The optimist looks at a second Trump term and imagines something similar to the first one. Sure, the man on golf cart is obnoxious and divisive and corrupt. He moves the culture war further to the right, imposes inflationary tariffs, stabs Ukraine in the back, and gives lavish presents to businessmen who support him. But he doesn’t leave NATO, he doesn’t start any unnecessary wars, he doesn’t shoot protesters, he doesn’t stifle dissent in the MSM and on the internet, and above all, he complies with court orders pertaining to constitutional rights. The most fundamental guardrails against despotism remain in place.
Is this a plausible outcome? Tomorrow, I will describe two darker scenarios, and you can decide for yourself.