Assume, for purposes of argument, that the GOP suffers a crushing defeat in 2020. Where does it go from there? Here are the possibilities:
1. Shoot the messenger, not the message (Reagan Coalition: Reactionaries/PBPs): Sure, we apologize for supporting someone who was divisive, incompetent, and corrupt. That doesn’t mean there was anything wrong with the mixture of tax cuts, deregulation, and conservative social policy; we just need a more suitable vessel for that policy. Someone who looks and talks like Reagan.
2. The Tea Party, Part Deux (Goldwater Coalition: CLs/Reactionaries): We admit that we made promises about balanced budgets after 2008, and then violated them when in office. This time we really, really mean it. Trust us.
3. Real populism, not the faux kind (Douthat Coalition: CDs/Reactionaries): Down with Wall Street economics, and up with the white American worker! Wall Street will follow, because it has nowhere else to go.
4. The return of compassionate conservatism (Romney Coalition: CDs/PBPs): Hey, it got George W. Bush elected twice. After Trump, he doesn’t look so bad.
#2 and #3 won’t win general elections; #2 repels the center, while #3 turns off the donor class, without which the GOP has no future. The ultimate answer will be one of the other two.