In 2024, Biden’s last year in office, inflation was slightly under three percent, GDP growth was between two and three percent, and unemployment was around four percent. Today, inflation is slightly over three percent, GDP growth is projected to be a bit over two percent, and unemployment is around four percent. The numbers, in short, are quite similar.
There are differences. Trump’s economy has been kept afloat by vast investments in AI and data centers. If some portion of that turns into a bubble, as is likely, hold on to your hat. While the unemployment rate is nearly identical, the respective job creation figures are not; Trump’s are much lower, thanks to his limits on immigration. Finally, Trump’s inflation is, for the most part, the result of his stupid war. It is a self-inflicted wound.
The Biden economy was viewed as a failure by the voters. Will Trump suffer the same fate, or will residual fears about wokeness and communism, along with some vigorous gerrymandering, keep the electorate in line? TBD.