Macron is a brilliant man, and he was right on the big issues. He understood that slow growth was making the French welfare state unsustainable and France itself increasingly irrelevant. He did what he could to solve the problems. In the end, however, he failed. Today, France is caught between the demands of bond vigilantes and a citizenry that refuses to give up even small fragments of its welfare state. In the end, the circle will probably be squared by violence–most likely from a newly repressive state.
Why did Macron fail? Because his communications and political skills were inadequate for a very tough job. Persuading the French people to move into the 21st century was always going to be a difficult sell. I’m not at all sure that anyone could have done a better job than he did. The bottom line, however, is that the French center isn’t holding, and the next leader will probably come from the far right, which has no answers except nostalgia and a big stick. When the history books are written, Macron will get a large part of the blame.