that racial problems with law enforcement were confined to a few bad apples, and were not systemic. Calls for reparations fell on deaf ears. The 1619 Project, which portrayed America as an evil racist empire redeemed only slightly by the courage and faith of people of color, became a talking point for the right, not the left, during the campaign.
The GOP cranked up the culture wars, and would have won but for Trump’s refusal to take the pandemic seriously. So where does BLM go from here? Acknowledge that the problems are different in different state and local jurisdictions, organize to solve them where they exist, and focus as much on winning hearts and minds as on political action. Favorable portrayals of minorities in the media are more effective ways of generating public sympathy from the white majority than in-your-face gambits like the 1619 Project.