On the one hand, models tying presidential elections to the state of the economy are currently forecasting an overwhelming Trump victory in 2020. On the other hand, the recent yield curve inversion suggests that investors believe a recession is on the way. Should we root for one?
The amount of harm that Trump could do in a second term is incalculable. And so, yes, as painful as it would be, a mild, well-timed recession might well be a good thing for the country in the long run.
It will be entertaining, in a car crash sort of way, if we do have a recession. You will have Trump screaming for fiscal and monetary stimulus in an effort to keep his job, but that will fly in the face of Republican rhetoric about deficits and soft money during the last recession, and tax cuts for the wealthy, the GOP solution to all economic problems, will accomplish nothing.