If you thought 2018 was a stomach-churning roller coaster of a year, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Here are my predictions for 2019:
- WILL TRUMP BE IMPEACHED? Barring clear evidence of a quid pro quo with the Russians and an erosion of support from his base, no.
- WHAT WILL MUELLER SAY? There will be plenty of credible evidence supporting obstruction of justice and conspiracy counts for impeachment, but not enough to indict. Both parties will claim victory.
- WILL THERE BE A DEBT CEILING CRISIS? Yes. Let’s hope neither party is crazy enough to force a default, but it could happen.
- WILL THERE BE A RECESSION? More likely than not, and it will be a self-inflicted wound, as the markets absorb more Trump unpredictability than they can handle. Trump will, of course, blame everyone but himself.
- WILL THERE BE WAR WITH NORTH KOREA? Trump seems perfectly happy to continue to pretend that he has resolved the North Korean issue, so it will only happen if Kim wants one. That is unlikely.
- WILL THERE BE WAR WITH IRAN? Probably, although it could be postponed until 2020. As I’ve noted before, Plan A won’t work, which leaves war or surrender as Plan B. Trump will need success in a wag the dog war to boost his ratings, and MBS and Netanyahu will be in his ear every day. They will ultimately get what they want.
- A HARD OR SOFT BREXIT? Hope for soft (or better yet, a second referendum), but bet on hard.
- WILL PUTIN TURN THE SCREWS ON UKRAINE? Why wouldn’t he? Europe is divided and effectively leaderless, and Trump certainly isn’t going to stop him.
- WILL TRUMP ABANDON THE TRADE WAR WITH CHINA? This is a tough one. On the one hand, the war with China is the one thing that Trump actually believes in; on the other, he can’t get re-elected if he keeps damaging his base. It could go either way.
- WILL THE WALL BE BUILT? Sure, and Mexico is going to pay for it, too. LOL.