Assume for purposes of argument that the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate. Will they be able to bring Trump back within the guardrails? Probably not. Consider the following:
- APPOINTMENTS: Trump will rely on a series of interim appointments to keep his more egregious nominees in place.
- INVESTIGATIONS: Trump 1.0 stonewalled investigations, litigated, and relied on delays in the judicial process to run the clock out. He’ll do the same thing this time around. In any event, most of what he does is completely transparent, so there isn’t that much to investigate.
- GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWNS: Expect truly epic shutdowns that accomplish very little–that has been our experience to date. ICE has its own statutory funding outside of the budget process.
- WAR POWERS: Expect Trump to continue to launch wars at will. He will argue that Article II authorizes this and that the War Powers Act is unconstitutional. Will the Supreme Court make the ultimate decision? I doubt it.
- IMPOUNDMENT: We may see some definitive litigation on this subject, which would be a plus, but it is far from clear that Trump would comply with a Supreme Court decision that goes against him.
At least Trump wouldn’t be able to appoint any new members of the Supreme Court. That isn’t nothing.