The Democrats don’t have to win Florida in 2020; the more plausible path runs through Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. On the other hand, Florida has 29 electoral votes, so victory there would require flipping only one other state of practically any size. Florida is, therefore, a big prize.
With the exception of 2008, the GOP historically has won statewide races by margins that range from small to positively microscopic. How can the Democrats turn that around? Here are some keys:
1. Shore up the existing welfare state before you expand it. Florida is older than most states, and protecting Social Security and Medicare is a big deal here. The GOP has traditionally run, however absurdly, as the champion of the status quo. Make them pay for their hypocrisy by proposing tax increases to fill the fiscal gaps.
2. Mobilize the Puerto Rican expats. Scott and DeSantis ran away from Trump on his treatment of Puerto Rico in November, and probably saved themselves in the process. Trump himself won’t be able to do that in 2020.
3. The environment means big bucks here. Many Florida voters have been impacted financially by blue green algae, red tide, oil spills, and sea level rise. Trump can’t run away from his anti-regulatory record on these points, either.
These issues will be in the wheelhouse of any possible Democratic nominee; they don’t really require any change in the party’s priorities. The Democrats’ chances of prevailing in Florida in 2020 are, therefore, better than you might think, based on recent history.