Donald Trump significantly overperformed relative to the conclusions of numerous state polls in 2016. The polling entities made adjustments to address their errors. The adjustments appeared to work in 2018. This year, however, Trump and the GOP have consistently performed about 4 points better than the state and national polls suggested. What is going on here?
We’re all familiar with the aggressive Trump voter–the one who flies an enormous, obnoxious flag in front of his house and on his pickup truck. That kind of voter appears to be the norm. It is possible, however, that there are other people voting for Trump out of perceived economic interest who are embarrassed to admit it and who consequently lie to pollsters. In other words, in spite of appearances and my previous opinion, there still is such a thing as a shy Trump voter.
I can’t explain it any other way.