As I’ve noted many times before, Donald Trump is a one-trick pony; the only thing he knows how to do is mobilize his base. His tactic is to trigger overreactions by the left, and thereby persuade white workers to choose him over the Democrats even though many of them have doubts about him. It worked in 2016, when Hillary Clinton, with a trunk full of baggage, was the nominee. It did not work in 2018, when he was essentially running against Mr. or Ms. Generic Democrat.
It appears from an article in yesterday’s Politico that some of the putative candidates are falling into Trump’s trap by doubling down on identity politics. If the Democrats’ ultimate objective is just to have a more woke electorate, that is probably a sensible tactic. If, on the other hand, the idea is to, like, win the 2020 election, it is suicide.
The Democratic Party is primarily an identity party. It has always, however, had a white male working class component, as well. The Democrats cannot win national elections without winning over a reasonably large number of these people. Many of them are genuine reactionaries, and are out of reach, but the rest of them are swing voters. Identifying them, and not Trumpism, as the enemy, would guarantee failure in 2020.
The irony is that, given the probable number of female and minority candidates in the 2020 primaries, it is doubtful that basing a campaign on vilifying white “deplorables” will be a winning tactic even in the southern primaries, let alone the general election.