The conventional wisdom is that midterm election results don’t reflect the condition of the markets. And, in truth, the markets will in no way influence the vast majority of voters on this occasion, either. So why do they matter?
They matter because, while Trump has firm control of the CL and Reactionary factions of the GOP, and has long since lost the CDs, the PBPs are still in play. Their loyalty to him is purely transactional. If it appears that an unchecked Trump is going to cost them money over the next two years, they will have no reason to go out and vote for GOP candidates, and some of them probably won’t. In districts that are up for grabs, that will make a difference.